Aluminum prices rose by 0.78% in November

Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in November, with an overall upward trend for the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21460 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from the market average price of 21293.33 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared to the market average price of 21933.33 yuan/ton on November 13th, it has decreased by 2.16%.
In November 2025, aluminum prices continued their upward trend from the end of October and repeatedly refreshed their annual highs, achieving a continuous four month upward trend with an overall positive trend.
Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in December
The aluminum price in December still has multiple supports for strong operation, including rigid constraints on the supply side, low inventory levels, and sustained favorable macro environment and demand from emerging fields. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. The rigidity of the supply side is difficult to break without incremental space and the cost is supported
The production capacity ceiling continues to suppress supply: the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China has reached 44.06 million tons, approaching the policy red line of 45 million tons. The utilization rate of production capacity is at a high level, and most of the new production capacity is for replacement projects. For example, the replacement capacity of 210000 tons of Yarlung Electric in Xinjiang will not be put into operation until the end of 2026, and there will be no new production capacity supplementation in December. Overseas, old electrolytic cells in Europe and America are frequently reduced in production due to high electricity prices, and new projects in countries such as India and Indonesia are slow to progress due to power supply constraints. Global supply elasticity has almost disappeared, making it impossible to meet potential demand growth.
2. Upstream raw material and energy costs support the bottom
There is uncertainty in the supply of bauxite, and Guinea has entered the election cycle. As a supplier of 29% of the world’s bauxite, the supply risk has increased, pushing up the expected cost of bauxite. During the northern heating season, the electricity cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shanxi, Henan and other places increased by 80-120 yuan/ton month on month, and some enterprises also lowered their production load. The rise in energy costs further raised the marginal production cost of aluminum, forming a bottom support for aluminum prices.
3. The low inventory pattern remains unchanged, and spot support is strong
The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots has been below 600000 tons for a long time, only 60% of the same period in history. Although there was a slight increase in inventory in November, it is still at a low level in the same period of the past three years. And the increase in the proportion of aluminum to water has led to a decrease in the amount of ingots produced, resulting in a continuous tightening of the available supply of aluminum ingots in the market. Overseas LME registered warehouse receipts once fell below 300000 tons, hitting a new low since 2000. In this low inventory state, the spot premium structure has been strengthened, and the inventory “reservoir” regulation function has weakened. Once there is a small increase in demand, it will drive aluminum prices up, providing a foundation for the strong aluminum prices in December.
4. Strong demand in emerging fields on the demand side to hedge against weakness in traditional industries

Although the traditional construction industry has been affected by winter construction and industry prosperity, with the aluminum profile construction rate dropping to 52.6% and weak demand performance, the strong demand in emerging fields such as new energy is sufficient to form a hedge. In terms of new energy vehicles, the global production of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 25 million units by 2025, with a single vehicle using 50-80kg more aluminum than fuel vehicles, which will continue to drive the growth of aluminum alloy die-casting orders; The installed capacity in the photovoltaic field from January to October reached 280GW, and the demand for aluminum for photovoltaic brackets increased by 45% year-on-year. In December, the photovoltaic industry chain is still in a rush period, and demand will not significantly decline. In addition, the amount of aluminum used in emerging scenarios such as liquid cooled panels in data centers and lightweight alloys for drones is also increasing, which together support aluminum prices.
5. The macro environment is favorable, and the continuation of financial attributes helps to strengthen prices
The positive effects of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut at the end of October and the reduction of some aluminum product trade barriers between China and the United States are still being released. The market’s expectation of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is heating up. If it is implemented, it will further alleviate global liquidity pressure, and a large amount of funds are likely to continue flowing into the commodity market, strengthening the financial attributes of aluminum prices. After the reduction of trade barriers between China and the United States, the export orders of domestic aluminum processing enterprises are expected to continue to be released in December, easing the previous order pressure and enhancing market confidence in the aluminum industry, promoting the maintenance of a strong trend in aluminum prices.