1、 Price trend
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
According to the monitoring data of the business association, the soda ash market as a whole will show a downward trend in 2020. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 1566.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was 1340 yuan / ton, down 14.47%. As can be seen from the above figure, the price of soda ash is in a state of maintaining stability from January to April. From late April to the end of May, the price goes down. From May to mid August, the price is in a state of consolidation. From August to mid October, the price rebounds, rising to the highest level of 1883.33 yuan / ton in the year. Then, the price continues to weaken from mid October. Soda price has been relatively weak this year.
As can be seen from the figure above, light soda will rise for five months and fall for five months in the whole year of 2020. The biggest increase was in August, up 25.64%.
As can be seen from the figure above, the price of soda ash is at a low level this year. Except for October and November, the price of soda ash has dropped to a low level in three years, which can be described as “walking on thin ice”.
2、 Market analysis
In January, the domestic soda price was weak and stable, the market continued to be weak, and the trading atmosphere was flat. The demand of daily glass, sodium pyrosulfite and styrofoam in the downstream of light alkali is not good. With the gradual progress of the Spring Festival, the atmosphere of market inquiry and trading is gradually weakening, and the overall delivery of the factory is slow. At present, the delivery is mainly stable.
In February, according to the survey data of the business society, the domestic soda consolidation trend was mainly stable. The market fundamentals of soda ash have not changed much, the downstream demand is not good, the transportation is tight, the delivery of enterprises is not smooth, the overall inventory of the market is high, and the price of soda ash is weak in a short period of time.
In March, domestic soda price was basically stable. The domestic soda market as a whole keeps stable operation, the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand continues, and the enterprise’s shipment is poor. Soda demand side support is still weak, the overall market trading is poor, enterprises mostly stable price shipping, demand performance is general, market transactions are flat, soda market may still maintain a weak and stable market operation.
In April, the price of domestic soda ash was weak and stable. The domestic soda market is mainly weak, the market atmosphere is flat, the downstream demand is low, the transaction is general, and the overall pressure of enterprise inventory is still large. The terminal demand is general, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is not good, and soda ash is mainly weak and stable in the short term.
In May this week, the domestic soda price was weak and stable, and the market mainly operated. The market of soda ash in East China is light and stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1200-1380 yuan / ton, while the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1300-1400 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general, and the price of soda ash is weak in the short term. The average operating rate of domestic soda manufacturers is about 80%.
In June, affected by the increase in the volume and low price of sea salt and lake salt, the shipment of well and mineral salt was poor. Since the end of May, some well and mineral salt enterprises have carried out maintenance or limited production. In June, the overhaul of some two soda enterprises has been completed, and the purchase of industrial salt by downstream soda enterprises may increase. However, due to the impact of high inventory, the supply and demand of raw salt and soda are still in a state of contradiction, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. This week, the operating rate of soda plants nationwide was about 70%, lower than that of last week. In the near future, the starting load of soda plant continues to decline, and the supply decreases. Soda market consolidation operation, market atmosphere is not good, downstream market transaction follow-up is weak, enterprises mainly negotiate shipment.
In July, the business community learned that the current soda market is actively moving goods, clearing up inventory is better, and the quotation of enterprises has been raised. According to the data survey, the overall operating rate of soda is about 78%, with little change. Float glass is in good condition. The overall price in North China is rising, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods in the downstream is good. Stimulated by the rising price in Shahe market, the traders are active in taking delivery of goods. The transaction in Central China is good, and affected by the water level of the Yangtze River, the external delivery volume is still small. At present, with the end of rainfall in East China, the number of orders delivered by glass processing enterprises to the real estate industry has increased, and the speed of purchasing glass original pieces is slow Minus.
In August, according to the business news agency, the overall trend of domestic soda ash market was stable and rising, and the price fluctuated. On August 3, it rose by 6.41% in a single day. Main reasons: first, the total inventory of soda ash decreased. In July, the domestic output of soda ash was 2.397 million tons, with a month on month increase of 256 600 tons. In July 2020, the overall operating rate of soda ash was 71.85%, with a month on month increase of 5.27%. The initial soda ash inventory was 1.2501 million tons, which was 1.0233 million tons at the end of the month. The inventory decreased by 226800 tons, or 18.14%. Clearing up inventory is better, and the quotation of enterprises is raised. Second, the soda inventory of downstream float glass industry increased. Recently, the terminal demand of glass spot market has increased steadily, and the orders of processing enterprises have also improved slightly. In order to boost market confidence, production enterprises should take the initiative to pull prices in a timely manner. The speed of purchasing glass by downstream processing enterprises has also improved slightly month on month for later processing. Generally speaking, with the gradual weakening of rainfall and high temperature, the traditional peak sales season will come, and the prices of production enterprises will continue to rise slightly. Third, in the spirit of the soda industry conference at the end of July, the price of soda was increased in August. The price of light soda was increased by 150 yuan / ton on the basis of July, and that of heavy soda was increased by 300 yuan / ton.
In September, the prices of soda ash manufacturers rose. First, the soda ash industry conference was held, and the prices of some manufacturers increased by 200 yuan / ton. The domestic soda ash market trend was relatively strong, and the prices of enterprises increased. Second, the domestic soda ash inventory declined. According to statistics, the inventory continued to maintain a downward trend, with a total of 517300 tons, a decrease of 76700 tons, a decrease of 12.91%. Recently, the number of maintenance enterprises increased. The total operating rate in China is about 76%. However, the overall downstream performance is not so good, most manufacturers still purchase on demand, and it is the double festival that the manufacturers are mainly stable in shipment, and some manufacturers keep their prices unchanged, showing a wait-and-see state.
In October, according to the business news agency, the domestic soda ash market was temporarily stable, the market atmosphere was light, the downstream manufacturers were cautious, and the wait-and-see attitude was dominant. The price of soda ash in Shandong is stable temporarily. The price of mainstream light soda is 1850-1950 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is acceptable. The downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable temporarily in the short term. According to the price of soda ash in Central China, the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton, the market atmosphere is acceptable, but the overall downstream manufacturers are cautious, and the price of soda ash is temporarily stable in the short term.
In November, according to the business news agency, the domestic soda market atmosphere is light, and the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see. The market of soda ash in Southwest China is weak. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak and stable in the short term. Soda ash market in South China is weak. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1800 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. In the short term, the price of soda ash is weak.
In December, according to the business news agency, the domestic soda market atmosphere is light, and the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see. The price of soda ash in Central China is weak. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1200-1300 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. In the short term, the price of soda ash is stable. The price of soda ash in North China is weak. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1400-1500 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. In the short term, the price of soda ash is stable.
Analysts from business news agency believe that: in 2020, the overall price of soda ash will only rise from August to October, when “golden nine silver ten”, the market performance of soda ash will be weak, the prices of manufacturers will be close to the cost line one after another, and some manufacturers have reached the cost line. When downstream manufacturers purchase glass on demand, most of the traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the market price follows the trend. It is expected that there will be no big change in the soda market before the Spring Festival, and the weak and stable market will continue, depending on the downstream market demand.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |