1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3780 yuan / ton, down 14.29% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: the overseas epidemic continues to spread, worrying about the shrinking demand for crude oil due to the economic recession, and adding to the OPEC + production increase expectation. Affected by this, the price of international crude oil fell sharply this week, as well as the price of toluene in South Korea, the main source of toluene import. Although domestic enterprises have entered the resumption period and the market demand has gradually improved, the price of toluene in China still follows the decline. At present, China The main price in the East is about 3900 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price fell sharply at the beginning of this week and maintained a wide and volatile trend. As of Friday, Brent futures fell by 17.30%, Brent futures by 14.92%, WTI futures by 23.78% and Dubai futures by 8.30%.

Downstream, TDI: at present, toluene TDI’s external quotation is about $557 / T FOB ARA, and the quotation of domestic goods with tickets is 10500 yuan / T for reference. It is expected that the TDI market trend will be hard to be optimistic next week. Pay close attention to the factory’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. As for PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 5500 yuan / ton, and the latest price of foreign market is about 514 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 532 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will gradually stabilize and fluctuate next week.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, concern about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption. On the whole, it is expected that the price of toluene in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will gradually stabilize next week. In addition, domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. It is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will stabilize and fluctuate next week. However, in the environment of high inventory of toluene industry and not smooth recovery of industrial chain, it is not optimistic to expect the rebound range.