Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has continued to maintain a strong trend, with spot prices of various brands increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the average price of ABS sample products was 12162.50 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+3.18% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: Recently, the domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage. The current operating rate is not high, and the maintenance of the PetroChina Jieyang unit has not yet resumed, further reducing the industry’s device load to around 56%. The operating rate of ABS aggregation enterprises is not high, and the market supply pattern remains tight. This week, both the weekly production and inventory of production enterprises have decreased. Overall, the supply side’s support for spot goods is still acceptable.

In terms of raw materials, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials this week has been at a high level, with an increase in the acrylonitrile market. The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, and the cost support for acrylonitrile is average; The overall supply of acrylonitrile units has tightened, but downstream products only maintain essential support for acrylonitrile; Overall, in the short term, the supply and demand of the acrylonitrile market are weak, and the market may become stagnant and consolidating.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been observing and adjusting. The continued rise in external prices has boosted market sentiment, but most downstream industries have inverted profits. The operating load of major downstream industries continues to decline, and the demand side is slightly weak and dragging. The overall performance of the butadiene market transaction center has slightly weakened.

Recently, the market price of styrene has stabilized at a high level. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuates, and the cost support for styrene is average. The supply pattern of goods is tight, and on-site inventory has decreased. At the same time, downstream enterprises have weak demand follow-up. It is expected that the styrene market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

In terms of demand: This week, the downstream factories of ABS’s main terminal showed average stocking enthusiasm. Previously, the increase in production scheduling in the home appliance industry was particularly significant, and the overall load of factories on the demand side increased, leading to an increase in demand purchases. But as ABS prices rise, buyers’ resistance to high-end sources of goods gradually becomes apparent. In the second half of the week, traders actively sold goods, with loose quotations and average support from the demand side for the market.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS is still good, and the cost side of ABS is maintained. The operation of petrochemical plants continues to decrease, and the supply pressure is not significant. Due to the increase in ABS prices on the demand side, some buyers have been affected to enter. Merchants engage in price reduction shipping operations. Currently, there is a mutual exchange of long and short positions in ABS, and the ABS market may remain strong in the short term due to the impact of low supply.