Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver in the early trading on May 16 was 4667 yuan / kg, down 5.29% from 4927.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (May 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 2.16%.

On May 16, the spot market price of gold was 396.19 yuan / g, down 2.30% from the early average price of 405.51 yuan / g at the beginning of the month (May 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 6.4%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

1. Domestic news

The central bank conducted a one-year MLF of 100 billion yuan on the 16th, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.85%, the same as before

For households who purchase ordinary self owned houses with loans, the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial individual housing loans for the first set of houses shall be adjusted to not be lower than the market quotation interest rate of loans for the corresponding period by 20 basis points, and the lower limit of the interest rate policy of commercial individual housing loans for the second set of houses shall be implemented in accordance with the current provisions.

Future forecast

Overseas inflation expectations have intensified. The European Commission predicts that inflation in the eurozone will reach 6.1% in 2022, compared with 3.5% in February, and will fall to 2.7% in 2023, much higher than the ECB’s target. The Fed’s interest rate hike has led to frequent interest rate hikes by central banks, and the international monetary easing policy has been gradually tightened to suppress the price of precious metals of interest free monetary assets. Risk aversion will be released in the short term, and it is expected that the weak operation will be dominated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rebounded after falling this week. On May 6, the price was 7610 yuan / ton; On Friday (May 13), the price was 7630 yuan / ton, up 0.26% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 25.29%.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the first half of the week, due to the wide decline of crude oil, the weakening of gasoline market and the poor mentality of mixed xylene spot market, it followed the decline of main refineries. Crude oil rebounded higher in a wide range on Wednesday, coupled with the sharp rise of mixed xylene in Asia in the external market, which gave positive support to the cost side. The restart of downstream PX plant, the expected increase in demand and the increase in export orders of toluene also boosted the mixed xylene market, and the domestic market price rebounded.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in Asia rose broadly this week. On Thursday (May 12), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $1214.5/ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $98 / ton, or 8.78%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 1188 US dollars / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 59 US dollars / ton or 5.23%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose after a wide decline this week, and the market fluctuated left and right under the fundamentals of good supply and bad demand. As of May 13, Brent fell 0.84 USD / barrel, or 0.75%; WTI rose $0.72/barrel, or 0.66%.

In the downstream, PX market, domestic PX rose broadly this week. On Friday (May 13), the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, up 4.49% from last week and 45.31% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China was stable this week. On Friday (May 13), the price of ox in East China was 8200 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week and up 32.26% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rebounded after falling this week. The price was 8907.4 yuan / ton on May 6 and 8618 yuan / ton on May 13, down 3.25% from last week and up 14.29% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the fear of tightening oil supply remains unabated. However, high oil prices are bad for the economy and demand, and there is still a risk of violent fluctuations in short-term crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The external price is high, which supports the domestic market well in the short term, and the price of mixed xylene is expected to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 rose sideways this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of May 12, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 15900 yuan / ton, up or down by + 0.85% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam rose overall this week. Crude oil fluctuated violently under the influence of the increasingly tense situation in Eastern Europe. Raw materials pure benzene and caprolactam were supported. In addition, some caprolactam enterprises planned to overhaul their units in the early stage, resulting in reduced supply and rising prices. Downstream procurement is based on demand and mainly on maintaining production. It is expected that the caprolactam market may rise and then consolidate horizontally in the short term.

The overall cost of caprolactam in the upper reaches of PA6 was positively supported this week. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was generally stable at about 70% in the month, with limited change. In terms of news, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has become increasingly tense recently, and the strong operation of international crude oil prices does not have the expected obvious support and transmission effect on the cost side of PA6. The supply side of PA6 continued the previous abundant pattern. The load of downstream enterprises fell narrowly this week, the demand was weak, and the on-site trading was general. Recent health incidents have hindered the logistics in many places in East China, resulting in the weakening of some PA6 demand.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: the spot price of PA6 is running sideways this week, the trend of caprolactam is generally rising, and the cost support of PA6 is OK. Downstream enterprises tend to take goods on bargain hunting and just need to take goods to maintain production. It is expected that the market trend of PA6 may be dominated by stalemate in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 11, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9633 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 8 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 10200 yuan / ton), the price increased by 567 yuan / ton, down 5.56%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that after the labor day in May, the domestic n-butanol market rose broadly. At the end of last week, the n-butanol market in Shandong rose to a high level, with reference to around 10200 yuan / ton. Entering this week, the downstream of n-butanol was cautious in the face of high price procurement, the wait-and-see mood became stronger, and the demand side support weakened. From the 9th, the center of gravity of n-butanol in Shandong fell, and the quotation of n-butanol factory was adjusted downward one after another. As of May 11, the outgoing price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9500-9800 yuan / ton, which was about 400-600 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week, with a reference decrease of 5.56% during the week. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol is acceptable, and the transaction at low price is better.

In terms of upstream propylene, during the May Day holiday, international crude oil continued to rise under the influence of geopolitics, driving up the price of downstream basic chemicals. Under the transmission of costs, most commodities ushered in a round of price rise after the holiday, with propylene rising by 400 yuan / ton as a whole. On May 8, the main stream of propylene (Shandong) quoted 8800 yuan / ton. This week, the propylene market fell. According to the monitoring data of business society, on May 10, The reference price of propylene was 8676.80 yuan / ton, up 3.12% from May 1 (8414.60 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, after the correction of the n-butanol market, the downstream demand support is OK, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is mild. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the consolidation and operation of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is the main, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes of supply and demand.

On May 10, the natural rubber commodity index was 36.83, up 0.95 points from yesterday, down 63.17% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 35.01% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020.

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in early May 2022

According to the monitoring of business society, from May 1 to 10, the average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in China’s East China market fell from 12512 yuan / ton to 12100 yuan / ton, and then rebounded to 12420 yuan / ton, of which the lowest point was 12100 yuan / ton on the 9th, and the highest point was the mainstream price during the May Day holiday at the beginning of this month.

Figure 3: K-bar chart of natural rubber market in early May 2022

Industrial focus: on the supply side, the rainfall in Thailand’s production area during May Day is unfavorable to rubber cutting, the output of new rubber is low, and is gradually increasing. Vietnam’s output is normal, but its export is not much; At present, the main production areas in China have been cut one after another. Although the production area in Hainan has been delayed, it is expected to increase the quantity one after another by the end of May, and the entry of new rubber into the market may be postponed to June. On the demand side, the current consumption off-season is superimposed with the impact of public health events, the commencement of downstream product enterprises is limited, the rubber delivery in Shanghai and other places is difficult, the circulation of raw materials and finished products is partially blocked, the export demand decreases and it is difficult to recover in the short term. The slowdown of internal and external demand leads to heavy inventory of finished products of tire enterprises, high pressure to go to the warehouse, the commencement of enterprises is affected, and the procurement demand is slow. On the inventory side, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, the delivery rate picked up and the warehousing rate decreased. In terms of import and export, the tense situation of containers continues, the arrival time of shipping schedule is delayed seriously, and the port transportation is not smooth, and the source of tradable goods is locally tense; According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9, China imported 536000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2022, down 7.1% from 577000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to April 2022, China imported 2.397 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.3% over 2.367 million tons in the same period in 2021.

Figure 4: trend chart of crude oil market in early May 2022

Macro aspect: the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $103.09/barrel, down US $6.68 or 6.1%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $105.94/barrel, down US $6.45 or 5.7%. The continuous sharp decline of the stock market has affected the market mentality, and the epidemic prevention measures in Asia have exacerbated the market’s concern about the demand prospect; In addition, the oil giant Saudi Arabia lowered the official price of crude oil in Asia and Europe in June, putting short-term pressure on oil prices.

Hot spots of this month: 1. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9, China imported 536000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2022, down 7.1% from 577000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to April 2022, China imported 2.397 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.3% over 2.367 million tons in the same period in 2021.

2. Data show that in the first quarter of 2022, Indonesia exported 540000 tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber), a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. From January to March, the total export of natural rubber to China was 48000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%; The total export of mixed rubber to China was 5400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51%.

3. The latest data show that in the first four months of 2022, the rubber export volume of C ô te d’Ivoire totaled 397803 tons, an increase of 3.7% compared with 383655 tons in the same period of 2021.

4. According to the latest data, the United States imported 70.69 million tires in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. Among them, the import of passenger tires increased by 12.9% year-on-year to 40.41 million; The import of passenger car tyres increased by 7.1% year-on-year to 13.4 million; Aircraft tires increased by 63% year-on-year to 78000; Motorcycle tyres increased by 22% year-on-year to 1.03 million; Bicycle tires increased by 14% year-on-year to 3.07 million. From January to March, the United States imported 11.22 million tires from China, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, passenger tires decreased by 23% year-on-year to 690000; Passenger car tyres increased by 11.5% year-on-year to 630000.

5. On May 4, 2022, the EU ordinary court of first instance ruled that the European Commission’s anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders on huaka bus tires should be revoked, and the European Commission and its supporters should bear the litigation costs. The revocation effect covers the enterprises filing the lawsuit. (other litigants include representatives of more than 20 Chinese exporters such as Zhongce, triangle, Fengshen, Linglong, shuangqian, Chaoyang Langma, Shuangxing, Guilun, Sailun, Wanda Baotong, Pulin Chengshan, Wanli, GM, Hantai, Jiatong, etc.) According to relevant laws, the European Commission still has two months to decide whether to appeal the judgment. If the European Commission abandons to appeal after two months, the ruling will come into force, and the “double anti” tax paid by the importer suing the enterprise will be returned in full.

6. According to the weekly report data reported by key enterprises, the China Automobile Industry Association calculates that in April 2022, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to complete 1171000 vehicles, with a month on month decrease of 47.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.1%. From January to April, the sales volume is expected to be 7.68 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%.

7. The latest data show that in April this year, China’s heavy truck market sold about 46000 vehicles, down 40% from 77000 vehicles in March and 76% from 193000 vehicles in the same period last year, with a net decrease of nearly 150000 vehicles. 46000, the lowest sales volume in April since 2007, only higher than 33500 in 2006. April this year is also the 12th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year. After April, the heavy truck market from January to April 2022 achieved a total sales of 278000 vehicles, a decrease of 62% and 447000 vehicles compared with 725000 vehicles in the same period last year!

Future forecast: the output and arrival date of new rubber did not meet the expectations, and the local liquidity source was a little tight; Due to the low consumption season and high inventory pressure, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is suppressed, which is expected to be slightly supported in the short-term shock. We will focus on the impact of public health events on ship cargo imports and key domestic circulation places.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13483 yuan / ton on May 1 and 13966 yuan / ton on May 9. The price of caprolactam rose 3.58% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the rise of raw materials and good cost support, the price of caprolactam continued to rise after the festival. The cost of caprolactam is under great pressure, and most enterprises have raised the price one after another. The downstream procurement demand is acceptable and the on-site supply is sufficient. The overall market fluctuated upward and the transaction was good. As of May 9, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 14800 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14800 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14800 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance.

After the festival, the price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise, and the average price increased by 160 yuan / ton compared with last week. Due to the expected production reduction of main refineries and the continuous decline of port inventory, the industry expects that the domestic pure benzene supply is tight in May. In addition, the local refining enterprises of festival enterprises have good shipments, the market continues to rise after the festival, and the price continues to rise. Crude oil rose by a wide margin this week, the price of pure benzene in the external market was relatively high, the cost support was stronger, and the discussions on the pure benzene market were active during the week. After the festival, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene twice, from 250 yuan / ton to 8950 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of caprolactam of business society believe that due to the continuous rise of raw material prices recently, the cost side of caprolactam is well supported, and caprolactam is mainly upward. Downstream procurement shall be conducted with caution and purchased on demand. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will fluctuate and rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline was temporarily stable this week. On April 29, the price of aniline was 10400-10800 yuan / ton in Shandong and 10600-10800 yuan / ton in Nanjing; On May 6, the price in Shandong was 10400-10800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10600-10800 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week and 5.33% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: due to the expectation of production reduction in the main refineries and the continuous decline of port inventory, the industry expects that the domestic pure benzene supply is tight in May, coupled with the good shipment of local refining enterprises, the market continues to rise after the festival, and the price continues to rise. Crude oil rose by a wide margin this week, the price of pure benzene in the external market was relatively high, the cost support was stronger, and the discussions on the pure benzene market were active during the week. On Friday (May 6), the price of pure benzene was 8650-8900 yuan / ton (the average price was 8750 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 160 yuan / ton, or 1.86%, and 18.08% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid prices rose slightly this week. On April 29, the price was 2450 yuan / ton, and on May 6, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2466.67 yuan / ton, up 0.68% from last week and 8.82% from the same period last year.

Restart of Dongying Huatai aniline plant; The short-term shutdown of Jinmao and Jinling units and the shutdown and maintenance of Jilin Cornell units have reduced the supply of aniline, but the overall supply of the market is still loose. The cost side support is stronger, the downstream demand has not been significantly improved, and the price is temporarily stable during the week. The industry is cautious.

3、 Future expectations

On the cost side, in terms of pure benzene, the short-term supply of pure benzene market is tight, which is still expected, supported by the high level of crude oil and external disk, and it is expected that pure benzene may still rise.

In terms of nitric acid, the goods of nitric acid are acceptable, and the current nitric acid production is small. Supported by the cost of liquid ammonia, the price of nitric acid is expected to continue to rise.

Although the cost side is well supported at present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the aniline Market is prominent. The market is concerned that if the public health events in the later stage improve or drive the release of aniline demand, the price may rebound. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of the dynamics of aniline plant on the price of aniline.

1、 Price trend

In April, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber fluctuated in a narrow range and closed up slightly. According to the price test of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber in the spot market on April 30 was 8025 yuan / ton, up 1.30% from 7922 at the beginning of the month and 16.42% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main short fiber contract closed at 8026 at the end of the month, up 3.99% from the beginning of the month.

The price rise of polyester staple fiber in April was mainly driven by cost: the price of international crude oil continued to fluctuate at a high level this month due to the expected tightening of supply caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. WTI crude oil rose by more than 5% in April (as of April 28). The oil price fluctuated above US $100 on most trading days in April. The rise of oil price led to the rise of PTA price of staple fiber upstream raw material, with PTA period and spot month rising by 4.87% and 6.09% respectively. However, the trend of ethylene glycol was poor this month. Ethylene glycol futures fell 3.10% and spot fell 5.93% month on month.

2、 Influencing factors

In April, the domestic PTA market fluctuated upward. In April, the restart and overhaul of domestic PTA units coexisted, and the operating load of corresponding PTA enterprises remained at a low level. The operating rate of PTA industry decreased from 74% at the beginning of the month to 67% and rebounded slightly to 73% at the end of the month. Overall, supply is still shrinking. In April, the downstream polyester market was still weak, and many factories reduced production to near 77%. Product inventory accumulation and loss increase, factory shipment pressure is large, and inventory is at a high level in recent years. At the end of the month, with the gradual easing of the problem of poor logistics and the gradual resumption of work and production, the comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang picked up slightly and the demand side improved.

In April, the price focus of ethylene glycol declined and the trading was deadlocked. The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port is relatively concentrated this month, and the inventory at the main port has accumulated significantly. The ethylene glycol operating rate declined this month, and the unit load reduction and shutdown increased. Due to the low operating rate and limited logistics, the polyester manufacturers’ enthusiasm for picking up goods was affected, the remaining MEG tank space in the port continued to be tightened, and the overall supply side was still slightly abundant. At present, the demand support of downstream polyester for MEG is still weak. The average polymerization rate of polyester in April is expected to be around 87%, but there is a strong expectation.

In April, the pure polyester yarn market adjusted slightly, the overall sales were weak, the goods were delivered through negotiation, the inventory was high, and some factories were willing to reduce production in the later stage; Polyester cotton yarn market downturn, prices fell in a narrow range, the overall transaction was light. As of April 29, the average market price of pure polyester yarn was 14425 yuan / ton, down 0.35% from the beginning of the month and up 2.30% year-on-year. The average market price of polyester cotton yarn was 21140 yuan / ton, down 0.19% from the beginning of the month.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that in the short term, Russian oil exports may fall sharply under the expectation of the EU’s plan to implement a severe import ban, international oil prices may still be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and short fiber cost support remains. In terms of supply, due to the repeated domestic epidemic and poor logistics, the load at the supply end of staple fiber is reduced more than that at the demand end. In terms of demand, with the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, the weaving enterprises of downstream yarn mills have improved the terminal orders, the inventory has gradually gone to the warehouse, and the demand may gradually pick up. On the whole, under the cost side support and the expectation of demand recovery, it is expected that the short fiber market will still fluctuate upward in May. Pay close attention to the adjustment of US tariff policy, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the epidemic situation and the changes in raw material prices.

The domestic cyclohexanone market was weak in April. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11400 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 11200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.75% in the month and a year-on-year increase of 7.49%.

In April, the cyclohexanone market was weak and volatile, pure benzene was consolidated at a high level, the cost pressure was not reduced, the downstream demand was depressed, coupled with the impact of transportation, the downstream followed up on demand, and the market was in a stalemate.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose by a narrow margin. The raw material pure benzene was consolidated at a high level, and the cost support was relatively stable. The demand for downstream chemical fiber is still weak. Some cyclohexanone enterprises are not exported, and the supply of goods in the market is slightly reduced. Driven by the atmosphere of crude oil, cyclohexanone has risen in a narrow range. However, due to the restriction of the demand side, high price shipments are blocked, and the transaction price has fallen in a narrow range.

In early June, the domestic cyclohexanone market was weak and downward. The raw material pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, and the cost support was stable. However, the downstream chemical fiber demand is weak and difficult to change. Sinopec caprolactam is listed and lowered by 400 yuan / ton. In addition, the transportation is limited, the shipment of cyclohexanone is blocked, and the transaction price falls sharply under the pressure of high price shipment.

In mid June, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to be weak. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost pressure does not decrease. The downstream chemical fiber market was stable and upward. Sinopec caprolactam was listed and increased by 200 yuan / ton, but the purchase enthusiasm was general. In addition, the transportation was limited, the delivery of cyclohexanone was blocked, some enterprises stopped to reduce production, the overall supply and demand of cyclohexanone was weak, and the market was in a stalemate and consolidation.

In late June, the domestic cyclohexanone market was mainly sorted out. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost pressure does not decrease. The downstream chemical fiber market has reduced production and operation, the weak demand for outsourcing, coupled with the impact of logistics and transportation, the delivery speed of cyclohexanone has slowed down, but the commencement of cyclohexanone commodity volume is low, the market is in a weak balance, the rise and fall of cyclohexanone are in a dilemma, the market runs sideways and the trading is light.

Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of cyclohexanone in business society:

Weekly K column chart of domestic production price of cyclohexanone in business society:

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of April 30:

region ., Price

East China, 11300-11400 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China, 11400-11600 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong Province, 11100-11200 yuan / ton cash delivery

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: styrene, caprolactam and other long-term losses, and the price of pure benzene continues to rise with insufficient power. However, in May, new units such as Tianjin Dagu and Maoming Petrochemical styrene entered the site, and the demand in May is expected to be stronger than that in April under the background of the gradual decline of the impact of health events and the recovery of overall downstream consumption.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business agency:

Downstream, the caprolactam market rose first and then fell in April. Since the beginning of April, many caprolactam units have been shut down for maintenance, the supply has decreased, and the caprolactam loss has led to the gradual increase of the enterprise’s selling price. However, in the later stage, due to the poor demand side follow-up, the sales of polymerized products were blocked and the follow-up of raw materials was weak. In the latter half of the year, some enterprises reduced prices to relieve inventory pressure. Driven by the continuous increase of costs at the end of the month, the low prices gradually decreased.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business society:

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of bulk commodity prices in April 2022, there were 41 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, of which 9 kinds increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were formic acid (36.15%), caustic soda (13.35%) and flake soda (9.32%). A total of 66 commodities fell month on month, and 29 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 26.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were propylene glycol (- 20.05%), acetic acid (- 18.39%) and glycine (- 16.77%). The average rise and fall this month was – 1.87%.

Pure benzene is high, the cost is strong, the downstream demand is general, and the supply of cyclohexanone is stable. Cyclohexanone analysts of business society expect that cyclohexanone is strong in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: the price of maleic anhydride fluctuated downward in April

According to the data of business agency, as of April 29, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 11500.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 7.51% from 12433.33 yuan / ton on April 1.

On April 29, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 108.33, the same as yesterday, 34.91% lower than the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and 111.66% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In April, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to decline. Recently, the downstream unsaturated resin market is mainly consolidated, and the construction is slow. As of the 29th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 10500 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 10500 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 10500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 10500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 11000 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil shock in April was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories. The market is still dominated by concerns about tight global oil supply in the future. The market is intertwined with long and short, the global economic recovery slows down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the domestic epidemic suppresses demand, and oil prices are under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations, limiting the decline in oil prices, and the recent crude oil price range has fluctuated.

In April 2022, the market trend of hydrogenated benzene in this month fluctuated, the price rose at the beginning of the month, fell in the middle of the month, and rose again at the end of the month. At present, pure benzene is obviously affected by the fluctuation of crude oil trend, some downstream purchase intentions have rebounded to a certain extent, and the demand support is obvious. Superimposed on the pre holiday replenishment demand, the price of pure benzene has risen recently.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is mainly sorted out, and the downstream resin manufacturers are mainly in need of purchase. Affected by the domestic epidemic, transportation is limited, and the atmosphere of goods preparation in the downstream before the festival is light. In May, the maleic anhydride shutdown units were restored one after another, and the supply increased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly sorted out in the near future.