According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 13th to 20th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2370 yuan/ton to around 2315 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.32% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 2.77%, and a year-on-year drop of 5.57%. There are regional differences in the domestic methanol market situation, driven by macro policies, with the mainland being stronger than ports, which has a certain boost to prices. The high import expectations of the port methanol market and the rapid accumulation of inventory expectations have a strong suppression on the market.

As of the close on August 20th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has been raised. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2393 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2434 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2387 yuan/ton. It closed at 2424 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 38 yuan/ton or 1.59% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 762703 lots, with a position of 674733 and a daily increase of -11543.
On the cost side, the digestion speed of raw coal inventory has slowed down, demand expectations are currently unclear, market prices are strong, and cost support is strong. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid has been partially rising, and the factory in Henan has stopped as scheduled. The factory has pushed up prices, and the market has followed suit. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with occasional declines. Raw material methanol continues to weaken, with inadequate cost support. Dimethyl ether: The market for dimethyl ether has stabilized, with some areas experiencing an increase. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the overall recovery of the equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close of August 19th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $321.5-322.5 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton. FOB US Gulf methanol market closing price of 95-96 cents/gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 275.5-276.5 euros/ton, up 3 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the atmosphere of the methanol market will continue to be weak, and market sentiment will be sluggish. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.