after the end of November, domestic n-butanol fell sharply, with the listing price of Luxi Chemical Industry as an example, just a week of n-butanol decline reached 400 yuan / ton, the market uproar.

The afternoon of November 25th Taixing Sunwood fire, the fire was extinguished in the morning. According to industry sources, the accident caused by the factory or acrylic acid and ester plant shutdown rectification, then there is a strong upward price by the above expectations, or the formation of certain Dumbledore for n-butanol boost.

The cause of the collapse of n-butanol:

After the end of November, domestic n-butanol fell sharply, with the listing price of Luxi Chemical Industry as an example, just a week of n-butanol decline reached 400 yuan / ton, the market uproar. The reason for the dropping trend to start in October: National Day after chemical rose, the market mentality quickly turn, because of the relatively low level of butanol supply (East China Normal main port inventory at 1-1.5 million tons, and 11 months in Jiangyin stock was down to 3000-5000 tons), then the market rose. From a valuation perspective Jinlian butanol, East China market from 5800 yuan / ton rose to 6600 yuan / ton, just two weeks time spot rose to 800 yuan / ton. The rally triggered a series of chain reaction, after mid November butanol three main downstream profit is shrinking rapidly, butyl industry was forced to shut down for maintenance, fast shrinking demand to the potential need for big profits.

Each round of market decline will be accompanied by a panic intensified expectations, Fundamentals of the current status of n-butanol market:

1, the social stock is still low

East China before November 20th after arrival, although the import / domestic arrivals reached 20 thousand tons and are huge, but the flow of supply in the 5000-6000 tons, the actual market supply is only 2000 tons; the lower reaches downstream butyl, and butanol butyl butyl centralized parking impeded transmission is closely related to profit. According to the survey found gold LIAN, stop before most of the downstream plant raw materials Butanol Inventory levels have significantly lower than the standing stock, some even forced to no dilemma, so the raw materials available, arriving about goods can only be used as part of the restoration of the standing stock. Butanol After dropping the butyl factory replenishment imperative.

2, the Shandong area resources mismatch caused panic down

11 months late Hualu-Hengsheng octanol unit switching production Butanol Cause local increased supply, in the northern Hebei haze exacerbate plasticizer enterprises and parking for environmental upgrading, some enterprises are the end of the month to clear inventory demand, although the sales volume is not large, but the enterprises clear inventory pressure! Multiple bad in Shandong Butanol Round down lead.

Miki two days before the accident, through the monitoring of the market transactions, low volume exchange jumped into the hand.

Butanol The transaction

By November 24-25 market into the hands and the amount of trading mentality change exchange perspective, Butanol The mentality of the market gradually stabilized, local enterprises will appear reluctant to sell low-cost, fast changing market expectations in a certain extent also verified the social inventory is low in the short term Butanol The rapidly dropping is provided an opportunity for the downstream market just need. But in the overall inventory is low in the background, the shorter duration of market hunters.

With the volume of re amplification, taking into account the Miki accident will boost the profitability of butyl industry expectations, negative factors pre distress butanol will appear obvious relief, then Butanol Boost the downstream stocking enthusiasm will be more obvious.

Of course, the market also has a different voice: downstream of butyl parking Butanol Such arguments should be negative. The author also made their own interpretation of the above point of view, after 2014 Butanol Acrylate have entered the stage of overcapacity, according to the detection of gold LIAN on 2016 industry started to operate the propylene butyl butyl, industry average operating rate is only 5 or so, and in October Butanol Bikong rise butyl industry operating rate fell below the 40%. face of butyl industry profits well is expected, considering the present situation of butanol industry inventory again low, the author boldly predicted this event or to Butanol Bring a strong boost.