The aluminum price fluctuated widely

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 27, 2023 was 18336.67 yuan/ton, down 0.81% per day, down 3.39% from the aluminum price of 18980 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (February 1). After the aluminum price recovered in January, the aluminum price fell in mid-February, and the current price is at the lowest level in the month.

In the long term, the current price has retreated significantly, with an increase of 5.08% compared with the average market price of 17450 yuan/ton of aluminum ingot at the beginning of the recent recovery (July 14, 2022). The recent high price of aluminum appeared on December 5, and the average market price of aluminum ingots was 19536.67 yuan/ton, down 6.14%.

Overview of fundamentals

1. Inventory data

As of February 27, the domestic mainstream social inventory was 1.251 million tons, 1.076 million tons compared with the social inventory at the beginning of the month (February 2), and 185000 tons accumulated.

2. Macro pressure

The US PCE data in January performed better than expected, which may push up the expectations of the Federal Reserve for higher terminal interest rates to some extent. The US dollar rose strongly, and non-ferrous commodities were under pressure as a whole. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will increase the tightening force has made the aluminum price downward under pressure.

Aftermarket forecast

On the supply side, the recent production reduction of boots in Yunnan has been implemented, and the production reduction capacity is slightly higher than expected, and the positive expectation in the early stage is gradually digested. From the inventory data, the downstream consumption has improved, the operating rate of processing enterprises has risen significantly, but it is less than expected, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and it is still in the trend of accumulation, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods is still out of stock. In the short term, electrolytic aluminum will be suppressed by macro factors, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly weak, and the downstream consumption will be seen in the future.

DBP prices fell slightly this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 24, the DBP price was 9462.50 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the DBP price of 9475 yuan/ton on February 17. Fundamental support is limited, and DBP prices fell slightly this week.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and adjusted this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 24, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8325 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the price of 8287.50 yuan/ton on February 17. The price of o-xylene rose, and the price of phthalic anhydride was willing to stand up. The price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, and the rising power of DBP was strong.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the price of n-butanol was 7233.33 yuan/ton, down 3.13% from the price of 7466.67 yuan/ton on February 17. The n-butanol enterprises started to rise, the supply of n-butanol was sufficient, the market demand recovered, the supply and demand increased, the price of n-butanol fell, the DBP cost fell, and the downward pressure of DBP was great in the future.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DBP data analysts of Business News Agency, the raw material phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, while the price of n-butanol fell, and the rise of DBP raw material cost was not supported enough; This week, plasticizer enterprises started to rise, DBP supply increased, and demand remained weak. In the future, the rising cost of plasticizer is insufficient to support the weak demand, and the DBP price is expected to be weak and volatile.

According to the monitoring of the business society, some production enterprises announced export prices, which rose sharply, and the market prices changed little. From February 16 to February 23, the price of domestic BDO rose from 13675 yuan/ton to 13966 yuan/ton, with the price rising 2.13% during the cycle, 23.71% month-on-month and 48.93% year-on-year.

In terms of cost, raw calcium carbide: monitored by the Business Community, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in the Business Community was 3566.67 yuan/ton on February 23, down – 6.55% from the beginning of this month (3816.67 yuan/ton). The production enterprises have positive shipments, high inventories, and the carbide market has fallen again and again. In terms of methanol, the business agency monitored the price of domestic methanol in the East China port to recover and fluctuate, and the price rose from 2711 yuan/ton to 2762 yuan/ton (as of 15:00 on February 23), with a price increase of 1.88% in the cycle. The supply is abundant. The main production enterprises have successively entered the spring inspection. The supply side has been improved, and the methanol market has recovered and fluctuated. BDO costs are mixed.

On the supply side, BDO has a good supply side.

On the demand side, except for the performance of PTMEG-spandex industrial chain in the downstream, the overall demand of other industries is general, and the cost transmission is blocked. The demand for short-term BDO is not good for the time being.

In the aftermarket forecast, manufacturers continue to raise prices to stimulate the market, but the recovery of downstream demand of terminals is less than expected, and the downward transmission of costs is blocked. BDO analysts of the Business Agency predict that the domestic BDO market will be dominated by consolidation.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on February 20 was 94.36, down 0.08 points from yesterday, down 15.38% from the highest point of 111.51 points in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 13.84% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market in the middle of February 2023 was stable and slightly decreased, of which the market price was about 15542.86 yuan/ton on the 1st of this month and 15452.86 yuan/ton on the 20th, with a range of 0.64%. From this month to now, the polyacrylamide manufacturers have sufficient stocks, the downstream demand is general, and the market is not strong enough. Some enterprises have slightly adjusted their prices. Although the production costs of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have been reduced, their market trend is upward due to the strong downstream demand; Due to the weak downstream demand of polyacrylamide, its market is mainly stable and weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the Business News Agency, the market price of acrylonitrile continued to decline in mid-February. As of February 20, the bulk water price of acrylonitrile market was 10525 yuan/ton, down 1.41% from 10675 yuan/ton on February 11 at the beginning of this decade; Among them, the highest price of the stage is 10675 yuan/ton on February 20, and the lowest price is 10525 yuan/ton on February 20. The price of acrylonitrile raw materials fell slightly, while the cost side declined slightly; The stable production and commencement of the downstream have a strong need for support for acrylonitrile, but the downstream has a slight resistance to high-priced sources of goods. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Acrylic acid as raw material: According to the data of the Business Agency, the acrylic acid market in the middle of February went up first and then down. Among them, the average price of quotations in East China was 8000 yuan/ton on February 11 and 8100 yuan/ton on the 20th, up 1.25% this decade; The highest price of the stage is 8200 yuan/ton from the 13th to the 19th, the lowest price is 8000 yuan/ton, and the maximum amplitude is 2.5%. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and decreased, but the cost still remains in the face of acrylic acid support. The supply side of the production enterprise is not loaded high, and the market transaction is just in demand. With the resumption of downstream work in full swing, the demand side has gradually increased, and the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation has steadily risen. With the support of the supply side, it is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of the Business News Agency, in the middle of February, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose from 5724 yuan/ton on February 11 to 5952 yuan/ton on February 15, then fell to 5902 yuan/ton on February 17, and then rose to 6040 yuan/ton on February 20, an overall increase of 5.52% in the current ten days. Cost support is favorable, and domestic LNG prices are expected to rise in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast: the price of acrylonitrile, the main raw material, is down, the production of polyacrylamide is normal, the inventory is sufficient, the downstream demand is general, and the order demand is insufficient. It is expected that the support will be unfavorable in the short term, and the polyacrylamide market will continue to be dominated by a small weak shock.

The domestic acetic acid market is weak and downward, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is increased in the week, the enterprise inventory is accumulated, and the market supply is sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not good, the atmosphere for intra-field trading is weak, and the acetic acid manufacturers have lowered their prices in order to stimulate the shipment, and the focus of acetic acid trading moves downward under the mood of buying up or not buying down.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of the Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3233.33 yuan/ton, down 1.87% from the price of 3295.00 yuan/ton on February 11, and up 8.68% month-on-month. As of February 17, the market price of acetic acid in various regions during the week was as follows:

Region February 11 February 17 Price rise and fall

South China/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ -25

North China/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ -150

Shandong region/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ -125

Jiangsu Province/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 2900 yuan/ton/ -100

Zhejiang Province/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton/ -100

The upstream raw material methanol market rose first and then fell. As of February 17, the average price in the domestic market was 271.00 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.77% compared with the price of 2689.29 yuan/ton on February 11. Downstream demand is weak, and intra-field delivery and investment are acceptable. Some manufacturers adjust their quotations according to the shipment situation, and the overall change is not large. The methanol market is sorted and operated in the week.

The downstream acetic anhydride market was down. As of February 17, the ex-factory price of acetic anhydride was 5287.50 yuan/ton, down 2.31% from the price of 5412.50 yuan/ton on February 11. The upstream acetic acid price fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the downstream demand for acetic anhydride was insufficient, the market negotiation atmosphere was weak, and the acetic anhydride market continued to decline.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the acetic acid analyst of the Business Agency believes that the acetic acid supply is sufficient, the downstream delivery is not good, the market trading atmosphere is weak, the later maintenance device is restarted, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity may continue to increase, and the atmosphere in the market is bearish. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to be weak and sorted, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 rose this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 6153.33 yuan/ton last Friday, and the average price was 6193.33 yuan/ton this Friday, with a price increase of 0.65% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market price of PVC rose slightly this week. At present, the spot market is still in good condition, and the futures fluctuate and rise, driving the confidence of the spot market. Market inquiries increased, and the situation of traders taking goods improved slightly. Downstream enterprises are more wait-and-see, cautious about actual orders, and mainly purchase on demand. Up to now, the domestic price range of PVC5 carbide is mostly around 5900-6350 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on February 16. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was US $78.49/barrel, down US $0.10. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 85.14 US dollars/barrel, down 0.24 US dollars or 0.3%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the data monitored by the Business Society, the average price of calcium carbide was 3683.33 yuan/ton last Friday, and 3583.33 yuan/ton this Friday. The price fell by 2.71% in the week. The price of raw material blue charcoal fell slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide was not supported enough. The downstream PVC market has declined slightly recently, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers for carbide procurement has weakened. In the future, it is expected that the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fall slightly, mainly by sorting: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 3600 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of the Business Agency believe that the spot price of PVC rose this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is acceptable. Futures fluctuated and rose, driving the confidence of the spot market. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market will still fluctuate and operate, and pay close attention to the changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the market price of titanium dioxide was basically stable this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide is 16183.33 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market was at a high level. On the whole, the export market has gradually recovered. Affected by the increase in the price of titanium dioxide market in the early stage, the market of titanium dioxide has improved, the situation of traders taking goods is fair, and the number of new orders has increased. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15000-18000 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is about 14000-14500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region increased this week. At present, the market spot supply is tight and the market price is stable and upward. Up to now, the tax-free quotation of 38-42 grade titanium concentrate is about 1420-1450 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is about 2100-2240 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is running at a high level, and the actual transaction price is not negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market rose. The price of sulfuric acid increased from 231.67 yuan/ton last Thursday to 235 yuan/ton this Thursday, with a rise of 1.44%. The upstream sulfur market has fallen slightly recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market fell slightly, and the titanium dioxide market was fair. On the whole, the downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the titanium dioxide analyst of the Business Agency, the market price of sulfuric acid increased slightly, and the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region increased. The cost support of titanium dioxide is strong, and the demand of domestic titanium dioxide market is moderate at present. It is expected that titanium dioxide will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on February 14 was 105.95, down 0.33 points from yesterday, down 25.72% from the highest point of 142.64 points in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 25.65% from the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot: According to the monitoring data of the Business Agency, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market fell by 0.44% in the first half of February: the main price was 1968.75 yuan/ton on the 1st, and it was reduced to 1960 yuan/ton on the 31st. At present, the water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have sufficient inventory, the improvement of downstream purchase orders is not obvious, the support of raw materials is insufficient, and the domestic polyaluminum chloride market is mainly stable and weak.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the Business Agency, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid rose slightly by 1.3% in the first half of February, and the market remained stable at about 154-156.00 yuan/ton. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid is mainly stable in the near future, with a small increase; From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly and the cost support increased; The market price of downstream ammonium chloride rose slightly, and the analysis believed that the recent slight fluctuation of hydrochloric acid was the main reason.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of Business News Agency, in the first half of February, domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) first went down continuously and then rebounded slightly: from the main price of 6090 yuan/ton on February 1, the market continued to decline, and fell to 5724 yuan/ton on the 13th, down about 6%, and then rebounded to 5808 yuan/ton on the 14th, down 4.63% in half a month. After the holiday, the market resumed work in an all-round way, the supply in the market increased, the demand for replenishment in the downstream was limited, and the market began to oversupply. In some areas of the country, due to the rain and snow weather, the traffic was blocked, and the liquid factory reduced the price for sales. Led by multiple negative factors, it is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to fall in the short term.

Future forecast: mainly due to the continued weakness of downstream demand and the sufficient inventory of manufacturers, the supply of polyaluminum chloride is too large and the demand is too small. It is expected that the recent market of polyaluminum chloride is generally weak and volatile.

Trichloromethane market fluctuated slightly this week (2.6-2.13). According to the data of Business News Agency, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2475 yuan/ton as of February 13, a slight decrease of 1.00% from 2500 yuan/ton last Monday, and the weekly low was 2450 yuan/ton. The downstream trichloromethane refrigerant market started a small number of inquiries after the holiday, and the market transaction was mainly small orders. The inventory of enterprises is not large, the ex-factory price of trichloromethane is slightly adjusted, and the mainstream offer of trichloromethane market is slightly consolidated.

This week (2.6~2.13), the price of raw material methanol decreased slightly, and the cost of chloroform decreased slightly, but still supported. According to the business news agency, the spot price of methanol was 2692 yuan/ton as of February 13, down 0.92% from 2717 yuan/ton on February 6.

In 2023, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons. After the holiday, the price of R22 will rise slightly, but the start of construction will remain low, and the demand for trichloromethane will be primary.

According to the methane chloride data analyst of the Business News Agency, although the demand for trichloromethane is slightly weak at present, the inventory of enterprises is not large, and the refrigerant peak season is coming soon. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will rise after consolidation in the short term.

From February 3 to February 10, 2022, the ex-factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fell from 7166.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7000 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.33%.

Market price of main hydrogenation benzene in China this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Market/ Price on February 3/ Price on February 10/ Up and down

East China/ 7000～7050./6950～7000./-50

Shandong region/ 6800～6900./6750～6850./-50

International crude oil futures closed slightly lower on February 9. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 78.06 US dollars/barrel, down 0.41 US dollars or 0.5%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.50/barrel, down US $0.59 or 0.7%.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on January 13, 2023, and the current price is 6950 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7000 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6903 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6850 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7000 yuan/ton.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-column chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, slightly warmed at the end of August and the beginning of September, and the price mainly declined from October to December, and warmed in January.

In terms of industrial chain: the mixed benzene market fell first and then rose at the beginning of this week, and the crude oil and styrene market both weakened in the early stage, which affected the mentality of the pure benzene market. In addition, the pure benzene inventory was at a high level as a whole, the market trading was slightly light, and the price was down. In the later period, the crude oil rose, the styrene market rose, the pure benzene market atmosphere rose, and the market price rose slightly. The price of hydrogenation benzene is mainly weak this week, and the price of main production areas has been slightly reduced, and the current price is about 7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of the hydrogenation benzene market, the ex-factory price of this week was mainly down, and the main production area was reduced by about 200 yuan/ton. The market price fluctuated in a narrow range following the fluctuation of the pure benzene market, and fell by about 50 yuan/ton in the week. On the supply side, hydrogenation benzene enterprises have a strong attitude of price fixing this week, but the overall market is weak, so the transaction situation is weak. In terms of demand, the trend of main downstream commodities is volatile, the demand has not yet recovered, the demand for raw materials is general, some downstream devices have maintenance plans, and the market is expected to reduce the demand in the future. Overall, the performance of the current industrial chain is generally weak, but the recent rebound of crude oil is obvious, which has some support for the industrial chain. It is expected to maintain a narrow volatility trend in the short term.