According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market fluctuated and rose this week, with an average price of 7610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7630 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.26% within the week.

News: On August 7th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.88 per barrel, a decrease of $0.47 or 0.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October was $66.43 per barrel, a decrease of $0.46 or 0.7%.
Cost wise: Pure benzene fell first and then rebounded this week. The overall supply has slightly contracted, with both petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene decreasing, and there has been no synchronous improvement in demand. The average price at the beginning of the week was 6002 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6122 yuan/ton, with a 2.02% increase during the week. The pure benzene market maintains a loose supply situation, with weak fundamentals, which affects the trend of pure benzene.
Supply and demand side: This week, a unit in Northeast China restarted, a new unit in Shandong produced a small amount, and some units in East and South China adjusted their loads. The factory capacity utilization rate dropped to 77.73%, a decrease of 1.19% compared to the previous month. In terms of demand, the operating rates of downstream three S have fluctuated, with high EPS inventory and a significant decrease in operating rates during the off-season of demand. The ABS and PS industries have seen a slight increase in production, with an overall trend of decreasing demand.
Styrene external market: On August 7th, the closing price of styrene market in Asia remained stable, with closing prices of 885-890 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 895-900 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The current fundamentals of the styrene market are weak and difficult to change. There will be maintenance equipment restarting and new equipment testing in the later stage. Downstream EPS/PS will reduce the burden of some factories due to industry profit compression. Without significant changes on a macro level, it is expected that the styrene market will operate under pressure in the short term.

The rise in crude oil prices in July is favorable for the asphalt market, with the Shandong asphalt market rising. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3670 yuan/ton on July 1st, and as of July 31st, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3727 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.54%.

From a cost perspective, the increase in prices of raw materials such as crude oil has led to an increase in production costs, which has a certain supporting effect on it. In terms of inventory, due to the impact of the typhoon, some refineries have limited ship shipments and accumulated inventory in their warehouses.
In terms of supply, the operating rate of 92 domestic asphalt refineries is at 35%, an increase from the previous month, with a monthly output of 2.4 million tons. In July, the operating rate of asphalt factories was at the median level in the past five years, indicating a relatively sufficient supply.
On the demand side, weather conditions such as high temperatures and rainfall have affected road construction in some areas, resulting in slow progress of terminal projects. Overall demand for asphalt is relatively low, and downstream users and traders are cautious.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, in terms of the fundamentals of asphalt, the overall weak supply-demand situation may continue, with funding conflicts and weather conditions such as rainfall affecting the release of terminal demand. The supply side may remain stable, and the operating rate is at the median level in recent years. However, inventory is relatively low and there has been no accumulation signal. The short-term pressure on the market is not significant, but asphalt continues to have insufficient upward momentum.

Zinc price in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31st, the zinc price was 22296 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% compared to the zinc price of 22258 yuan/ton on July 1st. In July, the market was immersed in a positive atmosphere of “anti internal competition”, and the Shanghai zinc price broke the previous low consolidation deadlock, successfully filling the gap and repairing the gap.
In terms of raw materials
The overall processing fee for zinc concentrate remains stable, and market transactions are mainly based on the execution of contracts signed in the early stage. The transaction volume in the imported zinc concentrate market is slightly sluggish, and the price comparison between domestic and foreign markets has shown a weakening trend this week. As a result, the processing fees for imported ore have slightly increased.
Supply and demand side
The situation of zinc ingot premium has undergone significant changes, showing a trend from positive to negative, which reflects a certain degree of adjustment in the market supply and demand relationship. From a market perspective, this indicates that the supply of zinc ingots in the spot market is relatively abundant, and the bargaining power of buyers in transactions has been improved. It is worth noting that there is a certain contrast between the downward trend of the premium and the upward trend of prices. This may be because some traders have appropriately lowered their premium quotes in order to accelerate shipment speed and promote the growth of actual trading volume.
The demand for die-casting zinc alloys in downstream industries such as automobiles and home appliances has shown mediocre performance. Although new car models continue to be launched in the automotive industry, the overall market consumption lacks strong momentum, and the sales growth trend is slow, which has prevented a significant increase in demand for die-casting zinc alloy parts. On the one hand, the home appliance industry is affected by the saturation of the market, and on the other hand, it is in the off-season of consumption. Therefore, production enterprises adopt a cautious attitude towards raw material procurement, mostly purchasing according to actual demand to maintain a low inventory level.
Future forecast
August is a period of transition between peak and off peak seasons in the industry. As for the third quarter, the overall policy situation shows a cautious and optimistic trend. However, from a fundamental perspective, the expectation of increased supply and weak demand has not changed. Overall, the possibility of zinc prices maintaining a volatile trend is greater than a decline.