Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China have significantly decreased this week. On September 17th, sulfur prices were at 1090 yuan/ton, and at the beginning of the week, sulfur prices were at 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.03%, a decrease of 3.25% compared to the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market in East China is weak, and prices have significantly decreased. The demand for phosphate fertilizer in the end market is gradually stabilizing, and downstream demand is slowing down. The demand for sulfur is mainly based on demand. The supply of refinery goods is normal, but the shipment of enterprises is not good. Affected by the increase in port inventory, manufacturers in Shandong region are hindered in shipping. In order to alleviate inventory reduction, refinery prices are constantly decreasing. As of the 15th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong refineries is around 1080-1120 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur ranges from 1050 to 1210 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid price has slightly increased. On September 17th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% compared to the beginning of the week price of 306 yuan/ton. The demand for phosphate fertilizer has weakened, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, and the support for sulfuric acid demand is insufficient. Acid companies have no pressure on inventory and are actively shipping. During the week, mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers have seen price fluctuations based on their own inventory situation, while upstream prices have fallen, and cost support is insufficient. The sulfuric acid market is mainly consolidation.

The high market price of monoammonium phosphate remained stable. On September 17th, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3100 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3100 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable during the week. The demand in the phosphate fertilizer market is stabilizing, with a decrease in new orders for monoammonium phosphate. Holders are actively shipping, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened. With the support of pending orders from manufacturers, the focus of monoammonium phosphate factory trading is temporarily stable.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the operation of sulfur refining plants is normal, the market supply of goods is stable, and port resources are constantly increasing. The market supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is slowing down. The enthusiasm for entering the market is weakened, and demand support is limited. From the perspective of supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will narrow and operate. In the future, specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene slightly increased this week (September 11th to September 17th). On September 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 8340 yuan/ton, while on September 11th, the benchmark price was 8240 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21%.

Strong cost support for WTI crude oil exceeding $90 for toluene

International crude oil futures rose significantly. On September 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $90.16 per barrel, an increase of $1.64 or 1.9%. This year, WTI reached the $90 level for the first time, reaching a new high since November 2022. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $93.70 per barrel, an increase of $1.82 or 2.0%. The main reason is that the expectation of supply tightening has overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventory.

Product oil prices continue to rise, and demand forms support for toluene

Recently, some merchants have a decent restocking mentality, and their main outsourcing has increased. Refinery inventory has remained low. As the temperature drops and summer vacation ends, there has been a certain decrease in private car travel. However, with the support of the upcoming Double Festival, some manufacturers may stock up in advance. In addition, the cost side still has support, and the gasoline market remains at a high level.

Recently, the price trend of the diesel market has been relatively strong. On the one hand, crude oil cost support still exists, which is beneficial for the domestic refined oil market. On the other hand, the third batch of export quotas for Chinese refined oil has finally been implemented, further loosening the control of domestic refined oil exports. Under the stimulation of high profits, the enthusiasm of finished oil export units has increased, especially in the case of diesel or additional demand. Finally, the high temperature weather gradually subsided, and the workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing season, diesel demand slowly recovered, and an increase in demand still provides support for the domestic diesel market. The price increase in the domestic diesel market is the main factor.

Downstream PX construction continues with 7 pairs of toluene having rigid support

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal, and PX external prices have risen due to the rise in crude oil. As of the 14th, the closing prices in Asia were 1123-1125 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1148-1150 USD/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices have surged again, with support for the cost of toluene; Downstream products such as toluene and PX have a strong demand for support for toluene. Although downstream gas purchases may be slightly insufficient as toluene prices rise, supplier prices are firm. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will operate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 has decreased this week. On September 8th last Friday, the average domestic PVC price was 6376 yuan/ton, and on September 14th this Thursday, the average price was 6310 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 1.04%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC fell. The upstream calcium carbide market prices have temporarily stabilized and consolidated, and the futures market continues to weaken. The confidence in the PVC spot market is unstable, and prices have significantly decreased. Downstream market demand is weak, market inquiries are increasing, and purchasing goods is cautious. The downstream point price transaction is acceptable, with pre holiday restocking being the main focus, and the overall transaction atmosphere is still not good. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 6050-6450 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed slightly lower on September 13th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $88.52 per barrel, a decrease of $0.32 or 0.4%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $91.88 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.2%. No unexpected increase in crude oil inventory has brought pressure on oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have temporarily stabilized and sorted out this week. The average price of calcium carbide during the week is 3350 yuan/ton. Upstream orchid charcoal prices are stable and relatively strong, with acceptable cost support. Downstream demand is average, and the market maintains a stable trend. It is expected that the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region will be mainly sorted and operated in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the trading atmosphere in the PVC spot market this week is not good. Upstream calcium carbide prices have temporarily stabilized, while futures prices have declined, suppressing confidence in the spot market. As the National Day holiday approaches, replenishing inventory before downstream festivals may bring certain benefits. It is expected that the PVC market will fluctuate in the short term and closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from September 6th to 13th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2540 yuan/ton to 2491 yuan/ton. During the cycle, prices decreased by 1.93%, with a month on month increase of 4.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.60%. The methanol futures market has retreated from a high level, and the sentiment in the spot market has weakened. Traders have been cautious in their operations, slowing down the speed of methanol pickup, increasing inventory of production enterprises, and manufacturers selling at inflated prices. The market is stagnant, and the domestic methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating.

As of the close on September 13th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed lower. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2577 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2596 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2520 yuan/ton. It closed at 2525 yuan/ton in the end of the day, a decrease of 35% or 0.04% compared to the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 1647833 lots, the position was 1216986 lots, and the daily increase was 207 lots.

On the cost side, in the off-season of agricultural demand on the demand side, cautious procurement is the main focus for industrial demand. In the short term, the price of chemical coal may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: the demand for dimethyl ether has decreased; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand may increase slightly; Formaldehyde: As the daily production of the device increases, the demand for formaldehyde may increase; Downstream acetic acid: demand for acetic acid may increase; The change in chloride is not significant. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall recovery is greater than the loss, leading to an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on September 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $329.25-330.25 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 75.00-77.00 cents per gallon, up 1 cent per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 228.00-230.00 euros/ton, a decrease of 2 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, costs are relatively weak, and there are breakthroughs in pre holiday stocking in terms of supply and demand by netizens. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

Price trend

In early September, the domestic ABS market saw a significant increase, with spot prices increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11625 yuan/ton, a+7.14% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of around 92%, which is almost unchanged compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is generally abundant. The inventory position has significantly decreased, with around 160000 tons as of the end of last week. The supply side has increased its support for the spot market.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials was strong in early September. The acrylonitrile market remained stable after rising. The narrow consolidation of propylene prices still provides cost support for acrylonitrile; Downstream construction started slightly lower; The operation of the acrylonitrile unit has been basically stable, and the price of acrylonitrile has remained stable after rising.

The price of butadiene rose again in the early days. Encouraged by news from the downstream synthetic rubber market, merchants have shown a high sentiment in their offers, coupled with the continuous increase in Sinopec’s supply prices, leading to a rapid upward trend in the domestic butadiene market. At present, the spot resources in the butadiene market are relatively abundant, and some high priced transactions are not smooth, suppressing the market’s upward trend.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market has been improving recently and has been undergoing consolidation. The reason for the early rise was due to the continuous maintenance of devices, low styrene inventory, and a rising market. Recently, international oil prices have risen, and cost support has maintained a good level, while the styrene market has also risen. The market has risen to a high level, which has affected downstream willingness to receive goods, causing styrene to stagnate. However, the industry fundamentals are solid, and the mindset of the industry is biased. It is expected that the styrene spot market will continue to rise slightly in the short term.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have shown a significant increase in stocking enthusiasm. Under the traditional demand peak season market, coupled with macroeconomic improvement, buyers have a certain upward mentality. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers has slightly decreased, and the current procurement operation is slightly cautious. The overall trading trend remains hot.

 
Future Market Forecast

In early September, the upstream three materials of ABS strengthened, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. Petrochemical plants have started construction at a high level, with smooth shipments and significant market inventory digestion. The demand side support has strengthened, and the trading volume has fully entered the traditional peak season level of “Golden Nine Silver Ten”. However, the increase in spot prices may affect the willingness of terminals to receive goods, and it is expected that the ABS market may continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

Price trend

In early September, the domestic POM market continued to show a positive trend, with spot prices continuing to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 11th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 14875 yuan/ton, a decrease of+2.76% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market prices in Shandong region have been fluctuating and consolidating recently. There is a downward trend in the price of raw material methanol, but formaldehyde did not keep up with the increase in methanol in the early stage, and the price is still at a low level. The downward trend is not obvious this time, and the market trading sentiment is average. Formaldehyde manufacturers ship normally, and the market fluctuation is not significant.

On the supply side:

Due to frequent maintenance, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has continued to decline recently, and the industry load has decreased to around 77%. In terms of supply, current inventory continues to be low, and most enterprises have no inventory pressure, even experiencing negative inventory oversold. However, some production capacity is expected to return to work in the near future, and POM supply support remains generally strong.

In terms of demand:

At present, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, and they are stimulated by the tight supply of goods. In the early stage, the enthusiasm of enterprises to stock up is still good, and the transaction position of orders is high. However, due to the decrease in price acceptance after the rise of POM recently, the trading situation on the market has weakened. Overall, the level of spot price support for POM on the demand side has declined.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market continued to rise in early September. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is still declining, and the shortage of goods on site is worsening. There is currently no industry inventory pressure, and suppliers have strong support for spot goods. On the demand side, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is maintained, and market chasing operations are reduced. Downstream users are gradually resisting high priced sources of goods. Some traders have flexible profit margins for shipping, dragging the average price level. Although there is strong short-term supply side benefits, it is expected that the POM market may enter a volatile consolidation market in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 8th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% from the beginning of the month’s price of 21100.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 19.44% from the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 8th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24766.67 yuan/ton, an increase from the beginning of the month price of 25333.33 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 0.65% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Entering September, the prices of upstream raw materials continued to rise. As of September 8th, the prices of trichloromethane and hydrofluoric acid increased by 2.23% and 0.66% respectively. Supported by higher raw material costs, some companies have raised their R22 market prices, driving a slight rebound in domestic R22 market prices.

Entering September, the price of trichloroethylene in China has slightly increased, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has continued to rise, rising by 0.66% within the month. The cost of raw materials has continued to rise, and some enterprises have raised the factory price of R134a this week, supporting a slight rebound in domestic R134a prices.

In terms of raw materials, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices have bottomed out and continued to rise, and the rebound in raw material costs will further support domestic refrigerant prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the domestic prices of R22 and R134a will continue to remain stable, moderate, and strong in the short term.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has dropped from a high point

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 4th, the price of DOTP was 12031 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87% compared to the price of 12260 yuan/ton on August 28th. The price of isooctanol has decreased, PTA prices have stopped rising and stabilized, raw material cost support has weakened, downstream PVC market has stabilized, and plasticizer demand support is not there. This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has fallen from its high point.

The high price of isooctanol has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 4th was 12970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% compared to the price of 13040 yuan/ton on August 29th. The domestic isooctanol plant started slowly and restarted, the supply of isooctanol slowly recovered, and the high price of isooctanol fell.

PTA prices have stopped rising and stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PTA price on September 4th was 6179.09 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61% compared to the PTA price of 6081.36 yuan/ton on August 28th. Crude oil prices fluctuate and rise, PTA costs rise, PTA prices fluctuate and rise, plasticizer DOTP raw material costs rise, and the support for future DOTP increases.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the slow recovery of isooctanol production, the fluctuating rise of isooctanol prices, PTA prices, and the cost support for plasticizer product DOTP still exist; PVC prices are stabilizing, and downstream PVC procurement enthusiasm has rebounded less than expected, resulting in insufficient support for plasticizer demand. In the future, there is still insufficient demand support for cost support, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fall from a high point in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite remained stable and fluctuated slightly in August. As of August 31st, the average market price in Henan Province was 7850 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month at 7850 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 2.28%.

In August, the domestic cryolite market stabilized and operated, with stable quotations from cryolite enterprises being the main focus. Upstream prices have risen within the month, leading to an increase in production costs for cryolite. However, downstream consumers are more resistant to high priced cryolite, and their enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is not high. Although cryolite manufacturers maintain rational inventory, it is difficult to increase their prices. Manufacturers negotiate shipments, and the market mentality is wait-and-see, resulting in stable cryolite prices.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market continued to rise in August, and the gaming situation in the domestic fluorite industry remained low during the month. The operating rate of enterprises remained low, and it was difficult to start raw ore operations. The spot supply of fluorite was tight, and the demand side hydrofluoric acid price rose, supporting the rise of the fluorite market. The price trend of fluorite prices increased, and as of the end of the month, the average price of fluorite was 3168.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.68% compared to the price of 3056.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The downstream aluminum market fluctuated and rose in August. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 19173.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.10% compared to the average market price of 18596.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In August, electrolytic aluminum inventory was relatively low, with tight spot supply and good inventory performance. At the same time, terminal market demand was relatively strong, supporting the upward trend of aluminum prices in the market.

Future Market Forecast: Cryolite enterprises maintain rational inventory, manufacturers actively ship, downstream demand is average, market trading atmosphere is weak, raw material construction continues to be low, and strong price increases are good for cryolite support. At the same time, the downstream aluminum market is also operating strongly, with cost support. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to rise in the future, with specific attention paid to changes in manufacturers’ inventory and downstream acceptance.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8119.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to 8041.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The market of refined and hydrogenated naphtha has fluctuated and risen.

As of August 31, the mainstream factory average price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 7946.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60% compared to 7899.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The market for locally refined straight-run naphtha fluctuated and rose.

On August 31, the naphtha commodity index was 100.20, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 17.63% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 137.22% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: In August, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and increased. Currently, the mainstream price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8100-8200 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton. In the first half of August, there was no significant substantial improvement in terminal performance. Refineries were actively shipping, while merchants were cautious in pursuing higher prices. There was a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and transactions were mainly on demand; In the second half of August, a small amount of demand was released in the direction of refining and reforming ethylene, and refineries were actively shipping. However, the flat trend of gasoline and diesel suppressed the naphtha market, and the market operation was cautious, with demand being the main transaction. As of the week ending August 30th, Singapore’s light distillate inventory increased by 162000 barrels, reaching its highest level in three weeks, reaching 12.928 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate inventory decreased by 646000 barrels to 7.989 million barrels, reaching a two-week low. Singapore’s fuel oil depot experienced a decrease of 2.184 million barrels in the current week, reaching a 6-week low of 19.915 million barrels.

Upstream: In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling. In the first half of the year, the market continued to rise due to supply concerns and the positive trend during the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations.

Downstream: In August, the toluene preliminary maintenance equipment was restarted, and the domestic disproportionation equipment started to decline. In addition, the consumption tax on mixed aromatics further separated the mixed aromatics of multiple enterprises, resulting in an increase in toluene supply. However, due to the increase in gasoline consumption in the United States, the price difference of toluene between the United States and Asia has further expanded, stimulating domestic exports and offsetting the pressure brought by the increase in domestic supply. The price of toluene continues to operate at a high level. The supply of mixed xylene continues to remain tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. The downstream market has not changed much, and the overall demand for PX is good. Merchants have a strong willingness to stand up for prices, and the PX market price is strong in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the current slight increase in international crude oil has resulted in weak guidance for the local refined naphtha market; At present, the local refining naphtha market has sufficient supply, with a small amount of ethylene cracking in the terminal direction that needs to be released. Refineries are actively shipping, but the terminal benefits are limited, and market operations are cautious. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be mainly consolidated in the near future.