1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the pure benzene ladder rose this month and fell slightly at the end of the month. On November 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5250-5351 yuan / ton, and on December 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 5700-5950 yuan / ton, up 10.94% compared with the end of last month. This month, the highest price of pure benzene appeared on December 24-26, and the highest price was 5800-5950 yuan / ton.
2、 Analysis and comment
1. Crude oil: this month, the international oil price fluctuated upward against the favorable background of the improvement of Sino US trade relations and the deepening of OPEC production reduction. As of December 30, WTI oil price was 5.84% higher than last month, Brent oil price was 8.56% higher than last month.
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2. Product: the port inventory of pure benzene is lower than 100000 tons for two consecutive months, and it is likely to continue to decline. In addition, tight spot supply of pure benzene market this month brought positive results, stimulating the rise of pure benzene. At the end of the month, the atmosphere of pure benzene market negotiation turned light, and the focus of discussion was weak.
3. Downstream: styrene fell in wide swing this month, with the highest price of 7516.67 yuan / ton, the lowest price of 7266.67 yuan / ton, and the maximum price difference of 250 yuan / ton, a monthly drop of 2.02%. This month, aniline was mainly affected by the cost side, with a wide range of shocks. The end of the month is close to the festival, and enterprises reduce prices to stimulate shipment. Overall, it was down 2.01% compared with the end of last month. This month, the lowest price of aniline is 6266.67 yuan / ton, the highest price is 6800 yuan / ton, and the maximum price difference is 533.33 yuan / ton.
4. External market: in the first half of the month, the price of the external market continued to rise, and the Asian pure benzene market was forced to empty in January. In addition, in the later period, the Po shortage in the United States and the demand for pure benzene increased, which caused the price center of the external pure benzene to move up, and the price difference between domestic and foreign pure benzene widened. In the second half of the month, the price of pure benzene in the United States returned to rationality, and the arbitrage window in Asia and the United States was closed. Although the price of pure benzene in the external market was still at a high level, the domestic pure benzene led by it was weakened.
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3、 Future forecast
1. Crude oil: in the later stage, the overall trend of crude oil market is still upward, but there is no further favorable stimulus, and the upper resistance is large.
2. Domestic and foreign markets: near the end of the year, the pure benzene market negotiation atmosphere is relatively weak. In addition, the downstream profit is insufficient, so the pure benzene support is weakened.
Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will weaken slightly in the later stage.
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