1、 Price data

As of June 19, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8825.75 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from 8910.75 yuan / ton on June 13. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8800-8900 yuan / ton.

As of June 19, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8716.67 yuan / ton, down 0.91% from 8796.67 yuan / ton on June 13. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8700-8800 yuan / ton.

On June 19, the naphtha commodity index was 108.93, unchanged from yesterday, down 10.45% from the highest point of the cycle (121.64 points 2022-03-10), and up 157.88% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the local refining naphtha price fell at a high level, the refineries actively pushed up, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market mentality was pessimistic, the terminal demand was not significantly good, and the refineries continuously lowered prices and actively shipped.

Upstream: the decline in international crude oil prices is mainly due to the resonance impact of the general decline in the stock market and bulk commodities. Bulk commodity prices are generally at historical highs. Once the market is in trouble, a broad shock correction is inevitable. However, the fundamentals in key areas such as crude oil and agricultural products have not been reversed. In particular, the Russian Ukrainian war has led to tight supply. Therefore, it is expected that it will take time to peak or reverse the downward trend.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of toluene fell continuously this week. On June 10, the price was 9230 yuan / ton, and on June 17, the price was 9060 yuan / ton, down 1.84% from last week. Mixed xylene fell continuously this week. On June 10, the price was 9180 yuan / ton, and on June 17, the price was 8840 yuan / ton, 3.7% lower than last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, up 2.83% from the price of 10600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 67.69% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business agency, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market mentality was pessimistic, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, and the refineries continued to reduce their prices and actively shipped. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may decline slightly.