According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a narrow upward trend recently. As of September 23, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 73266 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.21% compared to last week (September 16), a decrease of 12.5% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.83%; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company was 71766 yuan/ton, up 2.5% from last week (September 16), down 12.66% month on month, and down 4.82% year-on-year.

The demand growth rate exceeds the supply, and the temporary tight balance is evident
Significant peak season characteristics on the demand side
New energy vehicles: In August, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 27.4% and 26.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales volume of 9.62 million vehicles from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%. The start of the battery factory’s stocking cycle has driven a rebound in demand for lithium carbonate used in power batteries.
In the field of energy storage, the National Energy Administration’s “Energy Storage Action Plan” promotes some provinces and cities to rush to install, further boosting short-term demand. On September 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Guidelines for High Quality Development of Industrial Parks”, which proposed to strengthen the development and utilization of new energy infrastructure such as rooftop photovoltaics, decentralized wind power, diversified energy storage, and charging piles.
Supply side disturbance and increment coexist
Policy restrictions: Eight lithium mica mines in Jiangxi Province have been affected by changes in their mining certificates (requiring mineral type adjustments to be completed before September 30th), and the Jianxiawo mining area under Ningde Times has not resumed production since August, exacerbating market expectations of supply contraction.
Capacity release: The production of lithium extracted from spodumene continues to increase, filling the gap in production reduction of some lithium mica. In September, the weekly production of lithium carbonate in China slightly increased by 544 tons to 19963 tons.

Policy impact: Short term support for prices, long-term regulation of industries
The supply side policy disturbance and the change of lithium mining license policy in Jiangxi Province have become the recent market focus. If most mines are unable to complete the procedures before September 30th, the supply gap may widen, boosting prices in the short term.
According to authoritative sources, relevant departments are preparing to introduce the “Standard Conditions for the Lithium Carbonate Industry”, which plans to set entry thresholds from multiple dimensions such as energy consumption, environmental protection, and technical indicators, and force the elimination of outdated production capacity. The current utilization rate of lithium carbonate production capacity in China is less than 65%, and a large amount of low-cost speculative production capacity is flooding the market. This policy will directly hit the pain points of the industry.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the price of lithium carbonate is affected by the peak demand season stocking and supply side policy disturbances, and has recently experienced a narrow rise. The implementation of Jiangxi’s lithium mine policy on September 30th will be a key node. If the supply shrinks beyond expectations, the price may continue to rise. Conversely, if there is no upward momentum, the price will continue to fluctuate near the cost line, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.