Price trend: (10.1-10.17) fluctuates in a “V” shape

Due to factors such as slow logistics recovery after the holiday and lower than expected downstream demand recovery, market transactions have been sluggish. In order to reduce inventory, production enterprises generally offer discounts on shipments, resulting in a 1.73% drop in the price of dichloromethane in Shandong region. With the release of the news of enterprise parking maintenance, the expectation of tightening supply in the field quickly increased, and prices rose by 2.64%. As prices rise, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials becomes apparent, procurement enthusiasm slows down, and the trading atmosphere fades. In the game pattern of “tight supply” and “insufficient demand follow-up”, dichloromethane is currently stable with a slight decline. According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 1735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% during the period and a year-on-year drop of 39.12%.
Supply side: Device maintenance becomes a turning point in the market
The operating rate of methane chloride plants in the industry has been lowered. It is reported that the 240000 ton methane chloride plant at Shandong Jinling Dawang Factory will be completely shut down for maintenance from October 12th, and is expected to last for about 10 days. The expected tightening of on-site supply supports market sentiment, and the dichloromethane market is recovering.
Cost side: Raw material support has been strengthened, but high inventory pressure still exists
Raw material methanol: Due to issues such as port to ship restrictions, the price of methanol has risen by 3.87% during the cycle. As of October 17th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2324 yuan/ton, which has strengthened the cost support for dichloromethane. However, the methanol market still faces significant supply and inventory pressures, with limited room for price increases. Traders tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in limited support for downstream transmission.
Raw material liquid chlorine: The stable receipt of liquid chlorine in the Shandong region has led to a slight increase in prices, providing mild cost support for dichloromethane.
On the demand side: rigid procurement is the main focus, with limited acceptance of high prices
Downstream industries (such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, solvents, etc.) are currently mainly based on on-demand procurement, and there is no strong demand for centralized stocking. When the price of dichloromethane rises rapidly, downstream enterprises face increased cost pressure, and their procurement behavior immediately becomes cautious, resulting in high priced transactions being blocked, thereby suppressing further price increases. Insufficient demand follow-up is the main factor restricting the current market height.
Market outlook: The moderate increase in raw material costs, coupled with the continued tight supply situation in the market before the resumption of maintenance equipment production, has formed favorable support. Downstream demand has not shown substantial improvement, and the acceptance of high priced sources is limited, which will strictly limit the room for price increases. If demand continues to be sluggish, prices will once again face downward pressure once supply is restored. Pay attention to the resumption of production of enterprises.