Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong increased sharply this month: the quotation increased from 2480.00 yuan / ton on September 1 to 2816.67 yuan / ton on September 29, an increase of about 336.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.58%, and a year-on-year increase of 66.01% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose sharply this month, and the urea commodity index was 131.01 on September 28.

Agricultural demand began, printing standards promoted, and prices rose sharply

In the first half of September, the price of urea was basically stable, with a small increase in the first three weeks. However, as soon as the standard printing news was announced on September 21, the price of urea rose sharply, with a weekly increase of 9.27%. At present, the rise of international chemical fertilizer is obvious. From the perspective of demand: the demand increased in September, the agricultural demand began to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand increased, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increased, the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remained at a high level, and it was mainly followed up with an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea entered the centralized maintenance period in September, and the shutdown maintenance has not been recovered (Tianrun, Boyuan, etc.), energy consumption control shutdown (Ningyang, Linggu), fault shutdown (xinlianxin, Dongguang, Jinkai), defect elimination of new units (Haoyuan), safety control (Jinxin), daily output of urea continued to decline in the early stage, with the minimum daily output falling below 120000 tons, Near the end of the month, the output has picked up. At present, the daily output of urea is maintained at about 150000 tons.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea rose sharply this month as a whole: the price of LNG first fell and then rose, and finally stabilized. The quotation increased from 6110.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 6126.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.27%, a year-on-year increase of 135.34% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal rose sharply. The quotation increased from 1127.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1697.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 50.55%, a year-on-year increase of 180.23% over the same period last year. The impact of environmental protection is superimposed, coal mine accidents occur frequently, the supply continues to be tight, the prices of coal and natural gas rise sharply, and the cost of urea increases.

The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply. The quotation increased from 3900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 4850.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 950.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.36%, and a year-on-year increase of 52.36% compared with the same period last year. Driven by the cost, the supply of liquid ammonia is tight, the demand is strong, and the price of liquid ammonia increases greatly. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose sharply this month, from 14500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 17300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 19.31%. The operating rate of melamine has declined, the market supply has been reduced, the export support on the demand side is stable, the domestic demand is flat, the downstream just needs to follow up passively, and the enterprises mainly execute the orders to be issued. The tight market supply drives the market up, with an increase of 17.24% in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, as the price rises to a high level, the resistance to high prices in the downstream increases gradually, and the price continues to rise under pressure, The market operates stably at a high level.

Cost support, reduced supply, printed standard stimulation, urea rose sharply

The urea market may rise slightly in the middle and early ten days of October. Urea analysts of business society believe that after entering October, the urea market has been significantly positive: under the influence of the “double carbon” target, the price of coal and natural gas has been rising all the way and the cost support is good. In October, autumn fertilizer began to be prepared for agriculture. In industry, October and November are the peak seasons for rubber plate factories and melamine factories, and the demand increased significantly. The supply side has been tight, and there are many shutdown and maintenance enterprises. On the whole, the urea cost support is good, the supply continues to be tight, the downstream demand increases, and the urea market may rise slightly in the middle and early October

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (September 28): 21100 yuan / ton

On September 28, the market price of epichlorohydrin fell, down 1.09% compared with the previous trading day and up 45.85% compared with the price on September 1. At present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the glycerol market is running firmly, the cost support is still there, the holiday is approaching, the downstream pre festival goods preparation is coming to an end, the market buying is weak, the operator’s mentality is more wait-and-see, the demand side follow-up is insufficient, the goods holders are mainly active in shipping, and the focus of market negotiation is lower.

It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by weakness in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan increased slightly this week. On September 27, the average market price in Henan was 6537.50 yuan / ton. The price increased by 50 yuan / ton during the week, an increase of 0.77%, an increase of 2.15% compared with August 1.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic cryolite market rose slightly, the upstream raw materials were tight, the production capacity of individual enterprises was low, and the cryolite market operated strongly. As of the 26th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 6300-6500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan was increased by 200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation was 6300-6800 yuan / ton. Domestic cryolite enterprises operate normally, with low inventory, stable downstream demand, stable shipment, tight market supply, high cryolite price and low actual transaction price.

In the downstream aluminum industry, the market first rose and then fell this week. The price at the weekend was 22930.00 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 0.76% compared with the price at the weekend of 22756.67 yuan / ton. The fundamentals of the supply side remained unchanged, the supply was limited, the inventory was low, and the market circulation source was tight. In terms of demand, the demand of the main consumer real estate and transportation industry was large, the demand for aluminum increased, and the aluminum price rose, At present, the market price is relatively high, and the aluminum market trend continues to operate at a high level in the later stage.

3、 Future forecast

The domestic cryolite market is running at a high level, the upstream raw materials are tight, the enterprise quotation is high, the downstream demand is stable, and the enterprise shipment is stable. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable in the later stage, and pay attention to the downstream demand.

According to the statistics of the business agency, the nylon market was affected by the raw material market in mid September, and the nylon price rose sharply. This week (September 20-26), the nylon spot price rose steadily, and the market remained high. As of September 26, the price of nylon filament DTY (excellent product; 70D / 24F) in Jiangsu was 20820 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from last week; The quotation of nylon POY (superior product; 86d / 24F) is 18325 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week; The price of nylon FDY (superior product: 40d / 12F) was reported as 22166 yuan / ton, up 166 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Nylon price chart

From the perspective of price trend, since September, the overall operation of the domestic nylon fabric market has been relatively stable and rising steadily. The demand of domestic nylon spinning enterprises recovered slightly, and the goods were prepared in advance. The transaction turned better, which was conducive to reducing the inventory of nylon chips. With the report on September 14, the quotation of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam increased by 500 to 16000 yuan / ton this week. On September 15, nylon manufacturers raised their prices one after another. The quotation generally increased by 800-1000 yuan / ton, especially nylon FDY. Some manufacturers increased by 1500 yuan / ton. After a round of sharp rise, the high level of raw material side remained stable, the demand side did not improve significantly, the spot price of nylon rose steadily, and the high level of the market remained firm.

The price range of upstream raw materials remained stable at a high level

PA6 is the main raw material of nylon civil silk. As of September 26, the domestic market of PA6 was at a high level and stable. The mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for PA6 medium viscosity 2.75-2.85 is about 17400 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week. Cost side caprolactam has strong support for PA6, and the high spot price range of PA6 remains stable. The demand of downstream enterprises is general, and the on-site trading performance is acceptable. The overall domestic inventory increased slightly, but the operating rate of the industry is generally low. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may be high in the short term.

The supply of cyclohexanone, the upstream raw material of nylon, is tight, the downstream chemical fiber demand has improved slightly, the solvent just needs to take the goods, and the cyclohexanone market is running smoothly. This week, the listing of pure benzene was lowered by 200 yuan / ton, the cost support was weak, and the supply of cyclohexanone was tight. According to the statistics of business agency, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China was 12880 yuan / ton as of September 26. The downstream demand has improved slightly, and it is expected that the short-term cyclohexanone horizontal consolidation will be the main.

Downstream market demand

On the demand side, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, the demand in the downstream market is a little large. According to the Convention, the market trading atmosphere will pick up before the national day. After the national day, with the further release of downstream orders, there are too many uncertainties in the market this year. Market participants need to be cautious whether this wave of market is hoarding goods to rise or the real peak season is coming.

Future forecast

At present, the nylon filament market is supported by raw materials and the high price remains firm. With the stimulation of the signal in the traditional peak season, the demand side has not improved significantly. Most downstream enterprises just need to take goods, the order support is limited, the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high, and the actual trading atmosphere in the venue is not high. Business analysts believe that nylon prices may be high in the short term.

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (September 24): 20333.33 yuan / ton

On September 24, the epichlorohydrin market was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, and increased by 42.03% compared with the price on August 24. At present, the price of raw material propylene is temporarily stable, the glycerol market trend is strong, the cost support is strong, the tight market supply situation continues, some epoxy resin factories in the downstream reduce the negative, the demand side is reduced, and the market is restrained.

It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by high-level game.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of September 23, the comprehensive price of the PC market was 25850.00 yuan / ton. The PC market has operated smoothly this week. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed significantly, and the overall trend remains stable. At present, the supply side is normal, the downstream procurement atmosphere is general, the inventory side operates normally without pressure, the shipment is slow, the contract customers are the main, and the number of new orders is limited.

This week, the overall price of the domestic PC market operated stably, the price fluctuation range was limited, the manufacturers actively shipped, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, the logistics was smooth, the inventory level was normal and there was no pressure, the PC market operated in a narrow range. At present, the supply side was normal, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere still existed, focusing on cautious wait-and-see, maintaining stable, medium and strong consolidation in the short term, and the focus of negotiation was stable, The price range of mainstream products is 25500 yuan / ton.

The mainstream negotiated price of upstream bisphenol A is 25500-25600 yuan / ton. This week, the decline runs, the price drops slightly, the National Day holiday is coming, the downstream has poor willingness to prepare goods, the shipment is slow, and the weak shock operation will be maintained in the short term.

Bisphenol a commodity index: on September 23, the bisphenol a commodity index was 235.57, down 14.19 points from yesterday, down 16.82% from the highest point 283.19 in the cycle (2021-04-16), and up 226.77% from the lowest point 72.09 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to now).

Business community PC analysts believe that: in the short term, the PC market will remain stable, stable and weak. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of goods, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community).

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, titanium dioxide prices have been stable and small this week. The average price of titanium dioxide in the three countries was 20933.33 yuan / ton last week and 20950 yuan / ton this Wednesday. The price increased slightly within the week, with a range of 0.08.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market price is stable and small. Price increase letters from various manufacturers have been issued one after another, including Longbai group, anada, dainterworking, etc. On the basis of stabilizing the price, it is expected that the new order will rise. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 19500-21800 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17600-19500 yuan / ton. At present, titanium dioxide enterprises are limited by the sound of films, more parking, low market operation, and many enterprises have sent letters to raise prices. The trading market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand. The price of raw materials rose slightly this week, and the transaction of new orders was general, mainly focusing on the delivery of early orders. The actual transaction price shall be negotiated.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi continued to rise this week. Affected by environmental protection, the spot supply of titanium ore in Yunnan is relatively tight. The price of titanium ore in Yunnan rises slightly, and the market transaction is relatively good. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1650-1700 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2450 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate will continue to be high and firm, and the actual transaction price will be discussed.

In terms of sulfuric acid, according to the bulk list data of business society, the price of sulfuric acid is stable this week. So far, the average price of sulfuric acid in Shandong is 795 yuan / ton. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, some sulfuric acid manufacturers are under started, the load is reduced, the downstream formic acid market is gradually rising, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that at present, the quotation of titanium dioxide market is strong and upward, and the manufacturers are willing to rise. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. On the whole, the raw titanium concentrate rose, the price of sulfuric acid was stable, and the cost support was acceptable. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be strong and upward in the short term, and the actual transaction price is mainly discussed.

1、 Market price trend chart of nitric acid

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in China this week was 3090 yuan / ton, and the quotation was temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

On September 13, Anhui Jinhe offered 2950 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 3120 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, an increase of 270 yuan / ton compared with last week; The ex factory quotation of Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical concentrated nitric acid is 2650 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week. The production volume is small and there is no inventory; Hongze Yinzhu chemical offers 3000 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid. Anhui Aodeli concentrated nitric acid offers 2950 yuan / ton. The goods in nitric acid market are generally sold, and individual enterprises increase the price of nitric acid supported by raw material liquid ammonia.

According to the monitoring of business society, the production price of upstream liquid ammonia in Shandong was stable this week. Downstream aniline, the domestic market price rose 0.06% this week. Downstream TDI, the market price in East China fell 0.96% this week. Downstream potassium nitrate, Shanxi production price fell 1.22% this week. Downstream ammonium nitrate, the domestic production price was stable this week.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid market demand is general, and nitric acid analysts of business society expect that nitric acid may run smoothly.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (September 16): 2516.67 yuan / ton

On September 16, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 0.40% compared with the quotation on September 13 and 48.92% compared with the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have risen sharply recently, with strong cost support. From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period. There are maintenance plans in Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, and the daily output of urea has declined. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to rise slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2550 yuan / ton.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (September 15): 3535.00 yuan / ton

On September 15, the mixed price of potassium chloride in Qinghai was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on September 133. The demand for international potash fertilizer is strong, and the available supply of domestic potash fertilizer is tight. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. At the same time, the delivery of international potash fertilizer suppliers is delayed and the arrival at the port is limited.

Recently, the price of potassium chloride in Qinghai may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 3400-3800 yuan / ton.