According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic spandex market continued to maintain stability this week (October 16-20). As of October 20, the price of 40D spandex was 34250 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 9.57%. The industry’s starting point remained around 72%. At present, the quotation of the spandex factory is temporarily stable, and there are discounts for actual orders.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D/ 30D/ 40D

Zhejiang/ 38000./37000./35000

Henan/ 37000./35500./33000

Fujian/ 37000./34000./32500

Jiangsu/ 39500./37500./36500

The domestic pure MDI price continues to decline, and the mainstream spot market in the East China region is negotiating a price of 20000 to 20300 yuan/ton for wire transfer and self pickup in barrels, a decrease of about 200 yuan/ton compared to last week. The domestic price of PTMEG is stable, with a molecular weight of 1800 quoted at 21000 yuan/ton, and some factories do not offer prices to the outside world temporarily. The overall operating rate of the industry is around 78%. Two sets of 30000 ton/year PTMEG units from Henan Nenghua were shut down on the evening of September 20th, following the shutdown of raw materials, and are expected to restart in the near future.

After the National Day holiday, the textile market’s shipments were lukewarm and did not show the expected explosive scene of “nine gold and ten silver”. Overall performance was fatigue, with orders mainly being small and medium-sized. Moreover, most textile companies have reported that the recovery time for the final payment is relatively long, resulting in increased financial pressure and inventory pressure on finished products. Therefore, they are more cautious in starting and producing. Currently, the operating rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 65%. The ‘Silver Ten’ is over half way through, and the confidence support of enterprises is limited. Many people take a wait-and-see attitude and place orders cautiously.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current spandex market is in a stalemate, with weaker support for the raw material end, and downstream maintenance is just in need of follow-up. During the peak season, the overall market situation was weaker than expected, and the purchase and sales volume was delayed, which did not meet expectations. There is generally a lack of confidence in the future market. In the short term, without significant improvement in fundamentals, the price of spandex may be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 17th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3083 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the average market price of 3083 yuan/ton on October 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 17th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3883 yuan/ton, which is 0.21% higher than the average market price of 3875 yuan/ton on October 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Market quotation situation

Since October, the market price of ammonium phosphate has been mainly in consolidation operation. As of October 17th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 3050 yuan/ton, while the factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The 64% market quotation for diammonium in Shandong region is about 3900 yuan/ton, and the 57% market quotation for diammonium is about 3400 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

Cost side

The price of raw material phosphate rock has increased, the price of raw material sulfur has decreased, and the cost side is mixed.

In terms of raw material sulfur. Since October, the domestic sulfur market trend has been mainly downward. As of October 17th, the reference average price of sulfur in East China is 916.67 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. After the end of the National Day holiday, the overall trend of phosphorus ore market prices continues to rise. As of October 17th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is based on 998 yuan/ton, with a post holiday price increase of 2.89%. It is expected that in the short term, the overall high level of the phosphorus ore market will be mainly strong.

Supply and demand side

At present, there are relatively few new orders in the monoammonium phosphate market, but there is still support from pending orders, and the market is mainly wait-and-see. Recently, there has been an increase in equipment maintenance for enterprises, resulting in a decrease in market supply. The supply of diammonium phosphate in some areas is tight, and the market trading direction is good. Autumn wheat fertilizer is sweeping away, and demand in the Northeast market is concentrated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium phosphate analysts from Business Society, the current price of sulfur, the raw material for ammonium phosphate, has continued to decline, and cost support is not strong. However, the autumn market demand is still there, and with the support of pending orders, the market continues to be strong. It is expected that the short-term ammonium phosphate market will be mainly organized and operated.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China continued to decline this week. On October 15th, the sulfur price was 933.33 yuan/ton, and on October 9th, the sulfur price was 956.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% during the week and 9.20% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the sulfur market in East China is weak, and the terminal phosphate fertilizer market has come to an end. After the holiday, downstream replenishment demand is weak, new orders in the market are reduced, and the on-site trading atmosphere is light. The shipment of sulfur refineries is not smooth, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is increasing. In order to stimulate the continuous reduction of sulfur quotations for shipment, the sulfur price has dropped significantly during the week. As of the 13th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong refineries is around 930-970 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 900-950 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid price trend is weak and stable. On October 15th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 306.00 yuan/ton, which is consistent with the price of 306.00 yuan/ton on October 9th. The demand in the terminal industry has weakened, downstream procurement has slowed down, and the mentality of the industry is mainly wait-and-see. Sour enterprises have temporarily stabilized their shipments, and the focus of market transactions is relatively low.

The monoammonium phosphate market is operating smoothly. On October 15th, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3083.33 yuan/ton. On October 9th, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3083.33 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable during the week. The autumn sales of phosphate fertilizer have come to an end, with a decrease in new orders for monoammonium phosphate and weakened demand support. However, the factory still has support for pending orders. Coupled with cost impacts, the price of monoammonium phosphate has stabilized and operated.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the operation of sulfur refining plants is normal, with sufficient market supply of goods, average downstream demand, no longer favorable terminal conditions, and effective support on the market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the sulfur market will continue to operate weakly in the future, with price fluctuations. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8438 yuan/ton on October 1, and the average price on October 13 was 8238 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation fell by 2.37%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9612 yuan/ton on October 1st, and 9437 yuan/ton on October 13th. During this period, the quotation decreased by 1.82%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9087 yuan/ton on October 1st, and 8800 yuan/ton on October 13th. During this period, the quotation decreased by 3.16%.

After the holiday, the price of polyethylene showed a downward trend. During holidays, the international crude oil market fell, and cost support for polyethylene weakened. In order to reduce inventory, the factory prices of petrochemical enterprises have been lowered, and traders have adjusted accordingly. After the holiday, market demand fell short of expectations, and market procurement was cautious, with more profits being offered to promote transactions. Among them, during the off-season of aquaculture net production, there was insufficient follow-up on orders.

On October 13th, polyethylene l2401 rose 0.07% and closed at 8021. After the National Day holiday, the overall trend of polyethylene futures market is weak.

Downstream factories have limited replenishment after the holiday. But during the peak season of demand for greenhouse films, the demand is relatively stable; After the continuous decline in the polyethylene market after the holiday, it is expected that polyethylene may be mainly subject to fluctuations and adjustments.

Price trend

In September, the domestic ABS market showed a positive trend, with spot prices of various brands increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12000 yuan/ton, with a+10.06% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In September, the load of the ABS industry remained at a high level throughout the month, with an average monthly operating rate of around 91%, which was basically unchanged compared to the end of August. The on-site supply of goods was generally abundant. The inventory position significantly decreased in the first half of the month and accumulated slightly towards the end of the month. The supply side’s support for the spot market is still sufficient.

In terms of raw materials: Since September, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been mixed, with the acrylonitrile market continuing to rise. The high price of raw material propylene is organized, and the cost of acrylonitrile is supported; The main downstream construction remains at a high level, with demand supporting acrylonitrile; The start of acrylonitrile production in September slightly decreased compared to August, with no pressure on inventory, and the acrylonitrile market continued to rise.

After the butadiene market surged in September, it tended to strengthen consolidation. The downstream synthetic rubber market has strengthened, driven by repeated price hikes by major production enterprises, while external prices have continued to rise. The market fundamentals are bullish, bringing a significant boost to the mindset of the industry. Although demand has cooled at the end of the month, there is support from overseas market news. The butadiene market fluctuates and consolidates.

The styrene market rose in September and then fell back. In the early days, devices were undergoing maintenance, and styrene inventory was low, leading to a higher market. In the middle of the year, international oil prices fell, and the pure benzene market followed suit, leading to a collapse in cost support. In addition, the low inventory levels at the port in the early stage and the favorable dual reserve situation have basically exhausted, and downstream consumption has shifted to just demand. Styrene production and sales profits have decreased, spot transactions have been poor, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation, leading to a slight decline in prices. The current market guidance is relatively short, and the market may be difficult to rise or fall.

In terms of demand: September is the traditional peak season for ABS demand, with downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, showing a significant increase in stocking enthusiasm. Combined with the Federal Reserve’s temporary interest rate hike, the macroeconomic situation is improving, and buyers have a certain upward trend, resulting in a booming market overall. But as downstream enterprises gradually complete their pre holiday stocking, the transaction situation in the latter half of the year gradually declines. In addition, the acceptance level of manufacturers has been affected by the previous increase in ABS prices, resulting in a contraction in demand at the end of the month.

Future Market Forecast

In September, the three upstream materials of ABS showed mixed ups and downs, with strong and then weak support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants is at a high level, and social inventory is starting to accumulate in the latter half of the year. The peak season market on the demand side has released, and the stocking consumption at the end of the month has gradually subsided. It is expected that the ABS market may remain weak in the short term.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market showed a positive trend in September. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the mixed benchmark price of PA66 in China was 20166.67 yuan/ton on September 30th, with a+9.40% increase or decrease compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In September, the market price of PA66 rose, and overall, spot prices of all brands have increased. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry remained above 65% during the month, which was basically flat compared to the end of August. The production line situation of the enterprise has remained stable with minor changes. After the on-site supply of goods has been digested within a month, the overall inventory is not under pressure, and the support from suppliers is strengthening. Terminal enterprises still focus on maintaining production, with weak demand for on-site stock preparation, and moderate support for spot goods on the demand side. On the upstream side, the domestic supply of hexamethylene diamine remains tight, and the market continues to be strong. The adipic acid market rose and then fell, while the trend of raw material pure benzene gradually weakened. The cost side’s support for the PA66 market is mainly concentrated in the aspect of hexamethylene diamine. At present, the main positive guidance in the market is focused on supplier price support, and the overall price of PA66 has increased significantly.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 strengthened in September. The price of raw materials fluctuates with each rise, providing reasonable support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is almost horizontal, the inventory position is low, and the supply support is significant. The demand side still focuses on maintaining production, and the acceptance will be affected to some extent after price increases. It is expected that PA66 will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5600 yuan/ton on September 18th. On September 22nd, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5733 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 increased by 2.38% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax increased, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine first fell and then rose, resulting in increased cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, procurement needs are cautious, and market transactions are average. Due to the continuous high prices of raw material liquid wax, most chlorinated paraffin manufacturers have raised their prices. As of September 22nd, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 6100 yuan/ton, while the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 5300-5900 yuan/ton, which is a national standard.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to rise this week, and liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated this week, and the market situation is unstable, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin industry believe that the recent trend in raw material prices has been positive, but terminal demand support is limited, and the chlorinated paraffin industry is operating cautiously. It is expected that the short-term price consolidation of chlorinated paraffin will be the main focus, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.

The price trend of domestic fluorite continues to rise, with an average price of 3375 yuan/ton as of the 21st, an increase of 0.75% compared to the price of 3350 yuan/ton on the 15th, and a year-on-year increase of 21.35%.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting raw ore production, shortage of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, As a result, it is difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations, and the spot price of fluorite is very tight. The spot price remains at a high level during negotiations, which has affected the continuous rise of fluorite market prices.

On the demand side: The hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and the refrigerant market is rising

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions has been negotiated to increase to 10200-10600 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is relatively normal, and the sulfuric acid market price is at a high level. This has affected the market price of hydrofluoric acid, which to some extent supports the market price of fluorite. In addition, the approaching winter storage, Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have started stocking raw materials, resulting in a slight increase in the fluorite market.

The market trend of downstream refrigerant products in the terminal market has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and downstream procurement needs to follow up. Some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance, and the monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small. The price trend of R22 has increased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price of R134a is rising. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have seen price trends rise. Currently, costs are firm, and the reluctance of companies to sell is escalating. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000 to 28000 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant companies to have a clear intention to raise prices, and export orders have rebounded. The transmission of the industrial chain is smooth, The cost boost slightly highlights the profit margin of enterprises, which is beneficial for supporting the upward trend of refrigerant market and to some extent, is beneficial for the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Future Market Forecast: It is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines in the near future, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. In addition, the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and hydrofluoric acid companies hold an optimistic attitude towards the later stage. The refrigerant market trend is rising, and in the later stage, as the temperature decreases, the start of fluorite production in the north will decline. At that time, the tight spot situation will intensify. Business Society analyst Chen Ling believes that fluorite prices in the later stage

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of September 20th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 75000 yuan/ton, which is mainly stable compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 75000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and new orders are not accepted.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus. Last week, the price for the same period was 75000 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream price is around 75000 yuan/ton, and the overall market is weak and downward. Downstream replenishment is on demand, while upstream lithium carbonate is stable and weak. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is weak. In the short term, lithium carbonate will maintain its previous trend, and manufacturers will only supply old customers with goods, while new customers will not take orders.

Chemical Commodity Index: On September 18th, the chemical index stood at 969 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 30.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 62.04% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Analysts from Business Society believe that the lithium iron phosphate market will operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

Price trend

In mid September, the domestic POM market continued to show a positive trend, with spot prices continuing to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 19th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 15050 yuan/ton, a decrease of+3.97% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong region has recently fallen and then moved sideways. On market trading tends to be light, and the price of raw material methanol shows a downward trend. Weak demand combined with declining cost support is expected to lead to a decline in formaldehyde prices in Shandong in the near future.

On the supply side:

In mid September, the maintenance and resumption of POM devices in China were mutually reinforcing, with an overall decline in operating rates and a decrease in industry load to below 73%. In terms of supply, current inventory continues to be low, and most enterprises have no inventory pressure, even experiencing negative inventory oversold. However, the profitability of enterprises has recently shrunk, and the overall level of POM supply support is still acceptable.

In terms of demand:

At present, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, and they are stimulated by tight supply of goods. In the early stage, the enthusiasm of enterprises to stock up is still good. However, recently, the acceptance of POM prices by buyers has decreased, and order transactions have shrunk. The situation of on-site trading has significantly weakened compared to the previous stage. Overall, the demand side’s support level for POM spot prices has declined.

Future Market Forecast

In mid September, the POM market strengthened after rising. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants continues to decline, and the supply of goods on site remains tight. The industry’s inventory pressure is relatively low, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is still acceptable. On the demand side, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is maintained, and market chasing operations are reduced. Downstream users are gradually resisting high priced sources of goods. Traders have increased their actual orders and covert shipments. At present, the supplier advantage is still strong, but in the short term, the stocking sentiment is cautious and there is an expectation of increased supply in the industry. It is expected that the POM market may enter a volatile consolidation market in the future.