According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic PTA market in April showed a “M” trend, showing a general decline. As of April 29, the spot market price in East China was 6180 yuan/ton, down 3.51% from the beginning of the month.

At the end of April, the domestic PTA device load remained around 80%, and in May, restart and maintenance coexisted. In terms of inventory, according to statistics, the current PTA social inventory is maintained at around 2.7 million tons. In April, there was an increase in PTA supply and a decrease in demand, resulting in a slight accumulation of inventory in the market.

In the crude oil market, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) suddenly announced a significant reduction in production at the beginning of this month, which is estimated to exceed 1 million barrels per day. Affected by this news, international crude oil futures prices have strengthened. But with concerns about economic recession and market expectations of further interest rate hikes that may suppress fuel demand growth, prices have fluctuated and fallen. As of April 28th, WTI’s June crude oil futures were trading at $76.78 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for June were trading at $79.54 per barrel.

In April, the PX new device had a load of 90% of Shenghong’s 4 million tons, a load of more than 80% of Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 2.6 million tons, and a load of less than 30% of Daxie Petrochemical’s 1.6 million tons. PX centralized maintenance has begun to materialize, and the operating rate of PX in Asia has rapidly decreased. However, at the end of the month, with the restart or load increase of multiple PX devices, the tight supply of PX in the early stage was slightly alleviated, and the domestic PX device load remained above 70%. The Asian centralized maintenance season is coming to an end, and the cost support for the PTA market from the PX maintenance season is also coming to an end.

Under the background of losses in downstream polyester factories, production began to decrease, and the load continued to be reduced to around 85%. There was a decrease in PTA procurement, and a negative feedback pattern of demand was initiated, with replenishment on demand being the main focus. At the end of the month, the polyester factory sold out at a profit margin, but the profit performance of various varieties remained sluggish, and inventory continued to accumulate. The decline in the production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is more pronounced, continuing to drop below 55%. The domestic market has moderately weakened, and foreign trade orders have not shown signs of improvement. Currently, the overall issuance of new foreign trade orders is still relatively slow.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the support on the cost side has weakened, and PTA itself is under increasing pressure on the supply side as new devices are put into operation. At the same time, after the May Day holiday, the terminal textile off-season will gradually enter, and the demand side will also become weaker. It is expected that the PTA market will still be weak in May.