In the beginning of September, the market of n-propanol was stable

 

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Since the beginning of September, the overall domestic n-propanol market has been mainly stable, and the n-propanol manufacturers mainly supply contract users, and the downstream demand has remained stable. At present, the ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water is around 10600-11000 yuan / ton, the low-end bulk water price is 10000 yuan / ton, and the packaging price is around 11300-11600 yuan / ton. Nanjing area: the ex factory quotation of n-propanol bulk water of Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10500 yuan / T; that of Nanjing NOAO new material is 10600 yuan / T. At present, the overall news of the market is calm.

 

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of September 7, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11733 yuan / ton, which was basically flat compared with the price on September 1; compared with the price on August 1, the average price was reduced by 170 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.40%.

 

In terms of raw materials, the overall external market of ethylene has risen slightly since September. On the 4th, the price of ethylene market in Europe was US $693-704 / T in FD northwest Europe and US $678-689 / T in CIF northwest Europe, down US $2 / T. the market demand in the near future is general. For the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 770-780 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 725-735 USD / T. In recent years, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly rising, and the demand is fair. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 577.5-589.5 US dollars / ton. The recent US ethylene market is mainly stable and the demand is fair.

 

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Crude oil prices fell below US $39 / barrel in the early trading of last week. Several of the reasons for the decline have to do with demand, or rather a persistent lack of demand. The reason for Saudi Arabia’s cut in oil prices is the lack of purchasing volume, and the “driving” season in the United States is over, and oil consumption is likely to decrease in the next few weeks. In the long run, Russia believes that demand will not recover in three years. These factors may cause OPEC’s oil price expectation to remain below $50 / barrel.

 

Stable demand for raw materials to support the overall market preference

 

At present, the price of the second-class propanol in the lower reaches of Shandong Province is more stable than that in the downstream market. The current market situation of ethylene, the raw material of n-propanol, is rising, which supports the cost of n-propanol. It is expected that the overall market preference of n-propanol in the near future is expected.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose sharply this week, with the weekly low price of 6940 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the weekly high price of 7238 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 4.29%.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene broke through the cyclical fluctuation range at the beginning of last month, and began to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the market fluctuation was small. However, since September 1, the price of propylene has continued to rise on the whole line, and the upward range is more and more large. Up to the 4th day, the total price of propylene is about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction volume in the market is between 7180 yuan / ton and 7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7200 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory without pressure.

 

On September 3, crude oil prices fell significantly, which had a negative impact on propylene market.

 

Recently, PP futures market began to decline in the middle of the week, and the spot price rose steadily, with a weekly increase of 3.74%. It is expected that the favorable impact on propylene will be limited in the later period.

 

Acrylic acid market rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.67%, which had little impact on propylene.

 

Propylene oxide market rose steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 2.94%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

 

Epichlorohydrin price rose this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 2.57%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

 

This week, the domestic n-butanol price rose over the weekend, with a weekly increase of 1.17%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

 

Octanol market this week held steady in the first half of the week, and continued to rise in the second half of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.69%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

 

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The isopropanol market remained stable in the first half of this week, and continued to rise in the second half of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.67%, which also had a positive impact on propylene.

 

East China phenol fell slightly this week and then stabilized, with a weekly decline of 0.90%, which had little impact on propylene.

 

East China acetone continued to rise this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 8.20%, which had a significant effect on propylene.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: on the whole, there is no pressure on the inventory of the propylene manufacturers, the crude oil price is obviously downward, the downstream polypropylene futures market is declining, and the propylene oxide Market is stable. Although the overall profit space of the downstream is good, the purchasing enthusiasm still drops, and the price is at the high point of nearly four and a half months after continuous rising Propylene price is expected to have downward pressure in the future.

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of light potassium carbonate in China this week is 6187.50 yuan / ton. The current price is down 0.4% month on month, and the current price is 4.62% lower than last year.

 

This week, the domestic potash market remained stable, while the demand side was weak. Downstream factories took more goods on demand, curbing the price rise, and the price adjustment was not large. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 5950-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

 

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This week, the price of imported potassium chloride in the upstream continued to rise, and domestic potassium had the intention to follow up, but there was no big change for the time being. As a whole, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, the shipment situation is relatively slow, the number of new orders in the market is less, the trading atmosphere is flat and light, and the domestic potassium chloride market has little fluctuation. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

 

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that the recent rise in the import of potassium, but the overall transaction downstream is not positive, the market rate into a stalemate. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

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1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

 

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(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The market of propylene oxide rose sharply in August. According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, as of August 31, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 13600 yuan / ton, up 21.79% compared with August 1, and increased by 52.24% over the same period of three months.

 

Region July 31 August 31 remarks

RMB 10950-11100 / T, RMB 13350-13500 / T

East China 11400-11500 yuan / ton 13700-13800 yuan / ton

RMB 11000-11100 / T in South China, RMB 13300-13400 / T

In the first half of August, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises on the first half of August was 11166.67 yuan / ton. On the 1st-5th day, the raw material propylene fluctuated slightly, and the cost side had little impact. The factories generally had no accumulation. The downstream polyether rigid replenishment was stable, and the demand side follow-up was fair. The price of propylene oxide rose to 12233.33 yuan / ton on the 5th, and the propylene oxide plant showed an upward trend from June to 10th. The propylene oxide plant was not under pressure, and the new order was still relatively low On the 10th, the price of propylene oxide rose to 13100.00 yuan / ton. On November 15th, the raw material propylene declined, and the downstream pressure weakened. The new orders of propylene oxide plant decreased slightly, but there was no obvious pressure on the whole. The average price of propylene oxide enterprises on the 14th was 13100.00 yuan / ton The weak atmosphere is strong.

 

In the second half of August, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises on the 17th was 12966.67 yuan / ton. The price of propylene oxide began to stabilize, the downstream polyether orders increased, and the propylene oxide factory shipped smoothly. The manufacturers’ intention to support the market was obvious, and the offer rose. On the 20th, the price of propylene oxide rose to 13200 yuan / T. the factory had no pressure for the time being, which supported the price, but the terminal was under pressure, and the downstream new orders were reduced, On the 25th, the market of propylene oxide rose slightly to 13266.67 yuan / ton due to the increase of polyether orders at the beginning of the week and the positive transmission of the industrial chain. On the 27th, the overall production and sales of propylene oxide plants were not under pressure, which supported the manufacturers’ mentality. The price of propylene oxide was 13400 yuan / ton, and the new orders were slightly slower. The downstream held a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards high price raw materials, and the price remained stable The downstream polyether plant just needed to stabilize, and the price of propylene oxide rose again to 13600 yuan / ton.

 

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For upstream propylene, Shandong propylene broke through the oscillation range in August and stabilized after going up. According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose to break through the original range, and then fluctuated and stabilized, with 6848 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 6940 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.34%; the monthly low price appeared on August 4, with a monthly price of 6826 yuan / ton, and the monthly high price appeared from August 10 to 13, with a monthly amplitude of 3.08%.

 

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 31, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11733.33 yuan / ton, down 1.4% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. As of August 31, the pressure of downstream soft foam polyether increased, the raw material propylene oxide rose, the cost pressure rose, and the focus of market negotiation rose.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Propylene oxide business analysts believe that the supply and demand led in August, the rise in propylene oxide is strong. In September, the market price of raw material propylene is rising, and the downstream polyether is under pressure and rising. The middle and lower reaches are resistant to high price raw materials, most of which need to be fixed. However, the inventory of propylene oxide plant is still not under pressure. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be mainly operated at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance for the specific trend.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the business club’s big list data, this week’s domestic toluene market trend is stable. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3360 yuan / ton, down 0.59% month on month.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

The price trend of toluene is stable this week. Sinopec’s enterprises listed toluene price stable this week. The port storage continues to fall, but it is still high, and the pressure to go to the reservoir still exists. However, the import volume decreased this month, and the shortage of filling capacity began to ease. Supply surplus, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is still tepid, toluene demand continues to warm trend, market trading atmosphere is not active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3350 yuan / ton. The market continued to pay attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the supply of crude oil due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on the supply of crude oil, the continued spread of the overseas epidemic delayed the impact of economic restart on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

 

Upstream, crude oil: at the beginning of this week, affected by the hurricane, a large number of refining facilities in the Gulf of Mexico coastal area were closed, and oil prices rose strongly. In the middle of the week, the impact of Hurricane transit was less than expected, and US crude oil and Brent crude oil rose sharply and fell back. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $1.305/barrel to close at $44.875/barrel, up 3% from last week. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. The future market will pay close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $42-46 / barrel. The future crude oil demand outlook and oil price trend mainly depend on the global epidemic trend and the orderly recovery of various countries’ economies. Meanwhile, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the linkage with the US dollar index and the stock market, and how oil producing countries and oil companies adjust their production are also important factors affecting oil prices.

 

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Downstream, TDI continued to rise this week, the market quotation continued to rise, Wanhua chemical listed this week settlement price of 15000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a small upward trend. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4600 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 517 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 535 US dollars / ton CFR China, down about 14 US dollars / ton compared with last week. It is expected that the short-term PX market will be a small correction.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan. Overall, it is expected that toluene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

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Price list of aluminum ingot

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According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market on August 31 was 14776.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.55% compared with the average market price of 15010 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (August 1); compared with the valley value of average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.53%; compared with the valley value of average market price in the year (March 24), 11230 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.50%.

 

In August, the price of aluminum ingots fell first and then rose, with a range of 14400-15000 yuan / ton.

 

Supply and demand in August

 

1. Social inventory rose slightly after sharp decrease

 

In August, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly in the fourth week. According to statistical data, as of August 28, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 755000 tons, a weekly decrease of 7000 tons compared with 762000 tons on August 20, and an increase of 53000 tons compared with the 702000 tons on July 23.

 

2. Good news on raw alumina

 

In mid August, according to Norsk Hydro’s official website, maintenance of the ore pipeline at its paragominas bauxite mine in Brazil was suspended. The pipeline will return to service within two months. Hydro said the overhaul will affect the alumina plant’s output reduction, which is expected to reach 35% – 45% of the total annual capacity. Official data show that the plant has an annual capacity of 6.3 million tons.

 

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The short-term supply of alumina has sharply decreased, and the current aluminum price is strong, and the enthusiasm of alumina market speculation is rising. In terms of cost, it supports the strong operation of price to a certain extent.

 

3. The recovery trend of downstream consumption continues to improve

 

In July, the production and sales of automobiles completed 2.201 million and 2.12 million, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 21.9% and 16.4%; from January to July, the production and sales of automobiles reached 12.314 million and 12.365 million, respectively, down 11.8% and 12.7% year-on-year.

 

Future forecast

 

In the third quarter, the market is expected to have a peak consumption season, and the future market is dominated by strong shocks. It is estimated that the aluminum ingot price range in September is 14500-15500 yuan / ton.

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