Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices fell sharply in May

According to data from business associations, MTBE market prices fell sharply in May. MTBE prices at the end of May were 4850 yuan/ton, down 10.04% from 5391 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic gasoline market declined for two consecutive months, market turnover showed a weak trend, MTBE market prices fell sharply this month.

Industry chain: In May, the international oil price fell, the gasoline market declined for two consecutive months, and most of the main domestic units failed to complete their monthly tasks, so they mostly adopted price reduction and promotional measures. MTBE demand is weak, and there are many price-cutting actions. The trading atmosphere of MTBE market is cool. The quotations of MTBE manufacturers in North China are still maintained at 4750-4850 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of Business Society Energy Branch believe that the price demand of gasoline market in June is not optimistic, and the domestic MTBE market price is expected to remain stable in June.

On May 26, the fluorite commodity index was 103.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.64% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 110.79% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 2956.25 yuan/ton as of 27 days. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising recently. For the fluorite market purchasing on demand, the price of fluorite market is rising. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of 27 th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2800-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-3100 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2800-3200 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite is rising.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of 27 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11390 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, with the demand for fluorite weakening and the price fluctuation of fluorite running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is 18500-19000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

First, the price trend

This week lead city (05.20-05.25) “V” type trend, the domestic market average price at the beginning of the week in 16175 yuan/ton, the weekend in 16300 yuan/ton, the weekly increase of 0.77%. The lead commodity index of May 24 was 99.20, up 0.68 points from yesterday, down 25.98% from 134.01 at the highest point in the cycle (2016-11-29), up 74.63 from its lowest point of 32.92% on March 19, 2015.

(Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Second, the market trend analysis Domestic market: This week spot lead mainstream trading range in 16000-16375 yuan/ton. This week lead spot market resistance is better, in the general low metal environment to drive a single show in the futures market, this week downstream consumption is still relatively depressed, storage and procurement to just need to fill the warehouse mainly.

Shanghai Area Shanghai brand lead mainstream quotation maintained at about 16350-16450 yuan/ton, brand lead mainly concentrated in Sands, south, silver, etc.

Nonferrous Industries: This week, as Sino-US trade relations escalated again, the United States decided to impose sanctions on Huawei companies, the dollar’s safe-haven value showed a strong trend, standing above the 98 mark, surging to nearly two years high 98.37, and then because the United States economic data performance is not as expected, the dollar high fell sharply below the 98 mark, non-ferrous

Third, the outlook of the aftermarket Next week’s economic data set, the dollar has begun to show a high retreat, or will be this week’s broken decline in non-ferrous metals to form a repair market, but facing the end of the month, from the financial pressure and risk aversion is still the market’s main control factors, alert and concerned about the short power of the futures market and the spot market shippers toss cash. Sino-US trade disputes continue, lead prices are erratic, traders ‘ willingness to ship is stronger than last week, and lead prices are expected to rise next week.

First, the price trend

According to business price monitoring, as of May 23, the domestic methanol market average price reported 2342 yuan/ton, domestic methanol market continued upward.

Second, the market analysis Products: Domestic methanol market performance is strong, local prices continue to move up. Port market, futures performance is fair, narrow shock mainly, the spot market with a small adjustment. In the mainland market, the new olefin plant production is expected to be active, the current Northwest main production area is OK, some of the suspension, and the recent freight continues to rise, the arrival cost has been improved to a certain extent to support the methanol price. It is worth mentioning that the current production area inventory is mostly transferred from the upstream end to the intermediate trade link, and the demand end has no obvious increase and the volume of goods digestion needs a certain period, so the second half of the local increase rhythm or slightly slower.

In addition, beware of rising freight costs on the production area of the rising space of the suppression conduction. Freight, domestic methanol freight local continued to move higher. Inner Mongolia North Line to Lubei Freight reference 300-360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, South Line to Lubei 210-350 yuan/ton, up 20-40 yuan/ton. Shanxi Local to Lubei 120-200 yuan/ton; Guanzhong to Lubei reference 130-170 yuan/ton, to Lunan 150-200 yuan/ton. Ningxia to Lubei part of 280-290 yuan/ton or so.

Xinjiang to Lubei 660-680 yuan/ton, to Wenan 630-650 yuan/ton or so. Industrial chain: Formaldehyde: Formaldehyde market local adjustment. Affected by Lunan methanol rise, local formaldehyde enterprises narrow increase, other areas of temporary stability, downstream market is still just need to purchase mainly, the overall transaction in general, did not change. Acetic acid: Domestic acetic acid market part of the exploration, this month’s export orders concentrated in the recent delivery, to ease the domestic social inventory pressure of acetic acid, and some production enterprises to report a rise in confidence, Jiangsu Thorpe acetic acid device is still low-load operation, some export orders are delivered, North China acetic acid market is relatively optimistic, northwest, north China is still light Dimethyl ether: dimethyl ether price decline, market transaction atmosphere in general. Henan Regional Enterprises Bidding is obvious, the North Henan region fell below the 3,000 Yuan mark, corporate profits upside down losses serious, western Henan the price of high prices, manufacturers to leave the goods deadlocked, inventory pressure is great.

Shanxi Area Orchid is expected to stop at the end of this month overhaul, shipping pressure is small, the mainstream deal on the standard Henan area small decline mainly.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business community Point of view: positive aspects, freight: local freight costs continue to rise, the cost of arrival to improve; Good: part of the olefin plant plans to restart, olefin mining message fermentation, traders to pick up the goods actively; device: Shandong part of the device maintenance, local supply shrinkage. On the negative side, international: the impact of international macro factors, the need for sustained attention; Cargo: Some cargo arrival time delayed, need to be wary of late inventory accumulation. Business Society methanol analysts expect that the short-term domestic methanol market is mainly strong.

The Ammonium Nitrate Commodity Index of May 22 was 103.51, the same as yesterday, down 12.59% from 118.42 at the highest point in the cycle (2019-01-15), up 33.79% from the lowest 77.37 point on October 31, 2016.

(Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to date). Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is stable, affected by environmental control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shutdown more, domestic ammonium nitrate device driving less, but recently with the warmer weather, the northern gas limit effect disappeared, coupled with the domestic downstream civil explosion industry all shut down, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers inventory more, the price trend in the field decline.

As of 22nd domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many areas of manufacturers are forced to production restrictions or cut off maintenance for environmental inspection, the field ammonium nitrate price trend temporarily stable. Recent domestic nitric acid price trend temporarily stable, as of 22nd market price of 1633.33 yuan/ton, nitric acid price trend increase for ammonium nitrate market to bring a certain positive impact, ammonium nitrate price trend is stable; upstream raw material liquid ammonia price trend decline, as of 22nd liquid ammonia market price of 3353.33 yuan/ton, Upstream raw material price trend decline for the ammonium nitrate market to bring a certain negative impact, nitrate market price trend temporarily stable. Recently downstream civil explosion industry peak season, for the ammonium nitrate market demand weakened, ammonium nitrate manufacturers inventory increased, but the liquid ammonia market is also rising trend, ammonium nitrate market due to bad market low shock. Business Society ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price to maintain a shock, but downstream demand is not good, expected late ammonium nitrate market price or maintain low shock.

The hydrofluoric acid Commodity Index of May 19 was 99.91, the same as yesterday, down 28.85% from 140.43 at the highest point in the cycle (2018-02-21), up 86.43% from the lowest 53.59 point on November 30, 2016.

(Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to present) According to statistics, 20th domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose, the current domestic hydrofluoric acid market price of 11080 yuan/ton, domestic hydrofluoric acid start rate of less than 60%, enterprises reflect the current field of hydrofluoric acid spot supply tension, the recent field cargo situation improved, due to the higher raw materials fluorite, Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers raised the factory price, hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid talks in the south is about 10500-11000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11000-11500 yuan/ton.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price increase, spot supply is slightly reduced, but the demand change is not very large, hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose. Recently downstream refrigerant product plant started in low, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand in general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market in general, hydrofluoric acid product price shock. Recently terminal downstream refrigerant market trading market cold, R22 refrigerant device surface started in 60%,R22 market installation rate of temporary stability, the main production enterprises Scatterwater factory price of 18000-19000 yuan/ton between, but the production enterprises do not have scatterwater spot, more than a small number of cylinders shipped mainly. In addition, the actual demand for the market changes little, the shipment market compared to the previous increase. Domestic R134A market price trend is not good, production enterprises plant construction rate to maintain low, refrigerant market demand in general, manufacturers shipped to export-oriented.

But the market transaction price changes are not big, merchants on demand procurement, recently due to tight supply, hydrofluoric acid price trend rose. Refrigerant field transaction situation in general, refrigerant industry installation rate to maintain a low, for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, business analyst Chen Ling think hydrofluoric acid market may continue to rise.

Price Trend

The domestic dimethyl ether Market dropped broadly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market price was 3400 yuan/ton, and the weekend average price was 3226.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price dropped by 5.1%, which was 30.68% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Dimethyl ether (Henan) market prices fell this week, the market trading atmosphere is general. Up to May 17, the parking and maintenance of Hebei Yutai, Henan Qinyang Shengxin and Shandong Yuhuang dimethyl ether plants were not quoted for the time being. Henan Lankao Huitong dimethyl ether ex-factory price is 320 yuan/ton, Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether ex-factory price is 3100 yuan/ton, Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. ex-factory price of dimethyl ether is 3250 yuan/ton, Shandong Dezhou Shengdeyuan Co., Ltd. ex-factory price of dimethyl ether is 3150 yuan/ton, Shanxi Orchid Science and Technology Venture Co., Ltd. ex-factory price of dimethyl ether is 3090 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the domestic methanol market is tidying up in a narrow range. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2,234 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 0,080 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 2.06%, which was 26.17% lower than that of the same period last year. The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market first restrained and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 4 466.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4 383.33 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 1.87%, which was 0.9% higher than that of the same period last year. At present, dimethyl ether is in the off-season, and terminal demand is insufficient to follow up. International crude oil trend shocks, liquefied gas market weakness downward. At the beginning of the week, with the completion of a new round of replenishment in the downstream market, most of them are delisting and wait-and-see. Manufacturers are not able to deliver goods smoothly, and most of them are under inventory pressure. However, the raw material market is strong, the cost support is strong, and the price has been lowered to a low level. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is in a controllable state, and the weekend market has stabilized.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 8 kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector in the 18 th week of 2019 (5.6-5.10). The top three commodities are coke (3.70%), methanol (3.21%) and liquefied natural gas (1.10%). There are 8 kinds of products that have declined annually. The first three products are MTBE (-1.09%), naphtha (-0.90%) and asphalt (-0.68%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.46%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that: the current cost of methanol trend is strong, dimethyl ether profit is small, manufacturers have no willingness to yield, coupled with the current inventory in a controllable state. It is expected that the future market will be stable.

On May 16, according to the monitoring of business associations, the performance of the domestic liquid ammonia market has stabilized. Since last week, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to adjust in a high and narrow range. At present, the market has stabilized and the market has stopped rising. Today’s quotation has not changed much compared with yesterday’s, the transaction is slightly deadlocked. Most of the manufacturers have little stock pressure, and some of the overhauls are mainly carried out. Fufeng, Inner Mongolia, in North China, is still in the overhaul period. The market price remains high. The price quoted by factories in the northern region is maintained in the range of 3350-3500 yuan/ton. The price quoted in the northwest region is about 2800-3000 yuan/ton. The factories ship normally and the downstream factories purchase rationally.

In the future, business associations believe that this week’s market may continue to be high, but due to the lack of favorable market support, we can not rule out the possibility of a small decline in the short term.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market is strong recently. As of May 15, the price of butadiene was 8028 yuan per ton, according to the monitoring of business associations.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic butadiene market is firm and tidy. The high turnover of Northeast supply drives the supply price of other export manufacturers to keep up with the increase. It is difficult to find low-price supply in the market, and the middleman’s offer is relatively firm. Shandong area sent quotation reference 8850-8900 yuan/ton, East China in 8600-8700 yuan/ton, although the downstream transaction follow-up is temporarily limited, but there is no low-price supply premise, some just need passive acceptance.

On the market side, the reference price of butadiene in East China is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton. Businessmen are more cautious in their offer and have a poor intention to deliver at a low price. Negotiate on a single basis. North China butadiene market quotation is around 8900-9000 yuan/ton. Businessmen offer firm, low price and sells at a low price. Sporadic quotations have been heard to keep up, but downstream just need to buy mainly and negotiate with each other.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, Qilu styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 price at 1,1200 yuan/ton, Qilushun butadiene rubber market price at 1,1300 yuan/ton, Tianguo futures closed down, the overall trend of the rubber industry chain is weak, it is still difficult to support the butadiene market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Domestic butadiene manufacturers’prices go up, low-price supply is hard to find, but short-term turnover is difficult to release. In addition, the downstream rubber market is weak, the market is empty and good game, or will aggravate the prudent mentality of businessmen. In view of the short-term no obvious low-price supply outflow, butadiene analysts of business associations expect that the short-term domestic butadiene Market will be maintained for the time being, and suggest that attention should be paid to the closing situation.

On May 13, the PX Commodity Index was 60.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.41% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 31.72% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On the 13th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market, the market of p-xylene was under normal operation. Price trend is stable for the time being. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On May 10, the market price of paraxylene in Asia increased by 5 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 888-890 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 907-909 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative impact on the domestic market price of paraxylene, and the price trend of intra-market paraxylene is temporarily stable.

On May 10, the price of WTI crude oil in June fell to $61.66 per barrel, a decline of $0.04. Brent crude oil in July rose to $70.62 per barrel, a rise of $0.23. The price of crude oil declined, which lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene market was stable. Recently, the textile industry has been stable for a while. PTA prices fluctuated on the 13th day. The average offer price in East China was raised near 6650-6750 yuan/ton. As of the 10th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 80%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate maintained a high level. However, PTA Market prices did not change much. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile in the later period.