In September, the raw material side was strongly supported, and the nylon price was running at a high level. As of September 30, the quotation of nylon filament DTY (excellent product; 70D / 24F) in Jiangsu was 20820 yuan / ton, an increase of 820 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of the month, an increase of 4.1%; The quotation of nylon POY (superior product; 86d / 24F) is 18325 yuan / ton, which is 700 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month, up 3.97%; The price of nylon FDY (superior product: 40d / 12F) was reported as 22166 yuan / ton, up 1566 yuan / ton or 7.6% compared with that at the beginning of the month.

Nylon price chart

From the perspective of price trend, since September, the domestic nylon fabric market has been operating at a high level, and the overall operation is relatively stable and rising steadily. The demand of domestic nylon spinning enterprises recovered slightly, and the goods were prepared in advance. The transaction turned better, which was conducive to reducing the inventory of nylon chips. With the report on September 14, the quotation of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam increased by 500 to 16000 yuan / ton this week. On September 15, nylon manufacturers raised their prices one after another. The quotation generally increased by 800-1000 yuan / ton, especially nylon FDY. Some manufacturers increased by 1500 yuan / ton. In late September, the overall operation was relatively stable and increased steadily.

Under the influence of the dual control policy, the nylon industry has not been spared, and the startup rate of nylon related enterprises will be limited to a certain extent. Nylon manufacturers in Jiangsu stopped production for about 10 days, and the inventory was further reduced.

Strong support of upstream raw materials

The rise of domestic nylon price in September was mainly affected by upstream raw materials. PA6 is the main raw material of nylon civil silk. In September, PA6 was strongly pulled up by the price of upstream raw material caprolactam. As of September 29, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 17333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.59% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, a year-on-year increase of 66.13%.

From the rise and fall of nylon and upstream raw material prices in recent months, caprolactam has started a strong upward trend since mid August. The spot market price has increased from 14200 yuan / ton to 15250 yuan / ton, an increase of about 7.4% in just three weeks. In September, caprolactam strongly supported the cost side of PA6, and the spot price of PA6 continued to rise with the increase of raw materials. At present, it is in the traditional peak season of “golden nine”, the terminal demand is large, and there is a centralized replenishment market within the month. The market fundamentals are stable, and it is expected that the spot price of PA6 may maintain a stable operation in the short term.

The supply of cyclohexanone, the upstream raw material of nylon, is tight, and the market price continues to rise. The domestic cyclohexanone market price rose sharply in September. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 10720 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 12760 yuan / ton, an increase of 19.03% in the month and 90.86% year-on-year.

At the beginning of June, the cyclohexanone market was strong and upward, pure benzene rose steadily, the cost support was relatively stable, the maintenance of downstream caprolactam units was concentrated, the spot supply in the market was tight, and some chemical fiber plants actively purchased. In the middle of the month, the cyclohexanone market rose broadly, and pure benzene was listed twice, with a total increase of 200 yuan / ton to 7850 yuan / ton, which was strongly supported by the cost side. The downstream caprolactam has more shutdown and maintenance, the supply is tight, and the demand for cyclohexanone is increasing. In late June, the cyclohexanone market operated strongly, and pure benzene was listed twice, with a total reduction of 400 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton, lacking support in cost. However, the downstream caprolactam supply is tight. During the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, some chemical fiber plants actively prepare goods and purchase, forming a good demand support for the cyclohexanone market. In addition, there are many parking lots of cyclohexanone, the commodity volume continues to be in short supply, and cyclohexanone runs at a high price.

Downstream market demand

On the demand side, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, the demand in the downstream market is a little large. According to the Convention, the market trading atmosphere will pick up before the national day. After the national day, with the further release of downstream orders, there are too many uncertainties in the market this year. Market participants need to be cautious whether this wave of market is hoarding goods to rise or the real peak season is coming.

Future forecast

At present, the nylon filament market is affected by the raw material market, and the nylon price is running at a high level. Under the influence of the power restriction policy, the nylon industry has not been spared, and the startup rate of nylon related enterprises will be limited to a certain extent. Business analysts expect that in the short term, the nylon market will be stimulated by the traditional peak season signal and the cost side will continue to be promoted. Under the influence of power restriction policy, the domestic nylon price will continue to operate at a high level, and there are still rising expectations.