1、 Price trend
According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda first rose and then fell in March. At the beginning of the month, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 936 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 907 yuan/yuan, a decrease of 3.1% and an increase of 6.46% compared to the same period last year. On March 30th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 827 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.93% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 38.29% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis
According to survey data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda first fell and then rose. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 980-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is running weakly, with a mainstream market price of around 870-940 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The overall upward trend in caustic soda prices in early March was mainly due to manufacturers stopping for maintenance, which eased the pressure on caustic soda inventory. Downstream alumina prices remained at 3200-3450 yuan/ton, indicating a decent demand for caustic soda. In late March, the overall price of caustic soda fell, and the main caustic soda inventory accumulated. With the main regional liquid caustic soda procurement prices further lowered. The main regional liquid alkali market has experienced a decline, and non aluminum demand is high, so it is necessary to wait and see. The market demand is average.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak in the operating market, with accumulated inventory in some areas and average downstream demand. While supply continues to increase, demand has not shown significant improvement. Overall, it is expected that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating market in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

In March, the epoxy propane market showed a situation of mixed ups and downs. At the beginning of March, the epoxy propane market showed a stable and declining trend. Due to the restart of some factory facilities and sufficient market supply, coupled with rising raw material prices and insufficient downstream demand, corporate profits have narrowed, leading to a decline in prices. Since mid March, due to the reduction in supply of raw material liquid chlorine in the market, prices have risen significantly, which has provided some support for the price of epoxy propane and led to an upward trend. At the end of March, the epoxy propane market experienced a slight decline in price due to weak downstream demand and insufficient terminal digestion. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7987.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.47% from the beginning of the month.

Price influencing factors:
Supply side: Currently, market inventory has decreased. Enterprises tend to have a strong mentality of supporting prices.
Raw material side: In March, the raw material propylene and liquid chlorine markets showed mixed fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, there was a small peak in propylene prices, which provided strong support for the epoxy propane market. In mid March, the price of propylene remained within the range of fluctuations, which had limited impact on the trend of the epoxy propane market. However, due to supply reduction, the price of raw material liquid chlorine increased significantly, which provided some support for the price of epoxy propane. Overall, the epoxy propane market showed an upward trend. At the end of the month, there was a significant drop in propylene prices, and the cost support for epoxy propane was insufficient, resulting in a strong market price. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 27th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6798.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (6813.25 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand side: In March, the overall demand for epoxy propane in the downstream market was weak, with insufficient terminal digestion. Traders had a cold purchasing mentality and focused on on-demand procurement, resulting in a decrease in market order volume and poor market transmission. In addition, the operating rate of some downstream products has also shown a downward trend. Overall, the downstream downturn has had a certain impact on the trend of the epoxy propane market.
Market forecast:
An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current supply side shipments of epoxy propane market are normal and there is still some support. However, the downstream trading atmosphere is generally average, with on-demand procurement as the main focus and insufficient demand side support. Many enterprises are mainly pushing prices. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will continue to fluctuate within a certain range in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices.