1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene rose broadly this week and the increase slowed down. On March 4, the price was 7950 yuan / ton; On Friday (March 11), the price was 8430 yuan / ton, up 6.04% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 43.43%.
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2、 Analysis and comment
This week, the international oil price plummeted after surging, but the price of toluene rose continuously and the increase slowed down. Although the downstream demand is limited and toluene mainly fluctuates with crude oil, under the pressure of high cost, the burden of toluene industry has decreased and the supply has decreased.
In terms of the external market, the external market plummeted after the Asian toluene shock this week. On Thursday (March 10), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1044 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $33 / ton, or 3.06%.
In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fluctuated sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the tension between Russia and Ukraine escalated, the United States and European allies considered the embargo on Russian oil, the fear of supply tension intensified, crude oil continued to rise, and European and American crude oil futures rose to the highest since July 2008. On Wednesday, crude oil plunged by more than 10% due to market speculation that the United Arab Emirates and Iraq supported OPEC to further increase production. As of March 11, Brent fell $5.44 / barrel, or 4.61%; WTI fell $6.35/barrel, or 5.49%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China stabilized after rising this week. The price was 19075 yuan / ton on March 4 and 19500 yuan / ton on March 11, up 2.23% from last week and 1.74% from the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price rose broadly this week. On Friday (March 11), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9500 yuan / ton, up 11.76% from last week and 41.79% from the same period last year. Due to the rising downstream demand, the price trend of domestic p-xylene rose. As of the 10th, the closing price was US $1254-1256 / T FOB Korea and US $1272-1274 / T CFR China
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In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 9698.6 yuan / ton on March 4 and 9976 yuan / ton on March 11, up 2.86% from last week and 41.85% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the influence of geopolitical situation still exists, but the market is concerned about whether OPEC will increase production. The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty, and the short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
The demand for downstream chemical products is weak, the negotiation is general, and the operator is cautious. However, due to the impact of cost, some units operate under reduced load, and the support of superimposed crude oil and gasoline for toluene still exists, so it is difficult for toluene to have a large decline in the short term. In the short term, the fluctuation of crude oil continues to follow the trend of toluene. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline and diesel oil, as well as the impact of toluene plant dynamics, downstream plant dynamics and demand on toluene price.
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