According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will first rise and then fall in May 2025, with a slight increase. From May 1st to 28th, the domestic toluene market price rose from 5390 yuan/ton to 5470 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.48% during the period.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
First half of the month: After the May Day holiday, the crude oil market first fell and then rose, with overall fluctuations and an upward trend, driving the atmosphere of the toluene market. Recently, market fluctuations have mainly been affected by market atmosphere, with weak impact from the supply side. After the holiday, the demand for oil in the Shandong region is still good, and downstream purchases are entering the market. Refinery inventories in Shandong are generally running at a low level, and the ex factory prices of main refineries are generally increasing. The market sentiment in the East China region is still weak, and market trading is slightly sluggish. Overall, the toluene market has experienced a decline followed by an increase this cycle, largely following the fluctuations in crude oil prices.
In the second half of the month, the toluene market remained stable after a volatile downward trend. The sales situation in Shandong region is still acceptable, and the enthusiasm of the oil blending industry to enter the market is still acceptable. The overall demand is relatively rigid. The market atmosphere in East and South China is relatively quiet.
Cost wise: In May, international oil prices first fell and then rose, with an overall upward trend. As of the 26th, the US WTI crude oil market was closed, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $64.74 per barrel. On the one hand, the Middle East region has once again become tense, and this news is positive for the international oil market, with crude oil prices rising; On the other hand, the United States has increased its oil restrictions on a certain country, and the easing of tariffs between China and the United States has led to an increase in international oil prices.
Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of May 28th, East China Company quoted 5400 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5350-5450 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 29, 2025, the price of xylene sold by Sinopec Sales Company has temporarily stabilized, with a current price of 6850 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities are operating stably with normal sales, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton compared to April 27. As of May 28th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $811-813/ton FOB Korea and $836-838/ton CFR China, an increase of $92/ton from April 24th.
Market forecast: The crude oil market has shown significant fluctuations recently, while the toluene market has been greatly affected. There has been little change in supply and demand in the near future, and downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. Under the influence of crude oil fluctuations, the toluene market is expected to experience mainly range based fluctuations in the near future, with specific attention paid to the trend of crude oil.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |