1、 Price trend

In April, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber fluctuated in a narrow range and closed up slightly. According to the price test of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber in the spot market on April 30 was 8025 yuan / ton, up 1.30% from 7922 at the beginning of the month and 16.42% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main short fiber contract closed at 8026 at the end of the month, up 3.99% from the beginning of the month.

The price rise of polyester staple fiber in April was mainly driven by cost: the price of international crude oil continued to fluctuate at a high level this month due to the expected tightening of supply caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. WTI crude oil rose by more than 5% in April (as of April 28). The oil price fluctuated above US $100 on most trading days in April. The rise of oil price led to the rise of PTA price of staple fiber upstream raw material, with PTA period and spot month rising by 4.87% and 6.09% respectively. However, the trend of ethylene glycol was poor this month. Ethylene glycol futures fell 3.10% and spot fell 5.93% month on month.

2、 Influencing factors

In April, the domestic PTA market fluctuated upward. In April, the restart and overhaul of domestic PTA units coexisted, and the operating load of corresponding PTA enterprises remained at a low level. The operating rate of PTA industry decreased from 74% at the beginning of the month to 67% and rebounded slightly to 73% at the end of the month. Overall, supply is still shrinking. In April, the downstream polyester market was still weak, and many factories reduced production to near 77%. Product inventory accumulation and loss increase, factory shipment pressure is large, and inventory is at a high level in recent years. At the end of the month, with the gradual easing of the problem of poor logistics and the gradual resumption of work and production, the comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang picked up slightly and the demand side improved.

In April, the price focus of ethylene glycol declined and the trading was deadlocked. The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port is relatively concentrated this month, and the inventory at the main port has accumulated significantly. The ethylene glycol operating rate declined this month, and the unit load reduction and shutdown increased. Due to the low operating rate and limited logistics, the polyester manufacturers’ enthusiasm for picking up goods was affected, the remaining MEG tank space in the port continued to be tightened, and the overall supply side was still slightly abundant. At present, the demand support of downstream polyester for MEG is still weak. The average polymerization rate of polyester in April is expected to be around 87%, but there is a strong expectation.

In April, the pure polyester yarn market adjusted slightly, the overall sales were weak, the goods were delivered through negotiation, the inventory was high, and some factories were willing to reduce production in the later stage; Polyester cotton yarn market downturn, prices fell in a narrow range, the overall transaction was light. As of April 29, the average market price of pure polyester yarn was 14425 yuan / ton, down 0.35% from the beginning of the month and up 2.30% year-on-year. The average market price of polyester cotton yarn was 21140 yuan / ton, down 0.19% from the beginning of the month.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that in the short term, Russian oil exports may fall sharply under the expectation of the EU’s plan to implement a severe import ban, international oil prices may still be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and short fiber cost support remains. In terms of supply, due to the repeated domestic epidemic and poor logistics, the load at the supply end of staple fiber is reduced more than that at the demand end. In terms of demand, with the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, the weaving enterprises of downstream yarn mills have improved the terminal orders, the inventory has gradually gone to the warehouse, and the demand may gradually pick up. On the whole, under the cost side support and the expectation of demand recovery, it is expected that the short fiber market will still fluctuate upward in May. Pay close attention to the adjustment of US tariff policy, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the epidemic situation and the changes in raw material prices.