Aluminum prices rebound in May

Aluminum prices rebounded in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20303.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% from the market average price of 20073.33 yuan/ton on May 1.
Aluminum ingot fundamentals
1. Raw material end: alumina
Domestically, alumina production increased by 8.7% year-on-year from January to April 2025, but decreased by 11.3% month on month in April. Last week, the total operating capacity decreased by 2.9 million tons compared to the previous week, and the operating rate was lowered to 77.02%. However, with the recovery of profits, some of the suspended production capacity has plans to resume production.
In terms of demand, the overall demand for domestic alumina is stable. Although May has entered the traditional off-season for aluminum consumption, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises remains high due to high profits, which supports the demand for alumina. The marginal weakening of export demand led to a year-on-year increase of 101.6% in China’s alumina exports in April, but the import and export window has remained closed for the past two months.
Cost wise: The price of bauxite has fallen, processing fees have increased, caustic soda prices have also weakened, and the production cost of alumina has decreased. As of May 22nd, the average full cost of the alumina industry in May was 2850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from April. The industry profit turned from negative to positive, with an average profit of 106 yuan/ton.
In terms of price: Since May, the domestic spot price of alumina has continued to rise. As of May 29th, the spot price of alumina reached 3294.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.43% compared to the previous month.
2. Aluminum ingot supply end:
The fundamentals of aluminum ingot supply in May showed characteristics such as limited growth in operating capacity, increased production expectations, maintaining a certain scale of imports, and continuous inventory depletion. In May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased slightly, mainly due to the resumption of production by some enterprises in Guizhou and Sichuan. Roughly speaking, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was restored to around 40.92 million tons in May, and the output is expected to increase by 1% year-on-year to around 3.47 million tons. From January to April, domestic electrolytic aluminum maintained a net import status, with net imports of aluminum ingots approaching around 100000 tons in April. The weak demand for overseas aluminum continues, and it is expected that domestic primary aluminum will continue to maintain a certain net import scale in the future.
3. Mainstream social inventory:
Continuous inventory depletion: As of May 26th, the mainstream inventory of aluminum ingots in China was 534000 tons, far lower than the 643000 tons in mid May and the 774000 tons at the end of April, indicating a continuous depletion trend. On the one hand, the decrease in inventory is due to the demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises, and on the other hand, the tight transportation capacity in Xinjiang region has led to poor aluminum ingot shipping, resulting in a decrease in the amount of goods received and stored.
4. Aluminum ingot demand side:

The demand for aluminum ingots in May showed overall support but structural differentiation, with good performance in the new energy sector and export demand, while demand in traditional sectors was relatively weak.