In June, the focus of the domestic acetone market mainly fell. The acetone market in East China has been trading at an average price of 5450 yuan/ton since June 1st, but has dropped to 5180 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 4.95%. From the perspective of the national acetone market, there is an equally significant downward space.

In the first ten days of the year, the supply was sufficient, the price was reported low under the pressure of traders, and the social resources were sufficient after the Dragon Boat Festival. The port inventory rose to 28000 tons, and the supply of goods was abundant. The market center of gravity declined, falling to a market low of 5250 yuan/ton. After a period of terminal replenishment, the market once again entered a state of sluggish trading.
The geopolitical situation has changed, with a sharp drop in crude oil and negative costs in the latter half of the month. Crude oil has driven the decline of pure benzene, and styrene has experienced a deep decline in a single day. Pure benzene has fallen, dealing another blow to the already lukewarm acetone market. As the end of the month approaches, the market has fallen below 5200 yuan/ton, and trading is deadlocked.
As the end of the month approaches, there will be little positive news in the later stage, and the overall market is in a downward trend. At the end of the month, the market fell to the lowest point of the month, and negotiations in the East China region are at 5150-5180 yuan/ton.

In terms of equipment in June: Early shutdown equipment such as CNOOC Shell, Yanshan Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Huizhou Center Phase I, and Gaoqiao Petrochemical are still in operation. The 350000 ton/year unit of Tianjin Petrochemical was shut down for 40 days and resumed operation on June 2nd. The 320000 ton/year phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou was shut down for maintenance on June 13th, lasting about 30 days.
It is expected to remain weak and difficult to change in July. From the supply side, the Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Phenol Ketone Plant plans to produce products in mid July, resulting in an increase in domestic acetone supply. From the perspective of imports, Saudi Arabia’s facilities have been shut down for maintenance, Middle Eastern sources are limited, and Thailand’s import resources are normal. Currently, it appears that the import volume has slightly decreased. From the perspective of demand, downstream bisphenol A and isopropanol units have been improved, but overall procurement is still mainly based on demand. From a cost perspective, the external environment remains weak, and pure benzene is expected to continue to decline, making it difficult to support acetone. It is expected that the acetone market will continue to operate weakly in July.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this month, with an average market price of 1275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1273 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has dropped by 0.16%, a year-on-year decrease of 45.22%. On June 26th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 84.42, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 0.06% from the lowest point of 84.37 points on June 19, 2025. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1270 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1300-1400 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in June. The average market price of light soda ash from the beginning of the month to the end of the month was around 1284 yuan/ton, which was 35.56% higher than the same period last year. Downstream purchases should be made as needed.
Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with the overall weak performance of upstream raw material soda ash in June. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will rise in June 2025, with an average price of 16475 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17020 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 3.31%.

On June 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 103.58, a decrease of 0.23 points from yesterday, a decrease of 22.71% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (November 29, 2016), and an increase of 38.79% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
At the beginning of the month, the overall fluctuation was not significant, but the price center continued to move up at a slow pace, indicating that in the market’s supply-demand tug of war, multiple forces had a slight advantage, which in turn pushed prices to show a moderate upward trend. The fluctuation range of lead prices in the middle of the month is relatively narrow. Although prices have shown a slight downward trend, the price center still moves up at a slow pace, and the lead price trend shows a strong bias. At the end of the month, some refineries began to undergo maintenance for primary lead, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in lead prices.
supply end
The supply situation of domestic lead concentrate remains stable, the production process of mining enterprises is progressing in an orderly manner, and the supply of raw materials is abundant. However, some lead smelting enterprises are affected by factors such as equipment maintenance and environmental inspections, which have limited the release of production capacity to a certain extent. This has slowed down the growth rate of lead ingot spot output, and the spot supply in the market tends to be tight, providing strong support for the rise of lead prices.
demand side
According to the operating rate data of lead-acid batteries, there is still a slight upward trend, but the overall market terminal consumption situation has not shown substantial improvement, and some enterprises are looking forward to the market recovery in July.
Prediction of future trends
As the traditional peak sales season for electric bicycles approaches, the fundamentals of the lead market have shown some signs of improvement recently. However, the overall market is still in a weak supply-demand situation, so it is recommended to approach the increase in lead prices with caution.