According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward this week. From June 16th to 23rd, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 9275 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.35% during the cycle. This week, the butadiene market saw a slight increase. Recently, crude oil prices have risen, and the overall macro situation is improving. The downstream synthetic rubber market has performed well, which has led to an overall upward trend in the butadiene market this cycle. Domestic mainstream production enterprises have generally raised their ex factory prices. However, the overall purchasing intention of downstream in recent times is biased towards rigid demand, and there is a lack of demand support to limit the weekly increase.

On the cost side, the overall crude oil market price closed higher, with the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $74.93 per barrel as of June 20th. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August contract is $77.01 per barrel. On the one hand, the escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to a tight supply of crude oil and a significant rise in the international oil market; On the other hand, the trade negotiations between China and the United States have made good progress, and coupled with the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, favorable factors have supported the international oil market, with the crude oil market mainly rising.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9600 yuan/ton, with an increase of 400 yuan/ton this week.
Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally without any exports, and the quotation is temporarily suspended.
Demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the butadiene rubber market has slightly increased. As of June 23, the market for butadiene rubber in East China has been narrowly consolidated. The futures price of Shunding rubber fluctuated and consolidated, while the supply price of Shunding rubber remained stable temporarily, with slight adjustments in merchant offers. At present, the mainstream prices in Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11900~12150 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced at 11700~11900 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: From a macro perspective, the recent strengthening of the crude oil market will provide a certain boost to the mentality of the spot market. In terms of supply and demand, there will still be some maintenance equipment restarted in China in the near future. The market expects the supply side to be relatively loose. Although holders have a strong reluctance to sell recently, the overall demand side still tends to be rigid in the near future, lacking demand boost, and the market continues to face significant resistance to upward movement. Overall, the supply and demand mentality in the butadiene market is strong, and it is expected that the short-term range oscillation trend will be the main trend.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market adjusted narrowly this week, with an average price of 8230 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8226 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.05% during the week.

News: On June 19th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.80 per barrel, an increase of $0.3 or 0.4%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $78.85 per barrel, an increase of $2.15 or 2.8%.
Cost aspect: Recently, international oil prices have strengthened due to macroeconomic favorable conditions and geopolitical deterioration, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate widely. Pure benzene production has rebounded, and the supply is relatively wide. The pure benzene market has followed the trend of crude oil to rise widely and then fluctuated slightly.
Supply and demand side: Partial styrene plants have restarted, with both production and capacity utilization increasing month on month, indicating loose supply. In terms of demand, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S is weak, with low profit contraction and high finished product inventory, which has dragged down the demand for styrene.
Styrene external market: On June 19th, the closing price of the styrene market in Asia increased by $5/ton, with a closing price of $940-950/ton FOB Korea and $950-960/ton CFR China..
Market forecast: In the short term, geopolitical uncertainty drives wide fluctuations in oil prices, and styrene is greatly affected by this. Therefore, in the short term, styrene will maintain a high volatility trend.

This cycle, the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, with an overall downward trend. At the beginning of this week, the market continued the trend of last week with a slight increase, but with lower downstream purchasing intentions and a lack of demand support, the butadiene market began to decline. Entering the later part of the week, with the weak trend of downstream synthetic rubber futures market and equipment maintenance, the market expects weak downstream demand and a lack of downstream support, and the butadiene market began to decline in the middle of the week.

On the cost side: The crude oil market price has risen significantly. As of the 11th, the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $68.15 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.77 per barrel. The crude oil market has seen a significant increase, mainly due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East region, as well as the good progress made in the China US trade negotiations and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, which have supported the upward trend of the international oil market.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9200 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 600 yuan/ton this week.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the recent (6.1~6.11) butadiene rubber market has fluctuated and weakened. As of June 11th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 11650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.18% from 11910 yuan/ton on the 1st. The price of raw material butadiene continues to decline, and the cost center of butadiene rubber shifts downwards; Shunding rubber production slightly decreased, easing supply pressure; Downstream tire production slightly decreased, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of June 11th, the mainstream prices in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were reported at 11550-11800 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: In the near future, domestic butadiene plants will restart, domestic production will increase, and the arrival of port cargo in East China will also be good. Overall, the market supply is relatively loose. The downstream demand side is unlikely to show significant improvement in the near future, and the decline in the futures market is dragging down market sentiment. The overall fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that the butadiene market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12500 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12533/ton, with a price increase of 0.27%.

Most domestic manufacturers have stable quotes for activated carbon this week, with some rising. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9000-13000 yuan/ton, with tight supply and strong demand supporting the price increase of coconut shell activated carbon. Industry insiders are mostly optimistic about the future market.
Internationally, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells worldwide, will face multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand will experience a reduction in coconut production due to drought and pest infestations, while some production areas in Indonesia will be affected by abnormal rainfall at the end of the rainy season, resulting in a decrease in coconut shell collection efficiency. In the short term, the import price of coconut shell charcoal will continue to operate at a high level.
Prediction: The combination of favorable factors supports the rise in activated carbon prices, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and strengthen in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of June 9th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7450 yuan/ton. Currently, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable, with transaction prices remaining at around 7500 yuan/ton. Downstream demand is average, and shipments are slow, with contract customers placing orders for shipments.
2、 Market analysis
On the demand side: Downstream demand is average, the purchasing atmosphere is quiet, there are prices but no market, inventory pressure is high, factories mainly supply old customers, and the number of new customer orders is limited.
3、 Future forecast
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the cyclohexane market is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term, with limited price fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI market remained stable on the 6th. Currently, the mainstream price for Shanghai goods is 15900-16000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price for domestic sources (PM200) is 16200-16400 yuan/ton. Wanhua started maintenance on June 5th, and the Shanghai BASF and Huntsman units are restarting. The factory has a strong willingness to raise prices, but there is no significant increase in demand. Downstream market entry is cautious, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Intermediaries mainly focus on fast in and fast out, and the current market supply and demand are relatively stable. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

The asphalt market first suppressed and then rose in May. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong Province was 3647 yuan/ton on May 1st, and as of May 30th, the ex factory price in Shandong Province was 3627 yuan/ton.

During the May Day holiday, crude oil prices plummeted, making it difficult for the cost side to support. The market experienced a significant decline in the first half of the year, and the asphalt market fell from a high level due to market competition and shipments. And there is insufficient improvement on the consumer side, especially with the increase in rainy weather, which will limit project construction and terminal demand.
In the latter half of the year, the supply of asphalt in Shandong region was slightly tight, with strong demand and smooth shipments. In addition, the inventory of manufacturers was low, and bidding was raised. The price of asphalt futures market rose, and the overall trend was significantly stronger than that of crude oil. With the continuous rise of the asphalt market, mainstream brand prices have reached a high level, and at the end of the month, the price of Jingbo # 70 trade factory was 3630 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the current asphalt fundamentals have certain support, and the demand side is expected to continue to release in June. From the cost side, there may be fluctuations in operation, and the supply side may be slightly tight during the peak demand season. We can pay attention to the starting prices of major manufacturers each time. The asphalt market may show a strong operating trend in June.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated downward this week. From May 23rd to 30th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 10733.33 yuan/ton to 9800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 8.7% during the cycle. The overall weakness of the domestic butadiene market and the downstream synthetic rubber futures market in this cycle have dragged down the atmosphere of the spot market. Although there were some equipment repairs this week, the supply has slightly declined. However, the pressure on the demand side has had a greater impact on the market, and the trading situation in the spot market is not good, ultimately dragging down the overall market price.

Cost wise: In May, international oil prices first fell and then rose, with an overall upward trend. As of the 26th, the US WTI crude oil market was closed, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $64.74 per barrel. On the one hand, the Middle East region has once again become tense, and this news is positive for the international oil market, with crude oil prices rising; On the other hand, the United States has increased its oil restrictions on a certain country, and the easing of tariffs between China and the United States has led to an increase in international oil prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9800 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 700 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the recent (5.20-5.27) styrene butadiene rubber market has slightly weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 27th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 12366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.51% from 12816 yuan/ton on the 20th. The prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene have declined, and the cost support for styrene butadiene rubber has significantly weakened. Downstream tire production is stable, providing strong support for the demand for styrene butadiene rubber; The start of production of styrene butadiene rubber has risen, and the supply pressure has slightly increased. As of the 27th, the mainstream market price of 1502 styrene butadiene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China is around 12250-12500 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: Some domestic butadiene units are still under maintenance in the near future, and there is still some support in the supply side. However, downstream terminal procurement demand has always been weak, and with the continuous weakening of the synthetic rubber futures market, downstream entry enthusiasm is significantly low, lacking demand support. Under the atmosphere of supply and demand game, it is expected that the butadiene market will maintain a range oscillation trend in the short term.

Aluminum prices rebound in May

Aluminum prices rebounded in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20303.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% from the market average price of 20073.33 yuan/ton on May 1.
Aluminum ingot fundamentals
1. Raw material end: alumina
Domestically, alumina production increased by 8.7% year-on-year from January to April 2025, but decreased by 11.3% month on month in April. Last week, the total operating capacity decreased by 2.9 million tons compared to the previous week, and the operating rate was lowered to 77.02%. However, with the recovery of profits, some of the suspended production capacity has plans to resume production.
In terms of demand, the overall demand for domestic alumina is stable. Although May has entered the traditional off-season for aluminum consumption, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises remains high due to high profits, which supports the demand for alumina. The marginal weakening of export demand led to a year-on-year increase of 101.6% in China’s alumina exports in April, but the import and export window has remained closed for the past two months.
Cost wise: The price of bauxite has fallen, processing fees have increased, caustic soda prices have also weakened, and the production cost of alumina has decreased. As of May 22nd, the average full cost of the alumina industry in May was 2850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from April. The industry profit turned from negative to positive, with an average profit of 106 yuan/ton.
In terms of price: Since May, the domestic spot price of alumina has continued to rise. As of May 29th, the spot price of alumina reached 3294.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.43% compared to the previous month.
2. Aluminum ingot supply end:
The fundamentals of aluminum ingot supply in May showed characteristics such as limited growth in operating capacity, increased production expectations, maintaining a certain scale of imports, and continuous inventory depletion. In May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased slightly, mainly due to the resumption of production by some enterprises in Guizhou and Sichuan. Roughly speaking, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was restored to around 40.92 million tons in May, and the output is expected to increase by 1% year-on-year to around 3.47 million tons. From January to April, domestic electrolytic aluminum maintained a net import status, with net imports of aluminum ingots approaching around 100000 tons in April. The weak demand for overseas aluminum continues, and it is expected that domestic primary aluminum will continue to maintain a certain net import scale in the future.
3. Mainstream social inventory:
Continuous inventory depletion: As of May 26th, the mainstream inventory of aluminum ingots in China was 534000 tons, far lower than the 643000 tons in mid May and the 774000 tons at the end of April, indicating a continuous depletion trend. On the one hand, the decrease in inventory is due to the demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises, and on the other hand, the tight transportation capacity in Xinjiang region has led to poor aluminum ingot shipping, resulting in a decrease in the amount of goods received and stored.
4. Aluminum ingot demand side:

The demand for aluminum ingots in May showed overall support but structural differentiation, with good performance in the new energy sector and export demand, while demand in traditional sectors was relatively weak.