Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong increased sharply this month: the quotation increased from 2480.00 yuan / ton on September 1 to 2816.67 yuan / ton on September 29, an increase of about 336.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.58%, and a year-on-year increase of 66.01% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose sharply this month, and the urea commodity index was 131.01 on September 28.

Agricultural demand began, printing standards promoted, and prices rose sharply

In the first half of September, the price of urea was basically stable, with a small increase in the first three weeks. However, as soon as the standard printing news was announced on September 21, the price of urea rose sharply, with a weekly increase of 9.27%. At present, the rise of international chemical fertilizer is obvious. From the perspective of demand: the demand increased in September, the agricultural demand began to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand increased, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increased, the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remained at a high level, and it was mainly followed up with an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea entered the centralized maintenance period in September, and the shutdown maintenance has not been recovered (Tianrun, Boyuan, etc.), energy consumption control shutdown (Ningyang, Linggu), fault shutdown (xinlianxin, Dongguang, Jinkai), defect elimination of new units (Haoyuan), safety control (Jinxin), daily output of urea continued to decline in the early stage, with the minimum daily output falling below 120000 tons, Near the end of the month, the output has picked up. At present, the daily output of urea is maintained at about 150000 tons.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea rose sharply this month as a whole: the price of LNG first fell and then rose, and finally stabilized. The quotation increased from 6110.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 6126.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.27%, a year-on-year increase of 135.34% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal rose sharply. The quotation increased from 1127.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1697.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 50.55%, a year-on-year increase of 180.23% over the same period last year. The impact of environmental protection is superimposed, coal mine accidents occur frequently, the supply continues to be tight, the prices of coal and natural gas rise sharply, and the cost of urea increases.

The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply. The quotation increased from 3900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 4850.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 950.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.36%, and a year-on-year increase of 52.36% compared with the same period last year. Driven by the cost, the supply of liquid ammonia is tight, the demand is strong, and the price of liquid ammonia increases greatly. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose sharply this month, from 14500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 17300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 19.31%. The operating rate of melamine has declined, the market supply has been reduced, the export support on the demand side is stable, the domestic demand is flat, the downstream just needs to follow up passively, and the enterprises mainly execute the orders to be issued. The tight market supply drives the market up, with an increase of 17.24% in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, as the price rises to a high level, the resistance to high prices in the downstream increases gradually, and the price continues to rise under pressure, The market operates stably at a high level.

Cost support, reduced supply, printed standard stimulation, urea rose sharply

The urea market may rise slightly in the middle and early ten days of October. Urea analysts of business society believe that after entering October, the urea market has been significantly positive: under the influence of the “double carbon” target, the price of coal and natural gas has been rising all the way and the cost support is good. In October, autumn fertilizer began to be prepared for agriculture. In industry, October and November are the peak seasons for rubber plate factories and melamine factories, and the demand increased significantly. The supply side has been tight, and there are many shutdown and maintenance enterprises. On the whole, the urea cost support is good, the supply continues to be tight, the downstream demand increases, and the urea market may rise slightly in the middle and early October