Market Overview: (11.8-11.20)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 20th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 1717 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.08% during the period. Compared to the same period last year, the price has dropped significantly by 44.64%. The brief upward trend in the first half of this month did not continue, and the market returned to the downward channel under the dual negative pressure of supply pressure recovery and cost support collapse.
Supply side: Supply rebound becomes the main cause of price decline
The centralized recovery of devices undergoing early maintenance or load reduction is the core factor that led to the downward pressure on prices during this cycle. The overall operating rate of the domestic methane chloride industry has rebounded to a high of nearly 80%, and the market supply of goods has significantly increased. As a result, inventory pressure continues to accumulate in enterprises. In order to seize limited orders and alleviate inventory pressure, manufacturers have adopted price reduction and promotion strategies, leading to intensified market price competition and a continuous shift in focus.
Demand side: Weak domestic demand is the fundamental constraint, and maintaining stable exports is difficult to reverse the decline
In terms of domestic demand, downstream industries such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides have shown lackluster performance, with procurement mainly focused on small orders for essential needs and a lack of intention for large-scale stocking. The strong sentiment of “buying up, not buying down” in the market further suppresses trading activity.
In terms of external demand, the export volume of dichloromethane in China in October 2025 was 18850.28 tons, a slight increase of 0.11% compared to the previous month, and remained stable overall. The import volume was only 20.54 tons, a decrease of 63.67% compared to the previous period. Although the export market has performed steadily, its scale is limited compared to the huge domestic supply, making it difficult to digest the surge in domestic production and reverse the negative situation caused by weak domestic demand.
Cost side: Support collapse, exacerbating market bearish sentiment
Methanol: As the main raw material, methanol port inventory remains high, and supply continues to be under pressure. Coupled with the futures market hitting a new low, it seriously suppresses market confidence. As of November 20th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 1999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.29% during the period. The continuous decline in raw material costs has weakened the bottom line of dichloromethane prices from below, and the cost support effect has significantly weakened.
Liquid chlorine: Recently, the liquid chlorine market in Shandong has risen first and then fallen, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, resulting in slightly greater pressure on chlor alkali companies to ship. The price of liquid chlorine fluctuates frequently and is generally weak, making it difficult to form effective cost transmission for dichloromethane.
Outlook for the future: The loose supply and demand pattern is difficult to change, and it is expected that short-term weak fluctuations will be the main trend
Overall, negative factors dominate the current dichloromethane market. On the supply side, a high opening rate indicates that the supply of goods will remain abundant; On the demand side, the situation of weak domestic demand is difficult to see significant improvement in the short term; On the cost side, the decline of methanol, the main raw material, is likely to continue and cannot provide effective support. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern by the end of November.