According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 22, the average market price of acetic acid was 2600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or 1.52% compared to the price of 2640 yuan/ton on October 11. In the middle of the month, the domestic acetic acid market showed a weak downward trend. Although some equipment on the supply side underwent maintenance, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity decreased slightly. However, downstream demand was average, and the main focus was on purchasing essential goods upon entering the market. The market trading atmosphere was poor, and inventory accumulation among enterprises led to a bearish attitude among industry players. In order to maintain the pace of shipments, acetic acid prices continued to decline.

The raw material methanol market has been fluctuating this week. As of the 22nd, the average price in the domestic market was 2236 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the price of 2242 yuan/ton on October 11th. The average price of methanol in the port market has strengthened, with a focus on actively reducing inventory. The downstream procurement atmosphere is not high, coupled with the accumulation of inventory by mainland enterprises, the suppression of the spot market continues, and the overall performance of the methanol market is weak.
The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride dropping from 4212.50 yuan/ton to 4177.50 yuan/ton from October 11th to 22nd, a decrease of 0.83%. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and declining, and the atmosphere in the acetic anhydride market is bearish. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and follow-up is mainly based on demand. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the price of acetic anhydride is consolidating downward during the cycle.
Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the domestic acetic acid production capacity utilization rate is high, downstream demand follow-up is limited, enterprise inventory is rising, market trading atmosphere is weak, and on-site demand is poor. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak and consolidated in the later stage, and the market supply situation will be closely monitored in the future.

Price trend: (10.1-10.17) fluctuates in a “V” shape

Due to factors such as slow logistics recovery after the holiday and lower than expected downstream demand recovery, market transactions have been sluggish. In order to reduce inventory, production enterprises generally offer discounts on shipments, resulting in a 1.73% drop in the price of dichloromethane in Shandong region. With the release of the news of enterprise parking maintenance, the expectation of tightening supply in the field quickly increased, and prices rose by 2.64%. As prices rise, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials becomes apparent, procurement enthusiasm slows down, and the trading atmosphere fades. In the game pattern of “tight supply” and “insufficient demand follow-up”, dichloromethane is currently stable with a slight decline. According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 1735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% during the period and a year-on-year drop of 39.12%.
Supply side: Device maintenance becomes a turning point in the market
The operating rate of methane chloride plants in the industry has been lowered. It is reported that the 240000 ton methane chloride plant at Shandong Jinling Dawang Factory will be completely shut down for maintenance from October 12th, and is expected to last for about 10 days. The expected tightening of on-site supply supports market sentiment, and the dichloromethane market is recovering.
Cost side: Raw material support has been strengthened, but high inventory pressure still exists
Raw material methanol: Due to issues such as port to ship restrictions, the price of methanol has risen by 3.87% during the cycle. As of October 17th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2324 yuan/ton, which has strengthened the cost support for dichloromethane. However, the methanol market still faces significant supply and inventory pressures, with limited room for price increases. Traders tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in limited support for downstream transmission.
Raw material liquid chlorine: The stable receipt of liquid chlorine in the Shandong region has led to a slight increase in prices, providing mild cost support for dichloromethane.
On the demand side: rigid procurement is the main focus, with limited acceptance of high prices
Downstream industries (such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, solvents, etc.) are currently mainly based on on-demand procurement, and there is no strong demand for centralized stocking. When the price of dichloromethane rises rapidly, downstream enterprises face increased cost pressure, and their procurement behavior immediately becomes cautious, resulting in high priced transactions being blocked, thereby suppressing further price increases. Insufficient demand follow-up is the main factor restricting the current market height.
Market outlook: The moderate increase in raw material costs, coupled with the continued tight supply situation in the market before the resumption of maintenance equipment production, has formed favorable support. Downstream demand has not shown substantial improvement, and the acceptance of high priced sources is limited, which will strictly limit the room for price increases. If demand continues to be sluggish, prices will once again face downward pressure once supply is restored. Pay attention to the resumption of production of enterprises.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (10.13-17), the PVC spot market mainly adjusted within the range, and the price did not change much compared to last week. The market price slightly rebounded after a decline during the week. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4536 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.02% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the ex factory prices of PVC manufacturers mostly remained at last week’s price level, with some slight adjustments controlled at 20-50 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of significant improvement in fundamentals, crude oil prices continued to decline throughout the week, and the futures market maintained a range bound volatile trend. After a decline from the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, PVC prices slightly rebounded towards the weekend and basically returned to the beginning of the week level. The overall oscillation range continues to narrow. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4580-4700 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, as we enter October, the price of calcium carbide continues to decline. This week, the calcium carbide market still shows weakness, and prices continue to decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the decline this week was 0.39%. The weak prices of upstream raw materials have brought certain negative effects to PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that on a macro level, crude oil and futures continue to suppress, and the PVC spot market is lukewarm, mainly due to insufficient downstream operating rates, average demand, and difficulty in changing the supply-demand pattern in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

Product Name: Pure Benzene
Latest price: On October 16th, the average market price was 5478.67 yuan/ton
Analysis: The market price of pure benzene fell today. The continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a lack of confidence in the pure benzene market. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have lowered the price of pure benzene by 100 yuan to 5650 yuan/ton, which will be implemented on October 14th. Shandong’s local refining enterprises continue to lower their quotations, with active shipments from cargo holders being the main focus. Overall, the downstream demand for purchasing gas is somewhat average. It is expected that pure benzene will fluctuate steadily in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in September
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the DOP price was 7367.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 7589.17 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, DOP prices fluctuated and fell, leading to a consolidation of operating loads for DOP enterprises, a slight decrease in operating rates, and a slight reduction in DOP supply; The raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, while the price of phthalic anhydride remained weak and stabilized. The cost of DOP decreased, and the downward pressure on DOP increased; The quality of Jinjiu is insufficient, and downstream demand is difficult to improve. The intention of DOP procurement inquiries is mediocre, and DOP demand transactions are weak. Cost reduction and weak supply and demand resulted in a fluctuating decline in plasticizer prices in September.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell in September
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the price of isooctanol was 6666.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.62% compared to the price of 7216.67 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, the isooctanol enterprise plant remained stable at a high level, and the operating rate of isooctanol equipment remained stable at 96%. The production capacity of isooctanol increased, and the supply of isooctanol increased; In September, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of plasticizers decreased, and the downward pressure on DOP increased.
In September, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride remained weak and stabilized
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 6293.33 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.11% from the price of 6300 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, and the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and stabilized. The cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists. The load of phthalic anhydride equipment slowly increased in September, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises slightly increased. The supply of phthalic anhydride increased, and the cost of plasticizers decreased. The downward pressure on the price of plasticizer DOP increased in September.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, while the price of phthalic anhydride has remained weak and consolidated. The downward pressure on the cost of plasticizer DOP has weakened; On the supply side, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has slightly decreased, the production of plasticizers has decreased, and the supply of plasticizers has decreased; In terms of demand, the quality of Jinjiu is insufficient, the overall economy is sluggish, and downstream demand is weak due to factors such as anti competition and elimination of outdated production capacity. In the future, with weak supply and demand and weakened cost support, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was consolidating in the first half of September and rising in the second half. The spot prices of most brands have been raised. As of September 30th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14466.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 1.52% compared to early September.
Root cause analysis
In terms of supply: During the September period, domestic PC aggregation enterprises experienced narrow fluctuations in load. During the month, Wanhua Chemical underwent routine periodic inspections and restarts, while Lihua Yiweiyuan and Zhejiang Petrochemical completed maintenance. The industry’s operating rate at the end of the month was about 81%, with limited changes compared to the beginning of the month. The average weekly output is about 68000 tons, and the on-site supply is sufficient. In terms of inventory, there is a high-level stalemate, and the pattern of abundant PC supply remains unchanged. However, many aggregation plants have released information on their maintenance arrangements for the fourth quarter, which has led to a significant decrease in future supply and boosted the end of month spot prices. Overall, the weak reality and strong expectations on the PC supply side have raised support for PC at a low level.
In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the above chart, bisphenol A saw a significant increase in the first half of September due to the digestion of enterprise inventory and the improvement of the loose supply pattern. With the recovery of supply, the mentality of operators has loosened. After the upstream phenol and acetone both rose and then retreated, the boost to the bisphenol A market narrowed. Multiple factors caused the spot price of bisphenol A to fluctuate in the middle of the month and fall at a high level in the late month. In addition, there was no significant increase in pre holiday market trading, and the market may continue to experience a pullback in the future, while the support effect on PC costs will weaken.
On the demand side: September is during the traditional peak season for PC, but the downstream factories of the “Golden Nine” this year have not had ideal loads, and the stocking level remains at a weak rigid demand level. The trend of building warehouses in advance before the holiday has not yet started, resulting in a situation of “not prosperous during peak season”. However, the remote maintenance signal at the end of the month stimulated a small increase in the midstream, but the market trading activity before the holiday was still limited, and many merchants saw cash inflows from accompanying shipments. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the price increase of aggregation plants is under pressure and limited. Foreign trade orders are also weak, and terminal enterprises are resistant to high priced sources of goods. After the demand for filling vacancies in the future is met, it is expected that the flow of goods in the market will slow down again. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market rose after a sideways trend in September. The upstream bisphenol A market rose and then fell back, and the cost value supported PC first increased and then loosened. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants remains stable with small fluctuations, and the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Stimulated by favorable long-term maintenance, PC spot prices rose at a low level. However, the pre holiday stocking heat is not good, and it is expected that the PC market will have limited gains in the short term.

In September, the price of calcium carbide showed a continuous upward trend. According to monitoring data from Business Society, it rose from 2393 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2608 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 8.97%. 7、 In August, due to the concentrated maintenance of downstream enterprises of calcium carbide, market demand fell into a slump, and the price of calcium carbide continued to fluctuate downward, gradually accumulating the pressure of losses for production enterprises. In September, demand improved and prices continued to rise. However, in the later period, due to the impact of supply-demand contradictions, there was a high-level consolidation and a weak upward trend.

From the perspective of the supply side, multiple factors have significantly reduced the supply side. Firstly, the continuous losses in the early stage have put pressure on the operation of some calcium carbide production enterprises, resulting in phased shutdowns; Secondly, some power plants in the northwest region have started annual maintenance to prepare for the “summer and winter” season, resulting in an increase in the number of maintenance for their supporting calcium carbide plants. At the same time, some calcium carbide furnaces have undergone planned maintenance, further exacerbating supply shortages.
From the demand side, the reduction in centralized maintenance by downstream enterprises and the recent improvement in the comprehensive profitability of the chlor alkali industry have driven the enthusiasm of chlor alkali enterprises to start production. The National Day holiday is approaching, and in response to the logistics obstruction caused by the restriction of high-speed dangerous goods vehicles during the holiday, downstream enterprises are actively stocking up in advance, further amplifying the current tight supply situation and providing strong support for the upward trend of calcium carbide prices.
Looking at the future, there is an expectation of sustained strength in the start of calcium carbide production in October. The price has significantly increased the enthusiasm of enterprises to resume production. In September, the price of calcium carbide continued to rise, and the profitability of production enterprises shifted from losses to profits, stimulating the motivation for enterprises to start production and resume production in October. In mid October, downstream enterprises will start centralized maintenance, and at the same time, the scale of supporting calcium carbide exports will expand. The combination of these two factors will have a significant impact on the market, pushing the price of calcium carbide into a downward channel. However, the recent increase in the price of raw material blue charcoal has provided some cost support for calcium carbide, and it is expected that the downward trend of calcium carbide prices will be limited, with limited overall room for decline.

The domestic trichloromethane market experienced a slight decline in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 28th, the price of trichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 1883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from 1950 yuan/ton at the beginning of September.

The price of raw material methanol fluctuated and consolidated, while the price of liquid chlorine remained weak and consolidated. The cost support for trichloromethane was relatively weak. As the high temperature weather passes, the demand for downstream R22 has slowed down; The market for trichloromethane has slightly declined.
In September, domestic methane chloride facilities were basically stable, and as of September 28th, methane chloride production had started at around 8.7%.
In September, the prices of raw material methanol were adjusted narrowly, and the prices of liquid chlorine were adjusted weakly. The cost support for trichloromethane was relatively weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 28th, the spot price of methanol was 2257 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% from 2253 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of September 28th, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around -50 yuan/ton.
In September, downstream refrigerant R22 experienced a slowdown in demand and a decrease in price due to the passing of high temperature weather, which weakened the support for the demand for trichloromethane. In addition, the R22 quota has been decreasing year by year, which has a negative impact on trichloromethane in the medium and long term. In 2013, the baseline production quota for second-generation refrigerants in China was 426400 tons. After multiple pressure drops, it will be reduced to 163600 tons by 2025. Among them, the production quotas for R22, R142b, and R141b are 149100 tons, 0.34 tons, and 0.92 tons, respectively.
The methane chloride data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the cost support for trichloromethane is relatively weak; The peak season is gradually coming to an end, and the demand for downstream refrigerant R22 is slowing down. The support for chloroform demand in the later period is limited, and it is expected that the chloroform market will be mainly weakly consolidated in the later period.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has rebounded and fluctuated upwards since September 1st. On September 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 703 yuan/ton, and on September 26th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 743 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.69%.

Lido hits, hydrogen peroxide market continues to rise
Starting from September, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has declined, and some manufacturers of hydrogen peroxide are still stopping for maintenance. The supply pressure has decreased, and there is a long short game, resulting in weak hydrogen peroxide prices. As of September 4th, the average price in the domestic market has dropped to around 690 yuan/ton. The market transactions are average and the market is declining.
In the second week, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry improved, the order volume of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers increased, market transactions improved, the volume of goods increased, supply tightened temporarily, and the market stopped falling and rose. Due to some manufacturers restarting their equipment one after another, the price increase of hydrogen peroxide in this round has been limited, with an overall increase of 20-30 yuan/ton. As of September 16th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market has risen to around 710 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 3% compared to the 8th.
In the latter half of the year, with the support of terminal rigid demand, the transaction volume of hydrogen peroxide market improved, the market continued to recover, and prices continued to rise. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the domestic market has risen to around 740 yuan/ton, an increase of over 4%.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that after the National Day holiday, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry will increase, and the supply of hydrogen peroxide will become tighter. The market trend will continue to rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a narrow upward trend recently. As of September 23, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 73266 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.21% compared to last week (September 16), a decrease of 12.5% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.83%; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company was 71766 yuan/ton, up 2.5% from last week (September 16), down 12.66% month on month, and down 4.82% year-on-year.

The demand growth rate exceeds the supply, and the temporary tight balance is evident
Significant peak season characteristics on the demand side
New energy vehicles: In August, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 27.4% and 26.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales volume of 9.62 million vehicles from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%. The start of the battery factory’s stocking cycle has driven a rebound in demand for lithium carbonate used in power batteries.
In the field of energy storage, the National Energy Administration’s “Energy Storage Action Plan” promotes some provinces and cities to rush to install, further boosting short-term demand. On September 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Guidelines for High Quality Development of Industrial Parks”, which proposed to strengthen the development and utilization of new energy infrastructure such as rooftop photovoltaics, decentralized wind power, diversified energy storage, and charging piles.
Supply side disturbance and increment coexist
Policy restrictions: Eight lithium mica mines in Jiangxi Province have been affected by changes in their mining certificates (requiring mineral type adjustments to be completed before September 30th), and the Jianxiawo mining area under Ningde Times has not resumed production since August, exacerbating market expectations of supply contraction.
Capacity release: The production of lithium extracted from spodumene continues to increase, filling the gap in production reduction of some lithium mica. In September, the weekly production of lithium carbonate in China slightly increased by 544 tons to 19963 tons.

Policy impact: Short term support for prices, long-term regulation of industries
The supply side policy disturbance and the change of lithium mining license policy in Jiangxi Province have become the recent market focus. If most mines are unable to complete the procedures before September 30th, the supply gap may widen, boosting prices in the short term.
According to authoritative sources, relevant departments are preparing to introduce the “Standard Conditions for the Lithium Carbonate Industry”, which plans to set entry thresholds from multiple dimensions such as energy consumption, environmental protection, and technical indicators, and force the elimination of outdated production capacity. The current utilization rate of lithium carbonate production capacity in China is less than 65%, and a large amount of low-cost speculative production capacity is flooding the market. This policy will directly hit the pain points of the industry.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the price of lithium carbonate is affected by the peak demand season stocking and supply side policy disturbances, and has recently experienced a narrow rise. The implementation of Jiangxi’s lithium mine policy on September 30th will be a key node. If the supply shrinks beyond expectations, the price may continue to rise. Conversely, if there is no upward momentum, the price will continue to fluctuate near the cost line, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.