1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market has fallen recently, and the spot price has generally decreased. As of October 14, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 4000.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.23% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 52.38%.

After the festival, the potash fertilizer market continued the weak operation in the early stage, and the market stabilized at the end of last month fell online. At present, the market momentum is insufficient and the trading volume is low. I heard that the improvement of shipment of potassium sulfate enterprises is limited and the profitability is poor. The mentality of the industry is unstable, and the spot of potassium sulfate is under pressure. In terms of upstream potassium chloride, there has been a large decline recently, which is bad for the spot price of potassium sulfate. The industry load is low, and the operating rate of processing potassium sulfate enterprises is stable between 50% and 60%. At present, the ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported as 4100 yuan / ton. Shijiazhuang Haofang 50% potassium sulfate powder factory reference price is quoted as 4000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium fertilizer market has weakened again recently, and the long-standing raw material potassium chloride market has fallen. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate collapsed. Although the enterprise buffered the supply pressure with low load, the demand of downstream users followed slowly and the market mentality was mainly wait-and-see. At present, the market supply and demand are weak, the cost side support is weakened, and the domestic market is bad. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to be weak in the near future.

DOTP prices fell on October 13

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DOTP price fell on October 13. After the continuous sharp rise of DOTP after the festival, the DOTP price fell slightly on October 13. As of October 13, the DOTP price was 14937.50 yuan / ton, down 0.91% from the DOTP price of 15075.00 yuan / ton on October 12 of the previous trading day; Compared with the DOTP price of 12766.67 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of October, an increase of 17.00%. The rise of DOTP slowed down and the future DOTP market stabilized.

Raw material prices stabilize

According to the price monitoring of business society, the rise of raw material isooctanol slowed down on October 13, and the price of isooctanol stabilized. On October 13, PTA price fell, DOTP cost stabilized, DOTP rising pressure weakened, and DOTP market stabilized.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DOTP data analyst at the business agency, believes that after the October Festival, the prices of isooctanol and PTA, the raw materials of DOTP, soared, and the cost of DOTP soared, stimulating the price rise of DOTP; The continuous sharp rise led to a decline in the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers, and insufficient demand led to insufficient support for the rise of DOTP industrial chain. On October 13, the price of raw materials stabilized and declined slightly, the rise of DOTP lost support, and the price of DOTP fell on October 13. Overall, the price of raw materials stabilized, the rise of DOTP was not supported, the power restriction remained, and the tight supply of DOTP remained. It is expected that the future DOTP price shock will stabilize.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 12, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 63133 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (organosilicon DMC reference average price of 63300 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 167 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.26%. Compared with September 1 (organosilicon DMC reference average price of 37500 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 25633 yuan / ton, an increase of 68.36%.

In September, the domestic silicone DMC market rose 66%. The market price of organosilicon DMC has entered the era of 60000. During the National Day in October, the overall high, stable and strong operation of domestic organosilicon DMC. During the festival of Shandong chemical plant, the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC rose to 64200 yuan / ton, and the average market price of organosilicon DMC rose again to 63866 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival.

After the festival, the overall high level of silicone DMC market fell slightly. On the 11th, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of a large chemical plant in Shandong was reported as 63200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 1000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. The price adjustment of the quotation of the plant brought some wait-and-see mood in the field, and the downstream procurement was cautious after the festival, However, the high-level operation of metal silicon on the cost side still gives sufficient support to the silicone DMC, and the current quotation of the factory is still strong. At present, as of October 12, the difference between high and low prices in the field has narrowed, and the factories have successively started to receive new orders. The ex factory price of domestic silicone DMC is referred to as 63000-63200 yuan / ton, and the average price is referred to as 63133 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average price is reduced by 733 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.26%.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of silicone DMC in some parts of China (for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

region September 30th October 12th Rise and fall

Shandong region sixty-four thousand and two hundred sixty-three thousand and two hundred – one thousand

East China No quotation for the time being sixty-three thousand –

North China No quotation for the time being sixty-three thousand –

In terms of upstream metal silicon, after entering October, the domestic metal silicon market #441 silicon market fell slightly and then maintained a high level. On October 11, 2021, the price range of metal silicon market #441 silicon in Shanghai was 62000-62500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 62250 yuan / ton, and the price range of #441 silicon market in Fujian was 52000-54000 yuan / ton, with an average market price of 53000 yuan / ton, The metal silicon market #441 price range in Sichuan is 60500-61000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 60750 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the reference price of metal silicon was 59875 yuan / ton on October 11, a decrease of 1.58% compared with October 1 (60833.33 yuan / ton).

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, the downstream performance of silicone DMC is calmer than before the festival, and the goods are relatively cautious. However, the raw material side continues to support the silicone DMC market. Therefore, the silicone DMC datagrapher of business society believes that the probability of sharp decline in the silicone DMC market in the short term is small, and most of them will continue to operate at a high level. More attention needs to be paid to the trend changes of the supply side.

During the National Day holiday, the international crude oil price rose, and the overall strong operation of the chemical sector led to a sharp rise in PTA. According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of October 11, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 5543 yuan / ton, up 9.35% from October 7 and 66.73% year-on-year. The main futures 2201 closed at 5592, up 218, or 4.06%.

Statistics of recent changes in PTA plants in China

manufacturing enterprise Unit capacity (10000 t / a) Device change

Yisheng new materials three hundred and thirty About 90% of the construction started

Jiaxing petrochemical one hundred and fifty Shutdown on October 9, restart time to be determined

Yangzi Petrochemical sixty-five It was overhauled in the evening of September 22, and excellent products were delivered on October 11

Chuanneng chemistry one hundred Stop on August 30, and it is planned to deliver premium products on October 13

Yisheng Dalian two hundred and twenty-five Short stop on October 8 for 4-5 days

three hundred and seventy-five Short stop on October 8 for 4-5 days

Hengli Dalian two hundred and twenty It is planned to conduct maintenance for 2 weeks in mid October, which may be conducted in advance

two hundred and fifty Maintenance for 2 weeks on October 8, 2021

In terms of units, Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton unit shut down on October 9; Yisheng Dalian 6 million ton plant was shut down for 4-5 days on October 8; Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton unit was overhauled for two weeks on October 8, the industrial commencement dropped to near 60%, and there was output compression at the supply end. Next, restart and overhaul coexisted, and the discharge of 650000 ton PTA unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was restarted on October 11; Two sets of yishanhua with a total of 6 million tons are planned to restart around October 12; Chuanneng chemical is expected to produce 1 million tons of high-quality products on October 13.

Crude oil rose sharply, supported by favorable cost side. On October 8, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $79.35/barrel, an increase of US $1.05 or 1.3%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $82.39/barrel, an increase of US $0.44 or 0.5%. As winter approaches, fuel demand increases, superimposed supply tightening is difficult to ease, and oil prices are still strong and volatile.

Affected by the dual control of energy consumption in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the operating load of polyester weaving in the downstream further fell to less than 80%, and the supply of goods was tight, mainly consumption inventory. The prices of staple fiber, filament and other products rose sharply, ranging from 7-10% higher than before the national day, and the cash flow recovered to a certain extent.

Business analysts believe that the current high prices of natural gas and coal and strong market expectations for heating demand in winter have boosted the rise of crude oil prices and supported the strong operation of PTA prices. However, we should be vigilant against uncertain factors such as production reduction of polyester and weaving, as well as the restart of our own devices, which may restrict the price of PTA.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (October 9): 9000.00 yuan / ton

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business society, the acetic acid market was sorted out at a high level. On October 9, the price of acetic acid decreased slightly by 0.11% compared with the previous working day, and the price is still high. The start-up of domestic acetic acid plants is low, and the supply of goods in the market has not been significantly improved after the festival. Many factories in the field shut down for maintenance or limited production of acetic acid plants, the enterprise inventory is tight, the manufacturer’s quotation is high, the supply of goods in the market continues to be tight, the traders have a rising attitude, and the acetic acid market is high.

The supply of acetic acid in the domestic market is tight, the price is high and firm, and the downstream purchase is rational. It is difficult to make up for the supply gap in the field in a short time. It is expected that the high-level consolidation and operation of the future market will be the main focus, and the specific attention will be paid to the downstream transaction.

Fluctuation trend:

Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, due to the current tight energy supply, the market sentiment is still bullish on oil prices. The market believes that it is unlikely for the United States to release emergency crude oil reserves or prohibit exports, and the oil price is supported

The price of mixed xylene generally rose in all regions of Sinopec. During the festival, crude oil prices rose broadly, driving the prices of related aromatic products to rise, and mixed xylene rose boosted by the cost side; The continuous rise of crude oil led to strong gasoline follow-up sentiment, which also gave positive support to the mixed xylene market.

Trend of metallic magnesium (9.1-9.30, the same below)

In September, the price of magnesium rose to 70000 +. According to the price data of business agency, as of September 30, the market tax included spot exchange was 51666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 171.93% over the beginning of the week.

At the beginning of the month, the market was relatively calm, with frequent policy news on production restriction and reduction, and merchants in the magnesium industry chain operated cautiously; In the middle of the month, as soon as the “double control” document was issued in Yulin, there was an uproar in the magnesium market, and the price of magnesium also rose to 40 million yuan; Then, during the Mid Autumn Festival, the documents were landed and the policies were overweight. The price of magnesium rose by 10000 yuan every day, and the enterprises involved were shut down successively. After experiencing the soaring market, the magnesium price also showed a downward trend. One week at the end of the month, the magnesium price stopped rising and fell back, returned to the rational channel, and sought the market balance point. The rise of magnesium price is jointly affected by many factors: energy consumption “double control” policy, environmental protection transformation, power restriction and so on.

On September 29, the magnesium commodity index was 315.04, up 7.72 points from yesterday, down 3.12% from the highest point of 325.20 points in the cycle (2021-09-27), and up 333.46% from the lowest point of 72.68 points on January 10, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2012 to now)

The pressure of environmental protection affects the decline of magnesium production capacity

Since August, Shaanxi Province has put forward new environmental protection requirements. As a high energy consuming industry, the task of upgrading and transformation is particularly severe. Meanwhile, the blue carbon industry is also stepping up its optimization. According to the requirements of the Industrial Guidance Catalogue of the national development and Reform Commission, the blue carbon production plant with a single furnace capacity of less than 75000 tons is upgraded. While the magnesium plant pays a lot of environmental protection upgrading and transformation costs, the production cost also increases, which is also the reason for the rise of magnesium price.

Limited production and electricity under the dual control of magnesium City

On September 13, Yulin development and Reform Commission issued a notice to ensure the completion of the dual control target task of energy consumption in 2021. Most magnesium enterprises in the main production area have 50% limited output, involving more than 40 magnesium plants. On September 20, the first batch of energy consumption double control key regulation enterprises in Fugu County stopped production and power supply measures, including blue carbon and magnesium ingot enterprises. In the face of sudden changes in the market, most magnesium plants shut down on a large scale, the time of resumption of production is not clear, and most magnesium enterprises do not report the closure.

At present, the spot supply of magnesium ingots in the market has been sharply compressed, and the reluctance of magnesium factories to sell is obvious. On the demand side, downstream customers do not accept high priced magnesium, are cautious in placing orders, and procurement is generally delayed. It is understood that many magnesium plants and downstream businesses are deeply worried about this. With the rise of prices, the increase of raw material costs leads to a loss. Plus the weakness of both supply and demand, the high level of magnesium price callback in the last few days of the month.

High costs push up magnesium prices

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the coal price continued to rise. As of September 26, the monthly increase of power coal, coking coal and coke reached 37.05%, 31.70% and 21.70% respectively. The port inventory remains low, adding that most domestic coal mines are in the shutdown stage, and there is little coal in the market as a whole. Magnesium plants have difficulty in purchasing coal, and there is no market for price, resulting in rising costs. The price rise of ferrosilicon steel is finalized, indicating that the future price will still be high.

Future forecast

After the specific production and power restriction documents came out, the magnesium plant had an obvious mentality of reluctant to sell, and the merchants had a strong willingness to support the price. In addition, the magnesium plant was also faced with dual cost pressure. On the one hand, the soaring of raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon, on the other hand, it was faced with environmental pressure, resulting in the high price of magnesium. However, considering the high price of magnesium ingots, in addition to individual rigid needs, some purchasing end users chose to delist and wait and see the market, and the market transaction slowed down. Generally speaking, the current magnesium price has a high downward trend. Business analysts believe that the magnesium price is in a high shock callback state in the short term, and more attention is paid to the market transaction and policy news in the future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic vitamin C price fell steadily in September. The average price of vitamin C at the beginning of the month was 48.67 yuan / kg, and the average price at the end of the month was 48.33 yuan / kg, a monthly decrease of 0.7%.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the vitamin C market operated smoothly as a whole in early September, mainly through market transaction price negotiation. The downstream demand is general, and the maintenance enterprises resume production one after another. Vitamin C market was weak as a whole, and the price fell slightly. Under the continuous light demand, the market demand in September was still insufficient.

In September, the price of vitamin A went down step by step, with an average price of 296 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month and 290 yuan / kg at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.25%. On August 23, XinHeCheng VA raised its price to 360 yuan / kg, and then the market price of vitamin AJ rose first and then fell, and the price fell back to the level before the price rise. According to market news, on September 14, affected by the supply of raw material sodium methoxide, DSM VA plant stopped production until the end of September, reducing production by 30% in the fourth quarter, boosting the domestic market, and vitamin A prices remained high in September.

The price of vitamin E rose slightly in September, with an average price of 75.67 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month and 76.67 yuan / kg at the end of the month, an increase of 1.32%. According to market news, foreign vitamin E enterprises have maintenance or shutdown plans to boost the domestic market. At the same time, domestic manufacturers are more willing to stop reporting prices, and vitamin E prices are strong, pushing up slightly.

Future forecast

Vitamin analysts of the chemical branch of the business community believe that: Overall, the overall performance of the vitamin market is general, and it is expected that the short-term aftermarket will be dominated by weak shocks.

In September, the raw material side was strongly supported, and the nylon price was running at a high level. As of September 30, the quotation of nylon filament DTY (excellent product; 70D / 24F) in Jiangsu was 20820 yuan / ton, an increase of 820 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of the month, an increase of 4.1%; The quotation of nylon POY (superior product; 86d / 24F) is 18325 yuan / ton, which is 700 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month, up 3.97%; The price of nylon FDY (superior product: 40d / 12F) was reported as 22166 yuan / ton, up 1566 yuan / ton or 7.6% compared with that at the beginning of the month.

Nylon price chart

From the perspective of price trend, since September, the domestic nylon fabric market has been operating at a high level, and the overall operation is relatively stable and rising steadily. The demand of domestic nylon spinning enterprises recovered slightly, and the goods were prepared in advance. The transaction turned better, which was conducive to reducing the inventory of nylon chips. With the report on September 14, the quotation of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam increased by 500 to 16000 yuan / ton this week. On September 15, nylon manufacturers raised their prices one after another. The quotation generally increased by 800-1000 yuan / ton, especially nylon FDY. Some manufacturers increased by 1500 yuan / ton. In late September, the overall operation was relatively stable and increased steadily.

Under the influence of the dual control policy, the nylon industry has not been spared, and the startup rate of nylon related enterprises will be limited to a certain extent. Nylon manufacturers in Jiangsu stopped production for about 10 days, and the inventory was further reduced.

Strong support of upstream raw materials

The rise of domestic nylon price in September was mainly affected by upstream raw materials. PA6 is the main raw material of nylon civil silk. In September, PA6 was strongly pulled up by the price of upstream raw material caprolactam. As of September 29, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 17333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.59% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, a year-on-year increase of 66.13%.

From the rise and fall of nylon and upstream raw material prices in recent months, caprolactam has started a strong upward trend since mid August. The spot market price has increased from 14200 yuan / ton to 15250 yuan / ton, an increase of about 7.4% in just three weeks. In September, caprolactam strongly supported the cost side of PA6, and the spot price of PA6 continued to rise with the increase of raw materials. At present, it is in the traditional peak season of “golden nine”, the terminal demand is large, and there is a centralized replenishment market within the month. The market fundamentals are stable, and it is expected that the spot price of PA6 may maintain a stable operation in the short term.

The supply of cyclohexanone, the upstream raw material of nylon, is tight, and the market price continues to rise. The domestic cyclohexanone market price rose sharply in September. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 10720 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 12760 yuan / ton, an increase of 19.03% in the month and 90.86% year-on-year.

At the beginning of June, the cyclohexanone market was strong and upward, pure benzene rose steadily, the cost support was relatively stable, the maintenance of downstream caprolactam units was concentrated, the spot supply in the market was tight, and some chemical fiber plants actively purchased. In the middle of the month, the cyclohexanone market rose broadly, and pure benzene was listed twice, with a total increase of 200 yuan / ton to 7850 yuan / ton, which was strongly supported by the cost side. The downstream caprolactam has more shutdown and maintenance, the supply is tight, and the demand for cyclohexanone is increasing. In late June, the cyclohexanone market operated strongly, and pure benzene was listed twice, with a total reduction of 400 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton, lacking support in cost. However, the downstream caprolactam supply is tight. During the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, some chemical fiber plants actively prepare goods and purchase, forming a good demand support for the cyclohexanone market. In addition, there are many parking lots of cyclohexanone, the commodity volume continues to be in short supply, and cyclohexanone runs at a high price.

Downstream market demand

On the demand side, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, the demand in the downstream market is a little large. According to the Convention, the market trading atmosphere will pick up before the national day. After the national day, with the further release of downstream orders, there are too many uncertainties in the market this year. Market participants need to be cautious whether this wave of market is hoarding goods to rise or the real peak season is coming.

Future forecast

At present, the nylon filament market is affected by the raw material market, and the nylon price is running at a high level. Under the influence of the power restriction policy, the nylon industry has not been spared, and the startup rate of nylon related enterprises will be limited to a certain extent. Business analysts expect that in the short term, the nylon market will be stimulated by the traditional peak season signal and the cost side will continue to be promoted. Under the influence of power restriction policy, the domestic nylon price will continue to operate at a high level, and there are still rising expectations.