1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Thursday was 31750 yuan/ton, while the average price this Thursday was 31550 yuan/ton, and the price was reduced by 0.63% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. The manufacturer issued many early orders, and the overall market delivery and investment situation was general. After the Spring Festival, the demand in the downstream market is light, and replenishment is mainly needed, and new orders are limited. Up to now, the mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 31000-32000 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 31000-32200 yuan/ton.

For phosphate rock, the price increased slightly. Up to now, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1060 yuan/ton. The overall trading atmosphere of the phosphorus ore market is relatively quiet, but with the arrival of the spring planting season, the downstream demand will gradually recover. The phosphorus ore statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly stable and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information of the supply and demand.

In terms of coke, up to now, the coke market has been operating stably, and the price of quasi-first grade metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 2482 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the coking enterprises have started work steadily, basically the same as before the Spring Festival, and the coke inventory has declined slightly. After the market atmosphere has improved, traders have increased their purchases in the market, and the coke inventory has shifted to the market, and the coke enterprise inventory has declined accordingly. In terms of demand, the blast furnace operating rate of the steel plant after the holiday is basically the same as that before the holiday, the coke inventory in the plant is declining, and the manufacturer has the demand for replenishment, and the coke is just needed to purchase. In this cycle, coking steel has a strong game mentality. Some steel plants have started the first round of lifting and lowering, and some coking enterprises have started the third round of lifting and lowering. In the future, the coke price is expected to be stable under the game mentality of coke steel. In the future, the focus will be on the impact of coke inventory in all links and sales of downstream steel plants on coke supply and demand.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid decreased slightly this week. The average price of phosphoric acid last Thursday was 8975 yuan/ton, and the average price this Thursday was 8900 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.84% during the week. At present, phosphoric acid fluctuates slightly. It is expected that in the short term, the phosphoric acid market will be more wait-and-see and temporarily stable.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the current yellow phosphorus market is relatively light. The price of upstream phosphate rock was slightly increased, the coke market price was relatively stable, and the cost support was acceptable. The downstream phosphoric acid market price follows the trend of yellow phosphorus. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will operate stably in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of the Business Agency, as of February 8, 2023, the price of domestic n-propanol was referenced at 8000 yuan/ton. Compared with January 29, 2023 (the reference price of n-propanol was 7833 yuan/ton), the price increased by 167 yuan/ton, or 2.13%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that after the return of the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic n-propanol market rose first and then fell, and the overall trend was mainly a small increase. Two days before the return from the holiday, the n-propanol market was stable and operated. Then, the n-propanol market experienced an upward movement, with the lower end prices on the market decreasing, and the overall center of gravity of the market moving upward. From the 5th, the overall market price fell slightly, with a decrease of about 100-200 yuan/ton. As of February 8, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7400-7700 yuan/ton (apron). The market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. There are also differences in each region, and the negotiation is based on the actual order.

Prediction of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol on the market is mild, and the downstream demand needs to be gradually opened. After the holiday, the supply and demand side of the n-propanol market has little change. The n-propanol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mostly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to rise this week. On February 3, the average market price in East China was 20766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.16% compared with the price of 19200.00 yuan/ton on January 27, and a month-on-month increase of 9.68%.

This week, the TDI market was in strong operation. After the holiday, the information from suppliers was released intensively. Fujian’s local 100000 tons of TDI devices were permanently shut down on February 1. Shanghai Costron’s latest one price increase and limited supply. Then a large factory in North China announced the high weekly settlement price, and at the end of the month, the monthly listing price of the large factory announced the increase. According to the information guidance, the TDI offer rose sharply, the downstream demand for goods was weak, and the inquiry atmosphere in the market was general. However, due to the tight supply and strong support of suppliers, the dominant position of the seller’s market was obvious, and the TDI price rose at a high level. As of the 3rd day, the domestic product quotation range of the distribution market in East China was about 20300-21000 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai product quotation range was 20500-21300 yuan/ton, and the real order negotiation was the main.

The upstream toluene market is stronger, and the price trend rose and then fell slightly. As of February 3, the domestic average price of toluene was about 7070 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 7.28% compared with the price of 6590 yuan/ton on January 28. After China optimized the epidemic prevention and control policy, the market was optimistic about China’s energy demand, boosting the rise of oil prices, and the downstream terminals were in the recovery and rising period as a whole, giving some support to the toluene industry. According to the guidance of market news, the focus of the toluene market was upward.

According to the aftermarket analysis, TDI statisticians of the business agency believe that the market news in the market is mostly positive, the fundamentals of the suppliers are strong, the trade market mentality is strong, the TDI offer is high, the market price is difficult to find, the demand side, the downstream follow-up to the high price supply is limited, the TDI rising trend may be limited, and it is expected that the short-term TDI market will run at a high level, and there will be follow-up under specific attention.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5200 yuan/ton on January 28, and the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5400 yuan/ton on February 2. The price of chlorinated paraffin rose 3.85% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin rose this week. This week, the prices of raw liquid chlorine and liquid wax continued to rise, and the cost-side support was good. Downstream purchase on demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is acceptable. At present, the shipments of chlorinated paraffin manufacturers are stable, and the focus of market transactions is stable and upward. As of February 2, the ex-factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui Province was about 5700 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Northeast China was about 5500 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong Province was about 4700-4800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to rise this week, with good intra-field trading. The liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose this week, with good shipments from manufacturers and steady increase in downstream demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of the Business Agency, the price of chlorinated paraffin raw materials is rising and the cost pressure is increasing. After the festival, the downstream demand began to rise steadily, and the on-site trading was good. Under the favorable factors, the market price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to rise steadily in the short term.