Stable operation of ethylene glycol in November

According to data from Business News Agency, on November 10th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4141.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4000-4350 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4000 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4350 yuan/ton.

On November 9th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 479 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 478 US dollars/ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Downstream demand

The downstream polyester production load is relatively stable, and downstream demand remains stable. The polyester factory load is maintained around 88%, and in terms of terminals, the operating load of the loom is 80%, with a negative 1% decrease in the circumferential ratio. The operating load of the elastic loom is 89%, and the circumferential ratio remains unchanged.

High port inventory

As of November 9, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.1583 million tons, which is still relatively high compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on October 30, 1.143 million tons, with a cumulative inventory of 15300 tons.

Future market forecast

The reality of ethylene glycol supply and demand is loose, with high inventory, suppressing price increases. Currently, prices are low, and cost support is strong. It is expected that the probability of maintaining a volatile sideways trend in the short term will increase. The volatile range in November may slightly move up.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 8, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4100 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4333 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.38%.

Looking back in October, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market did not experience the “Silver Ten” effect, and the market trend moved towards a low level amidst fluctuations. In November, the dimethyl carbonate market stopped falling and stabilized, and the overall market showed a stable and organized operation. On the 7th, dimethyl carbonate broke the calm, and some factories and suppliers narrowly lowered the price of dimethyl carbonate by 100 yuan/ton. As of November 8th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 3900-4000 yuan/ton, with a higher price of 4200 yuan/ton and a lower price of around 3650 yuan/ton.

Analysis of market influencing factors

In terms of demand: Currently, there is limited downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate, with a light trading atmosphere on the market and limited inquiries for new orders. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the support provided by the demand side for dimethyl carbonate is loose.

On the supply side: Currently, the overall operating rate on site has not changed much. With the slow pace of shipment, some dimethyl carbonate factories are under certain supply pressure, and the supply and demand transmission performance is stagnant. The support provided by the supply side to the market is limited.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the atmosphere for new orders in the dimethyl carbonate market is weak, and the atmosphere is relatively strong on the market. Downstream demand is generally boosted, and the basic benefits brought to the market are limited. The overall lack of effective support in the dimethyl carbonate market. Business analysts believe that in the short term, the weak adjustment and operation of the dimethyl carbonate market are the main factors, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream prices of styrene in Shandong have been fluctuating and rising recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8691.67 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48%. The price has increased by 5.54% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene fluctuated slightly last month, while this week’s market was volatile and exploratory. The international oil price is high, and the pure benzene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Styrene inventory is relatively ideal, and manufacturers are selling normally. The styrene market has slightly increased.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On October 30th, the price of pure benzene was 7900 yuan/ton. On Friday (November 3rd), the price of pure benzene was 7920 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to last week and 11.67% compared to the same period last year. After the end of the month delivery, the market quickly fell and the overall spot resource trading was light. The Shandong market trading Lihuayi styrene unit is scheduled to undergo maintenance, but the demand for gas in the intraday market is relatively high, and the focus of the transaction continues to shift downwards.

In terms of downstream market, the three major downstream markets of styrene have fluctuated. PS prices rose earlier this week. The raw material styrene is subject to strong vibration, resulting in increased cost pressure. Some devices in East and South China have recovered, with slight growth in industry production, and some supply sources have tightened due to production cuts. The mainstream market price reference for GPPS in South China is 9120 yuan/ton. (excluding taxes)

This week’s EPS market has risen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10100.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of ordinary materials this week was 10150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49%. The terminal profit is good, and the market transactions are positive. It is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly show a strong trend.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable, with the overall performance of the upstream three materials rising and falling, and overall support for the cost side of ABS is weak. The high starting point of the petrochemical plant has dropped, and some supply pressures have eased. Demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market may maintain a weak and stable consolidation trend in the short term.

At present, according to the news, international oil prices have fallen, cost support is weak, styrene plants have restarted, production is expected to increase slightly, and spot purchasing intentions are weak. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will be weak and mainly consolidated.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 fell first and then rose this week, indicating an overall price increase. At the beginning of the week, the average price of PVC in China was 5854 yuan/ton, while the average price over the weekend was 5884 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.51% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC fell first and then rose, and overall, the price rose. On Friday, the closing price of futures rose, driving confidence in the spot market. The market atmosphere was relatively active, with more inquiries and tentative increases from manufacturers. However, there was a clear resistance to high prices in the downstream market, with traders mainly shipping at one go, and actual transactions remained cautious. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5820-6050 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on November 2nd, international crude oil futures ended their three consecutive declines and saw a rebound. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.46 per barrel, an increase of $2.02 or 2.5%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 86.85 yuan/barrel, an increase of 2.22 US dollars or 2.6%. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged, reducing future demand pressure, and increasing risk appetite.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with an average domestic price of 2916.67 yuan/ton. The upstream price of blue charcoal is stable and weak, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market is average, and the demand for calcium carbide is weakening.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the PVC spot market has had average trading volume this week. Upstream calcium carbide is temporarily stable and organized, with acceptable support. International crude oil futures have ended their three consecutive declines and rebounded, which has affected the PVC futures market and boosted confidence in the spot market. It is expected that the PVC market will move slightly upwards in the short term and closely monitor changes in the news.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been experiencing weak fluctuations, and spot prices have been generally lowered. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of October 31, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14575 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.69% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam stabilized after a decline in October. The raw material pure benzene has generally declined due to the impact of international crude oil fluctuations, resulting in loose support for the raw material. At the same time, a new device for caprolactam was put into operation and laid out in October, and the production line resumed work, resulting in an increase in supply. Downstream demand is average, resulting in a bearish trend for caprolactam. Overall, the cost support for PA6 has decreased.

On the supply side:

In October, the load of PA6 production enterprises showed significant stability and slight changes, with an average operating rate of around 73% within the month. The market supply is almost flat compared to the previous period, and the on-site supply has increased. However, due to the low inventory level, there has been no significant increase in supplier pressure, and there is still support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 66% and 81%, respectively. The willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up within the month is not strong, and their acceptance of high priced goods is not good, resulting in a lag in the circulation speed of some goods. Market trading is concentrated on low prices, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 chips is weakening.

Future Market Forecast

In October, the PA6 market fluctuated and reorganized after a decline. The price of caprolactam has fallen, and the cost support for PA6 is weak. The demand side is cautious in picking up goods, and market trading tends towards the low end. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, the inventory position is low, and the polymerization plants have a strong willingness to raise prices. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to consolidate in the short term.

Gold prices rose first and then fell in October

The price of precious metal gold fell first and then rose in October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot market price of gold on October 31, 2023 was 478.40 yuan/gram, an increase of 3.35% compared to the spot market price of 462.87 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (October 1).

Silver prices fell by 0.89%

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average silver market price on October 31, 2023 was 5853.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.51% compared to the average silver market price of 5766 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (October 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

From November 2022 to early February 2023, the price of precious metals significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US bank crisis, the price of precious metals once again entered a surge stage. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices have become stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high correction. Recently, due to geopolitical factors, risk aversion sentiment has risen and continued to rise.

Fundamental data

On October 30th, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 16320 kilograms, an increase of 14.54% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 537900 kilograms, a decrease of 31.20% compared to the previous trading day.

The gold inventory of the previous exchange was 2820 kilograms, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver inventory increased by 6124 kilograms to 1080820 kilograms compared to the previous trading day.

The newly announced gold SPDR ETF position was 859.49 tons, a decrease of 2.31 tons from the previous trading day. The position of silver SLV ETF was 13773.68 tons, a decrease of 28.50 tons compared to the previous trading day.

Message surface

The latest announcement from the US Treasury Department shows that the federal government is expected to borrow $776 billion in the fourth quarter, which is lower than market expectations and a decrease of $76 billion from the previous estimated borrowing amount of $852 billion at the end of July; The TGA balance remains at $750 billion. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance predicts that in the first quarter of next year, the borrowing scale will be $816 billion, and the TGA balance will remain at $750 billion.

Hedge sentiment dominates the precious metal market

In October, precious metal prices were able to reverse the previous weak trend and show an upward trend, mainly supported by risk aversion sentiment. The escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has led to an upward trend in the VIX index, and the capital market has started trading in safe haven sentiment in the precious metal market.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices.

However, as market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a long time continue to rise, the US dollar index has significantly risen, reducing the attractiveness of gold to investors. Previously, the market expected that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again within the year, and the door to rate hikes in December or later remained open, to some extent suppressing precious metal prices.

In the short term, it is expected that precious metal prices will continue to maintain a high level of sideways volatility, and there will still be upward momentum in November.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, on October 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4073.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4160 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 3950 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 3950 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4160 yuan/ton.

On October 27th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 467 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 474 US dollars per ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Supply side

Recently, two units with a total production capacity of 1.2 million tons have been restarted at the ethylene glycol supply end, and the units of Sanjiang Petrochemical, Shanxi Woneng, and Zhenhai Refining and Chemical have been restarted. The market operating rate is expected to rebound in the short term.

Port accumulation has slightly eased

This week, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China has slightly decreased. As of October 30, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China is 1.043 million tons, and the port inventory is still relatively high. The main inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still above 1 million tons, but the pressure on accumulated inventory in the early stage has been alleviated.

Future market forecast

After the decline in ethylene glycol prices in October, the current long short game has intensified. In the short term, due to the significant decline in the previous period, macroeconomic sentiment has rebounded in the near future, and ethylene glycol prices have stabilized. It is expected that the probability of maintaining a volatile sideways trend in the short term will increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic PTA market has slightly rebounded this week (October 23-27), with an average market price of 5875 yuan/ton in East China as of October 27, an increase of 0.42% compared to the beginning of the week.

In terms of PTA supply, the industry’s operating rate is 78%. The Zhuhai Ineos 1 # 110000 ton PTA plant was overhauled in mid October until the end of November, with a load of 80-90% for the 2 # 125000 ton PTA plant. In addition, Hengli’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant has been delayed in restarting and contract goods have been reduced. Next week, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton and Yadong Petrochemical’s 700000 ton PTA units are scheduled for maintenance in early November. There are currently no plans to restart new PTA devices, and the supply of PTA goods has decreased.

Recently, crude oil prices have fluctuated repeatedly due to the conflict between Palestine and Israel, as well as expectations of weak demand. On October 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $83.21 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at 87.05 yuan per barrel. Overall cost support has weakened.

The polyester load remains at a high level of nearly 90%, relatively strong. As the end of October approaches, terminals are gradually weakening, and the “Double Eleven” and Christmas promotion effects are limited, resulting in insufficient motivation to undertake new orders. At present, most weaving manufacturers have increased inventory pressure, coupled with weak new orders. The enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials has decreased, only maintaining just in demand and consuming more inventory of raw materials. This has caused a certain drag on the polyester market, and the prices of various polyester products have shown a slight weakening.

Business analysts believe that the recent reduction of contract goods by mainstream PTA suppliers has boosted the market and temporarily eased the supply-demand contradiction. However, due to weakened cost support and insufficient terminal demand, there is still downside risk in PTA prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 19th to 26th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 6962 yuan/ton to 6895 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.97%, a month on month decrease of 2.89%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.43%. The production enterprise orders and delivers goods with stable prices, and some factory prices are not high. In the case of poor demand, the overall delivery situation is average.

On the cost side, the market price of raw corn fluctuated slightly. Recently, imported corn has been arriving and being released, and inventory in southern ports has slightly increased. As the end of the month approaches, new grain from the north is about to arrive in Nangang one after another, and downstream feed enterprises still maintain a strategy of using and collecting as needed, resulting in weak market supply and demand. There are temporary bearish factors on the cost side of ethanol.

On the supply side, the majority of production enterprises in various regions park their facilities, and the operating rate of normally operating enterprises remains at 30-40%. A small number of enterprises have low inventory, while most enterprises have relatively high inventory. Shuntong Short Stop is about to resume. Hongzhan Huanan is recovering, and there is a possibility of Liaoyuan Jufeng starting up. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in October. Other chemical products require procurement. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish and the supply and demand are weak. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may be dominated by weak trends in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has stabilized, with spot prices of various brands falling and then trading sideways. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 11025 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -8.12% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The high load in the ABS industry in the early stage continued, resulting in abundant supply of goods on the site, a significant increase in inventory positions, and poor profitability of the enterprise, resulting in losses. After a week of forced load reduction, the domestic operating rate has decreased by about 6% to 80%, and the drag on the spot market by the supply side has decreased, resulting in a slight easing of supply pressure.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS has been relatively good recently, with the acrylonitrile market operating at a high level. The price of raw materials fluctuates, and the support for acrylonitrile is still acceptable; In addition, the construction of acrylonitrile units in the early stage slightly decreased, and the supply and demand side slightly supported, resulting in a high and firm price of acrylonitrile.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market rose strongly. The external market is relatively high, and there is an export profit window in China, boosting the market atmosphere. At the same time, temporary parking facilities have been installed in both East and South China, resulting in a significant reduction in market supply due to planned maintenance. Under the boost of fundamentals, prices of major production enterprises have increased.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has recently increased. The international oil price is at a high level, and the pure benzene market is fluctuating and consolidating. Cost support is good. Last week, styrene production decreased, inventory decreased, and market transactions were positive. The styrene market slightly rose.

In terms of demand: Recently, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have shown low enthusiasm for stocking. The preliminary inventory needs time to digest. After the ABS price fell, a portion of the just in need inventory was released, and the demand side was mainly focused on maintaining production, which did not provide enough support to the market.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was flat with two increases, providing reasonable support for the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of the petrochemical plant has dropped, and some supply pressures have eased. Poor demand side consumption. It is expected that the ABS market may remain weak and stable in the short term.