1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on September 19th was 946 yuan/ton, which is 1.39% lower than the average price of 960 yuan/ton on September 15th.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices continued to decline. This week, the internal level operating rate has increased, while the coking level operating rate has remained stable. At present, the supply of ammonium sulfate market is sufficient, but the demand side is still weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is not good. Downstream companies still maintain a wait-and-see attitude and are cautious in their procurement. There is currently no positive news in terms of exports.
market situation
As of September 19th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 860 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 900-950 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent market trend of ammonium sulfate has been weak and has stabilized after a decline. At present, the ammonium sulfate market has strong supply and weak demand, and there is currently no positive information in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 12th to 19th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 7542 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 2.22% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.75%. The domestic BDO market is running steadily, with some equipment undergoing maintenance or reducing production capacity, resulting in reduced supply and industry losses. The supply side intends to shrink in October due to policy support. Downstream maintains contract follow-up, but spot purchases are light under cost pressure. The supply-demand negotiation game has resulted in a stable market focus. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 12th to 19th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 7542 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 2.22% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.75%. The domestic BDO market is running steadily, with some equipment undergoing maintenance or reducing production capacity, resulting in reduced supply and industry losses. The supply side intends to shrink in October due to policy support. Downstream maintains contract follow-up, but spot purchases are light under cost pressure. The supply-demand negotiation game has resulted in a stable market focus.

In terms of supply and equipment, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has decreased, resulting in a reduction in the supply of goods. At the same time, the industry has been suffering long-term losses, and the willingness of suppliers to support the market has increased. Some factories intend to shrink their sales policies for October, while others are temporarily observing. The supply side of BDO is expected to be affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to show an upward trend, with production enterprises shipping smoothly and the overall market supply maintaining a tight pattern. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market continues to be weak. As of 10:00 am on September 19th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2270 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide has seen an upward trend, while methanol has been weakly consolidated, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG production has slightly declined, while the capacity utilization rate of industries such as PBAT has increased, with no significant change in raw material digestion. Approaching the settlement cycle, downstream contract orders are following up or digesting inventory, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement is currently average, with weak spot follow-up due to cost pressures. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, some load reduction devices will operate with increased load, and the supply of BDO will slightly increase; And the industry continues to suffer losses, with suppliers planning to shrink their sales policies to support the market. Downstream maintenance contract follow-up or inventory digestion. Business analyst BDO predicts that the supply and demand of the BDO market will increase, and the domestic BDO market situation will remain stagnant.

In 2025, China’s bisphenol A production capacity will continue to expand. The 180000 ton/year plant in Shandong and the 240000 ton/year plant in Zhenhai were put into operation in June and July respectively, driving further growth in domestic production. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of bisphenol A in China reached 3.1541 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.01%.

The production from January to August 2025 will be 3.1541 million tons, an increase of 12% compared to the same period. With the increase in production, prices are under pressure and falling, especially starting from the second half of the year when new production capacity is added and supply increases. The increased supply is difficult to consume in stages, and price reductions are needed to relieve inventory pressure.
In the third quarter, the profit loss of bisphenol A was significant, and the company gradually reduced its burden and pressure. In addition, the planned maintenance time for the future has been moved forward, and the equipment maintenance is mainly concentrated from September to November. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the 240000 tons/year bisphenol A equipment in Shandong will be launched. However, the production of new equipment is difficult to fully release, and the increase in supply is limited. It is expected that the monthly average production in the fourth quarter will be in the range of 395000 to 42000 tons.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market rebounded and adjusted

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 15th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6300 yuan/ton, which rebounded from the price of 6133.33 yuan/ton on September 8th and increased by 2.72%. This week, the price of ortho benzene was 6400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.59%. The price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and rose, and the cost support of phthalic anhydride increased. The equipment load of phthalic anhydride increased this week, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises increased. The supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient, and the downstream plasticizer market fluctuated and consolidated. The equipment operating load of plasticizer enterprises remained high and consolidated, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride was limited. Due to limited demand support, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose this week.
Rising cost of phthalic anhydride
On September 15th, Sinopec’s ortho benzene quotation was 6400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.59% compared to the ortho benzene quotation of 6300 yuan/ton on September 1st. The price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and risen, the price of ortho benzene has risen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased. This week, the operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment has increased, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises has improved, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient.
Demand side: Downstream production increases, DOP prices stop falling and rebound
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 15th, the DOP price was 7509.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.56% compared to the DOP price of 7467.50 yuan/ton on September 10th. DOP prices have stopped falling and rebounded, DOP companies’ operating load has stabilized, demand for phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and support for phthalic anhydride price increases still exists.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of demand, plasticizer companies are stabilizing their production, plasticizer output is stable, and phthalic anhydride demand support still exists. In terms of cost, the price of ortho benzene has risen, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased. In the future, the cost of phthalic anhydride will increase, and it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will rebound and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 5th to 12th, the domestic ethanol price fell to 5558 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.29% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.71%, and a year-on-year drop of 6.41%. The domestic ethanol market continues to be weak, with factory quotations falling and overall demand being weak. At the same time, enterprise inventories are rising, and ethanol transaction prices are continuously declining.

On the cost side, the circulation of aged corn grains is low, and new grains are gradually being launched. At present, there is a shortage of sales in the production area, and the prices are firm, while the prices in the production area are gradually weakening. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, the impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, the demand side presents a differentiation pattern: the chemical downstream industry has recently seen production reduction or delayed commencement, while the demand of the Baijiu industry has maintained a moderate growth trend. In addition, due to logistics control measures in some regions, the efficiency of product transportation and delivery is limited to a certain extent. Negative factors affecting ethanol demand.
Future forecast: Ethanol production will continue to increase, but there will be an imbalance between supply and demand within the market, with supply exceeding demand. The downstream demand for Baijiu and chemical products is improving, and the consumer side is expected to improve. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term ethanol market will continue to operate weakly.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 8th, the price of isooctanol was 7283.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.32% compared to the price of 7533.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. In September, the isooctanol enterprise’s equipment remained stable at a high level, with a 95% operating rate of isooctanol equipment. In addition, there was a significant increase in isooctanol production capacity, resulting in an increase in isooctanol supply; Downstream plasticizer companies have started production steadily, but the demand support for isooctanol by plasticizers is limited. The increase in supply and demand support is limited, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in September.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 8th, the DOP price was 7517.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.94% compared to the DOP price of 7589.17 yuan/ton on September 1st. Cost reduction and increasing pressure for DOP decline; In September, the operating load of DOP enterprises stabilized, but the demand for isooctanol was insufficient, and the support for the price increase of isooctanol was limited.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, on the supply side, the equipment operating load of isooctanol enterprises remains stable at a high level, coupled with a large amount of new production capacity of isooctanol, resulting in an oversupply of isooctanol. In terms of demand, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient support from isooctanol demand. In the future, the supply and demand of isooctanol will increase, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7428 yuan/ton on September 1st and 7391 yuan/ton on September 5th, a decrease of 0.49%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9683 yuan/ton on September 1st and 9633 yuan/ton on September 5th, a decrease of 0.52%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7982 yuan/ton on September 1st and 7962 yuan/ton on September 5th, a decrease of 0.25%.

Polyethylene prices have declined this week. During the period from August 29th to September 4th, the maintenance loss of polyethylene plants was about 113100 tons, a decrease of 19400 tons compared to the same period last week. Among them, Jilin Petrochemical’s low-pressure, Sinochem Quanzhou low-pressure, Tianjin Petrochemical’s linear, and Shanghai Petrochemical’s high-pressure 1PE plants have been restarted, and production enterprises have rebounded. Production is mainly increasing, coupled with an increase in imported goods and spot goods. On the demand side, downstream demand has improved slightly, but the increase in new orders is slow, and factories are restocking at low prices with insufficient support. On the cost side, the recent decline in international oil prices has weakened the support for the polyethylene market on the cost side. The market speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the polyethylene futures market has weakened, suppressing the spot market.
Next week, Daqing Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical and other facilities are planned to restart, and there is currently sufficient spot supply in the market; In addition, with the continuous production of new devices, the pressure on medium and long-term supply has increased; September is the traditional peak season for polyethylene, with positive expectations on the demand side, but currently downstream new orders are slow; It is expected that the narrow adjustment of polyethylene will be the main focus.

In August, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, and the market price trend continued to decline towards the end of the month. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of August 29th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.4% compared to August 1st.

Price influencing factors:
On the raw material side, the fluctuation of propylene prices in August has limited support for the cost of epoxy propane, and has not exerted significant pressure on the cost of epoxy propane. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6633.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.11% compared to the beginning of this month (6433.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In the first half of the month, due to the resumption of production of Qixiang’s 300000 tons/year plant, the market supply increased to around 19000 tons, and the spot circulation increased to 11500 tons. At the same time, terminal demand has weakened, downstream digestion of previous orders has become the main focus, and prices have fallen from high levels. At the end of August, the Shida epoxy propane unit will be shut down for maintenance. Some factories in Shandong have smooth shipments, but inventory is tight, and there is a positive attitude towards pushing up the epoxy propane market.
On the demand side: In early August, there was insufficient follow-up on downstream demand for epoxy propane, and many downstream customers were in the early stage of digesting orders, resulting in a decrease in purchasing enthusiasm. In late August, the demand for replenishment in downstream industries such as polyether and propylene glycol was released in stages, supporting a rebound in prices. As the end of the month approaches, market demand weakens and epoxy propane prices decline.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the epoxy propane market has sufficient supply, limited support for raw material prices, weak downstream market demand, and weakened trading atmosphere. It is expected that the focus of the epoxy propane market will decline in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and downstream supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic TDI market in East China saw a rebound in gains in August and continued to decline. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 16666 yuan/ton. On August 29th, the TDI price was 14700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.8% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 2.44%.

The TDI market atmosphere in August is quite uncertain. On one hand, there is a continuously tense supply situation. On one hand, high prices lead to low enthusiasm for downstream market entry, with only essential support. The TDI unit of a large factory in Hebei Province is scheduled to be temporarily shut down for maintenance in mid August, lasting about 7 days. Due to tight supply, the Shanghai factory will not accept new orders. The newly built TDI Phase II plant (360000 tons/year) in Wanhua Fujian Industrial Park has been completed and put into operation recently, and has produced qualified products. The duration of force majeure at the TDI factory in Germany has exceeded expectations, and the Shanghai factory has once again lowered its supply to the European market by 10% in China this month. The supplier’s willingness to raise prices remains unchanged, but downstream entry into the market is cautious and there is a shortage of actual orders. The profit market of intermediaries is fast in and out, and under the game of supply and demand, the focus of TDI transactions is constantly shifting downwards.
Supply side: The TDI plant in Yantai will be shut down for maintenance starting from August 19th, with an expected maintenance period of about 40 days.
In August, the upstream toluene was weakly affected by oil prices and supply and demand. From August 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5570 yuan/ton to 5489 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.42% during the period. Affected by the bearish macro trend of crude oil, toluene shows a weak trend.
Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market has experienced a period of decline and the decline is gradually decreasing. As the end of the month approaches, close attention should be paid to the settlement prices of major companies, and it is expected that the TDI market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China region rose step by step this week (8.25-8.29), with an average market price of 269990 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 273220 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.20%.

The market is showing a trend of range oscillation, mainly influenced by the game between the support of low inventory and weak demand. In the spot market, trading is relatively quiet, and downstream purchases are mainly focused on meeting rigid demand, with limited acceptance of high prices. The circulation between traders dominates, but the overall market trading sentiment is cautious, and the trading volume has been slightly increased in a moderate manner.
The supply of raw materials and minerals continues to face obstacles. As an important source of tin concentrate supply, the resumption of mining in the Wa State of Myanmar has been slow, constrained by multiple factors such as the rainy season, equipment shortages, and limited supply, far from meeting market expectations.
On the supply side, Tin Industry Co., Ltd. announced that the company will carry out routine shutdown and maintenance work on tin smelting equipment based on the actual situation. The shutdown and maintenance plan will start on August 30, 2025, with an expected duration of no more than 45 days. From the overall situation analysis, due to the tight supply side, the bottom support of tin prices is significantly stronger.
On the demand side, although the end consumer market has not fully recovered yet, with prices continuing to rise and the traditional sales peak season of gold, silver, and silver approaching, the mentality of downstream electronic and photovoltaic ribbon companies has quietly changed. These companies are concerned about further price increases in the future, so they have begun to adopt a preventive strategy by replenishing inventory when prices are relatively low. This shift from a wait-and-see attitude to actively stocking up has brought tangible buying demand to the market.
comprehensive analysis
The market is about to enter the verification stage, and market participants will closely monitor the order status of downstream electronic and photovoltaic companies during September and October. Expected high volatility in tin prices.