Monthly Archives: December 2025

The domestic fluorite price trend has declined this week (11.29-12.5)

The domestic fluorite price trend has declined this week, with an average price of 3387.5 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 1.81% from the early week price of 3450 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 7.92%.
Supply side: Fluorite spot normal inventory high

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The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tense, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased. However, the spot supply in the fluorite field is normal, and social inventory continues to operate at a high level without obvious signs of depletion. The supply side maintains a stable production rhythm. In addition, production activities will slow down before the end of the year and the mentality of “buying up and not buying down”. The phased replenishment scale has shrunk, and the fluorite shipment situation is not good. The fluorite market trend continues to decline.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market average
This week, the domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions of China is 11700-12200 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, hydrofluoric acid merchants have not been actively purchasing, and the fluorite market is in a fierce game between supply and demand, falling into a “price but no market” deadlock, in the absence of strong demand support. The price of fluorite market continues to decline.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, and the terminal policies of the refrigerant industry are being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, and although there has been no follow-up transaction in the circulation market, enterprises are actively controlling quantity and raising prices by sealing off inventory. The trend of refrigerant market has increased, but caution is still held towards upstream procurement, and the price of fluorite market has slightly decreased.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, the high inventory of fluorite spot goods, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and demand has not actually improved. The fierce game between supply and demand, overall, the fluorite market price is mainly fluctuating at a low level in the short term.

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At the end of the month, the market for refined petroleum coke continued to decline

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke continued to decline at the end of the month. As of November 28th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2323.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from 2330.75 yuan/ton on November 27th.

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On the 28th, the petroleum coke market declined, with average shipments from refineries and a slight decrease in petroleum coke prices. Downstream purchasing sentiment increased, providing limited support for the petroleum coke market and resulting in poor refinery transactions. On the 28th, the import of petroleum coke was mainly based on preliminary orders, with limited new orders signed and a slight decrease in prices.
On the 28th, the market for medium and high sulfur calcined coke fell, mainly due to the downward adjustment of upstream petroleum coke prices. Downstream procurement remained cautious, and calcined coke enterprises were cautious in their quotations.
Market forecast: Currently, the transaction volume of petroleum coke in the local refining industry is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is poor, maintaining the demand for essential petroleum coke. It is expected that petroleum coke will be weakly consolidated in the near future.

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Insufficient demand for cyclohexane market in November, it is stable

1、 Price trend

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According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 6900 yuan/ton. In November, the cyclohexane market mainly operated in a narrow and weak range, with a slight decline of 1.43% in price. The mainstream market negotiations remained stable, with a balance between supply and demand. Insufficient downstream demand resulted in a lack of upward momentum for prices.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of the market, the focus of cyclohexane market negotiations in November was narrow and weak, with insufficient downstream demand. The overall market negotiations were at a low level, with slow inventory consumption and weak willingness to hoard goods. Demand based procurement was the main focus, and industry players were cautious with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
Upstream pure benzene: In November, the upstream pure benzene market remained stable with limited price fluctuations, with a negotiated price of about 7400 yuan/ton. However, due to high port inventories and loose supply, there was insufficient driving force for price increases, resulting in high inventory levels and weak international crude oil prices. The cost side of pure benzene lacked strong support.
In terms of demand, traditional industries such as synthetic fibers and coatings have weak demand, cautious procurement, and slow consumption. Emerging fields such as new energy materials and environmentally friendly plasticizers (such as DEHCH) are gradually releasing demand, but the growth rate is slow. .
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market will mainly experience narrow consolidation. Currently, the supply and demand of the cyclohexane market are balanced, and prices will maintain their current trend.

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Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in December

Aluminum prices rose by 0.78% in November

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Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in November, with an overall upward trend for the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21460 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from the market average price of 21293.33 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared to the market average price of 21933.33 yuan/ton on November 13th, it has decreased by 2.16%.
In November 2025, aluminum prices continued their upward trend from the end of October and repeatedly refreshed their annual highs, achieving a continuous four month upward trend with an overall positive trend.
Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in December
The aluminum price in December still has multiple supports for strong operation, including rigid constraints on the supply side, low inventory levels, and sustained favorable macro environment and demand from emerging fields. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. The rigidity of the supply side is difficult to break without incremental space and the cost is supported
The production capacity ceiling continues to suppress supply: the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China has reached 44.06 million tons, approaching the policy red line of 45 million tons. The utilization rate of production capacity is at a high level, and most of the new production capacity is for replacement projects. For example, the replacement capacity of 210000 tons of Yarlung Electric in Xinjiang will not be put into operation until the end of 2026, and there will be no new production capacity supplementation in December. Overseas, old electrolytic cells in Europe and America are frequently reduced in production due to high electricity prices, and new projects in countries such as India and Indonesia are slow to progress due to power supply constraints. Global supply elasticity has almost disappeared, making it impossible to meet potential demand growth.
2. Upstream raw material and energy costs support the bottom
There is uncertainty in the supply of bauxite, and Guinea has entered the election cycle. As a supplier of 29% of the world’s bauxite, the supply risk has increased, pushing up the expected cost of bauxite. During the northern heating season, the electricity cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shanxi, Henan and other places increased by 80-120 yuan/ton month on month, and some enterprises also lowered their production load. The rise in energy costs further raised the marginal production cost of aluminum, forming a bottom support for aluminum prices.
3. The low inventory pattern remains unchanged, and spot support is strong
The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots has been below 600000 tons for a long time, only 60% of the same period in history. Although there was a slight increase in inventory in November, it is still at a low level in the same period of the past three years. And the increase in the proportion of aluminum to water has led to a decrease in the amount of ingots produced, resulting in a continuous tightening of the available supply of aluminum ingots in the market. Overseas LME registered warehouse receipts once fell below 300000 tons, hitting a new low since 2000. In this low inventory state, the spot premium structure has been strengthened, and the inventory “reservoir” regulation function has weakened. Once there is a small increase in demand, it will drive aluminum prices up, providing a foundation for the strong aluminum prices in December.
4. Strong demand in emerging fields on the demand side to hedge against weakness in traditional industries

Although the traditional construction industry has been affected by winter construction and industry prosperity, with the aluminum profile construction rate dropping to 52.6% and weak demand performance, the strong demand in emerging fields such as new energy is sufficient to form a hedge. In terms of new energy vehicles, the global production of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 25 million units by 2025, with a single vehicle using 50-80kg more aluminum than fuel vehicles, which will continue to drive the growth of aluminum alloy die-casting orders; The installed capacity in the photovoltaic field from January to October reached 280GW, and the demand for aluminum for photovoltaic brackets increased by 45% year-on-year. In December, the photovoltaic industry chain is still in a rush period, and demand will not significantly decline. In addition, the amount of aluminum used in emerging scenarios such as liquid cooled panels in data centers and lightweight alloys for drones is also increasing, which together support aluminum prices.
5. The macro environment is favorable, and the continuation of financial attributes helps to strengthen prices
The positive effects of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut at the end of October and the reduction of some aluminum product trade barriers between China and the United States are still being released. The market’s expectation of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is heating up. If it is implemented, it will further alleviate global liquidity pressure, and a large amount of funds are likely to continue flowing into the commodity market, strengthening the financial attributes of aluminum prices. After the reduction of trade barriers between China and the United States, the export orders of domestic aluminum processing enterprises are expected to continue to be released in December, easing the previous order pressure and enhancing market confidence in the aluminum industry, promoting the maintenance of a strong trend in aluminum prices.

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