According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market fluctuated within a narrow range. From August 10th to 17th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2366 yuan/ton to 2355 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.46% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 2.06%, a month on month increase of 6.08%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.85%. The early maintenance equipment has gradually recovered, the industry operating rate has rebounded, and at the same time, port inventory is gradually accumulating, which is affected by supply side bearish factors. On the other hand, most downstream product companies are in a period of lucrative profits, and the industry’s operating rate is relatively strong. The supply and demand sides are in a game, and the methanol market has entered a stage of range fluctuations.

As of the close on August 17th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2360 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2391 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2341 yuan/ton. It closed at 2388 yuan/ton in the late trading session, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.13% compared to the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 1240599 lots, the position was 1132482 lots, and the daily increase was -11015.

On the cost side, recent coal prices have been sorted and operated, and some enterprise devices on the supply side have maintenance plans in the near future; With the basic end of agricultural demand on the demand side, the overall demand support is limited. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Shunda equipment may be restored, and acetic acid demand may increase; Downstream MTBE: Lihuayi has maintenance plans, and MTBE demand may decrease; There is formaldehyde below: the Lianyi device has slightly increased its burden, and the demand for formaldehyde may increase in a narrow range; Downstream chloride: Due to the shutdown of the Jiangsu Fuqiang unit, the demand for chloride has decreased; The demand for dimethyl ether may not change significantly. The demand side for methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.

On the supply side, the overall recovery is greater than the loss, leading to an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on August 16th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $279.00- $281.00 per ton, a decrease of $2.5 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 67.00-69.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 226.50-228.50 euros/ton, up 6.5 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, short-term cost support is limited, supply changes are not significant, and demand is expected to increase. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market will enter a period of fluctuation and consolidation.

Price trend

In the past month, the domestic EVA market has shown a positive trend, with spot prices rising in a stepwise manner. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 15th, the average factory price of EVA in China was 14000.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.14% month on month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Since mid July, the overall supply and demand situation in the raw material end of ethylene has been balanced, with low inventory and stable market conditions. Around the beginning of August, the cost side of petroleum naphtha strengthened due to the impact of the rise in crude oil. The superimposed market is approaching the traditional peak season, with expectations for increased consumption. Therefore, there are multiple positive factors in the current ethylene market, with strong prices operating;

In terms of vinyl acetate, it has also been boosted by the strength of crude oil, while the cost side is strong. In addition, the industry has been operating at a low level for more than a month, and the supply of goods in the calcium carbide method direction has been significantly diverted by polyvinyl alcohol enterprises, resulting in a profound pattern of tight supply on site. The market price of vinyl acetate has risen at a high level, and the confidence of the industry is strong. During the cycle, the market for EVA raw materials has both strengthened, increasing support for the EVA market.

On the supply side:

In the past month, the main pattern of operating rates in the EVA industry has been fluctuating and narrow. The resumption of production and maintenance of domestic EVA enterprises are mutually reinforcing. The overall operating rate of the enterprise increased from around 79% in mid July and then decreased. As of August 15th, the total load position of the domestic industry was about 75%, with an average load of about 81.72% within 30 days. In terms of production, there has been a decrease compared to the previous cycle, with a monthly production of approximately 169600 tons, and the market supply is still acceptable. Factory inventory pressure is average, and factory prices are generally quite high. Traders are following the trend. EVA suppliers’ support for spot goods is acceptable.

In terms of demand:

Recently, the stocking atmosphere in the domestic EVA market has maintained a pattern of mutual strength in the early stage, and there is differentiation in downstream market prices in different directions. The phased stocking of photovoltaic enterprises continues, and the consumption of photovoltaic materials continues to be optimistic. The sales are smooth, and they have maintained their position as the main downstream support for EVA in this cycle. On the other hand, the demand for foaming materials remains low. The follow-up of terminal enterprises lags behind, and the consumption of shoe materials and other aspects is still at the off-season level without improvement. Overall, transactions revolve around demand and trading is light. Downstream foaming enterprises tend to maintain production in their stocking operations, resulting in a heavy market wait-and-see atmosphere and resistance to high priced sources of goods. On the demand side, there is a strong and weak support, and photovoltaic materials have a significant impact on the EVA price market.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market has performed positively in the past month. The raw material market remains strong, increasing support for EVA spot sales. Downstream demand support is generally strong, boosting EVA spot prices. The industry load position is moderate, the supplier’s pricing is quite high, and the supply side has strong support for the market. In summary, there is a dual positive trend in the current EVA fundamentals, with a strong market trend.

In the future market, the current high spot price of EVA may weaken the willingness to receive goods on the market, or put some pressure on the momentum of the future market. At the same time, although the demand side is supported by photovoltaic materials, the decline in foam material consumption may smooth out some of the positive factors. It is expected that the short-term market may focus on sideways consolidation, and it is recommended to closely monitor the supply and demand situation on the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA market showed a slight recovery this week (August 7-11), with the average market price in East China as of August 11 at 5914 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% compared to the beginning of the week.

Under low processing costs, the recent unexpected maintenance of PTA devices has increased, resulting in reduced supply. As of August 11th, the industry’s operating rate is around 76%.

Crude oil fluctuates significantly, and concerns about supply tightening have driven oil prices to a nearly nine month high, supporting PTA costs. As of August 10th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.82 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $86.40 per barrel.

Downstream polyester production is still at a relatively high level within the year, maintaining around 90%, with a primary demand for PTA. The atmosphere in the terminal textile market has slightly warmed up, and some textile and clothing factories have high expectations for future raw material prices. They have gradually started the inquiry and sampling mode, and most weaving factories have a strong load. Currently, the weaving start-up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is over 60%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, cost support still exists, polyester has a low inventory and stable load. The current fundamental performance is still acceptable, and PTA prices will continue to strengthen. But in the future, the restart of PX and PTA devices will increase, leading to an increase in supply. The performance of stacked terminal orders is average, and the weaving process is generally stocked up until September. The willingness to replenish inventory at high prices is insufficient, and the expectation of polyester production, sales, and inventory turning weak has formed a certain drag on the PTA market, and the price rebound is limited.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region is stable. On August 7th, the average market price in Henan region was 7825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 0.32%.

quotations analysis

The price of cryolite has slightly decreased, and the manufacturer’s quotation has remained stable with little movement. The upstream construction of cryolite remains unchanged, and raw material prices have decreased. The pressure on production costs of cryolite has slightly weakened. Manufacturers maintain rational inventory and actively ship. Downstream, they follow up on the purchase of high cryolite as needed. Some manufacturers adjust their prices slightly based on their own shipment situation, and the cryolite market is negotiated for operation. As of August 7th, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market continues to remain stable, with an average market price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of August 7th, which is unchanged from the price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of August 1st. The current situation of the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises is maintained, with normal spot supply. Mining enterprises are facing safety and environmental requirements, making it difficult to improve the operation of fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and downstream enterprises have serious resistance to high priced raw materials, The price trend of fluorite is mainly weak and stable.

The downstream aluminum market is fluctuating and declining. On August 7th, the aluminum price was around 18506.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the price of 18596.67 yuan/ton on August 1st. In the off-season of downstream consumption, the operating rate is low, the overall demand is limited, the market trading atmosphere is average, and the situation of destocking is not ideal. The aluminum price trend is consolidating and declining, and there is insufficient support for cryolite.

Future Market Forecast

The start of raw material production is maintained, with acceptable upstream support. Cryolite enterprises maintain active shipments, while downstream parties follow up as needed. The overall market trading atmosphere is average, and there is a stalemate between supply and demand on the market. It is expected that the cryolite market will consolidate and operate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturer inventory in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2616 yuan/ton as of July 31st. On August 4th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2733 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 4.46%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3687 yuan/ton as of July 31st. On August 4th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3687 yuan/ton, and the market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

Ammonium prices rose this Monday, while ammonium prices remained stable. The price of raw material sulfur has increased, and cost support is positive. Due to the continuous increase in costs and the support of pending orders, most ammonium nitrate manufacturers have suspended their quotations and stopped receiving orders, leading to a continuous increase in ammonium nitrate prices. The supply of ammonium bicarbonate in the market is tight, with dealers being mainly reluctant to sell, resulting in tight supply and a strong market situation. As of August 4th, the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2800 yuan/ton, while the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 2750-2850 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3550-3650 yuan/ton, while the quotation for 57% diammonium in Shandong region is around 2800-2900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw material sulfur, the domestic sulfur price has increased slightly this week. The sulfur manufacturer’s device is operating normally, the market supply is stable, and the manufacturer is actively shipping. The demand for downstream phosphate fertilizer has increased, and the sulfur market has a positive attitude, with manufacturers showing an increasing willingness to negotiate prices. Downstream procurement is active, and enterprise shipments are smooth. The short-term sulfur price has significantly increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the ammonium phosphate market has shown a good trend in recent days, with manufacturers mainly waiting to place orders, and the current market supply is relatively low. Dealers have a clear reluctance to sell, and downstream demand has increased in the autumn. Under favorable factors, it is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate will rise slightly in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 4, 2023, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 12900 yuan/ton. Compared with July 31 (organic silicon DMC reference 13020 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.31-8.04), the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole showed a slight weak decline. At the beginning of the week, the organic silicon DMC market was operating steadily, with average downstream demand and a quiet trading atmosphere on the market. In the middle of the week, Shandong large factory lowered the price of organic silicon DMC by 200 yuan/ton, and the low price of organic silicon DMC on the market dropped to 12600 yuan/ton. Other factories and suppliers also slightly reduced prices with the large factory, The downward adjustment range is around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of August 4th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 12600-13200 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market is relatively light, with average downstream stocking and more negotiations for transactions. The supply and demand transmission is still relatively slow. The organic silicon DMC data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Price trend

In July, the domestic PA6 market strengthened, with many spot prices rising. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of August 1st, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 14000 yuan/ton, a decrease of+4.87% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the figure above that the price of Caprolactam market rose strongly last month. In terms of cost, due to the rise of crude oil, the price of pure benzene remained positive, and the support for Caprolactam continued to grow. The supply of Caprolactam is tight in the second half of the month, the downstream polymerization enterprises start steadily, and the procurement just needs support. It is expected that Caprolactam will continue to operate stably.

On the supply side:

In July, the load of PA6 production enterprises remained generally stable, with an average operating rate of around 74% in China. In the second half of the month, market supply began to gradually decrease, inventory positions decreased, supplier support for spot goods increased, and factory pricing increased.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has basically adjusted slightly within the month, and the overall load position is still stable. Stimulated by a decrease in supply and a strengthening of raw materials in the second half of the month, actual trading has improved. There is an atmosphere of speculation in the market, with buying up rather than falling. The overall atmosphere of stock preparation on the market has rebounded, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 chips is still acceptable.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market strengthened in July. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the production is stable and abundant, but the supply of goods is gradually being digested. In terms of demand, it is acceptable, and downstream stocking enthusiasm has improved. The price of Caprolactam strengthened, and the support of PA6 cost side increased. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to be strong in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate fluctuated slightly in July. On January 1, China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) Aluminium chlorohydrate market mainly reported about 1721 yuan/ton, and on December 31, the market mainly reported about 1718 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.15%; The highest price point for this month was 1725 yuan/ton on July 13th, and the lowest price was 1712 yuan/ton on July 10th, with a maximum amplitude of 0.73%. Recently, water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have had normal production, sufficient market inventory, and little improvement in downstream procurement demand, making it difficult to make actual transactions; The price of raw hydrochloric acid changed slightly this month. The periodic rise of hydrochloric acid in Henan, the main production area, led to a slight rise in the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate, but the duration was short. The monthly market of Aluminium chlorohydrate did not rise continuously.

As shown in the figure, at the beginning of the third quarter of 2023, the domestic market of Aluminium chlorohydrate showed a slight upward trend in July, especially in the first ten days of the year, but the market support in the middle and last ten days was weak and fell back near the mainstream price at the end of last month.

Raw Material Hydrochloric Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first rose and then fell in July, with the price rising from 173 yuan/ton to 179 yuan/ton, and then falling again to around 173.6 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, the price rise of hydrochloric acid in Henan, the main production area of water treatment in China, led to an increase in the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate. After all, the demand did not follow up significantly. In the later period, the price of hydrochloric acid fell, and the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate fell. The upstream support and downstream procurement willingness for hydrochloric acid are weak, and it is expected that the hydrochloric acid market may fluctuate slightly in mid to early August.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market fluctuated and fell in July: as of July 31st, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3678 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 14.39% compared to the average price of 4296 yuan/ton on July 1st. Due to market inventory exclusion and poor demand during the off-season, there is currently no positive factor supporting liquefied natural gas. There is a strong bearish sentiment in the industry, and liquid plants are often reducing prices. It is expected that domestic prices will be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the bidding results of raw gas.

Future forecast: The rising price of raw hydrochloric acid in this month has led to a slight increase in Aluminium chlorohydrate, but the market of fuel liquefied natural gas has fallen sharply, and Aluminium chlorohydrate has unstable support. On the supply side, China’s Aluminium chlorohydrate manufacturers are in normal production and have sufficient inventory; However, there has been no significant improvement on the demand side. As for the future market, the analysis believes that the Aluminium chlorohydrate market is expected to be mainly stable, supplemented by small shocks.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Cryolite in Henan is stable. On July 28, the average market price in Henan was 7850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on July 25, up 2.61% compared with the same period last year.

quotations analysis

The price of Cryolite is stable this week, and the manufacturer’s quotation is firm. The upstream of Cryolite starts at a low price, the price is high, and the raw material support continues. The production cost of Cryolite enterprises is high, the manufacturer’s inventory is rational, and the active shipment is dominant. The downstream side is more resistant to the high price, and the market purchase follows up as required, and the Cryolite market is negotiated and operated. As of July 28, the ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Shandong Province was 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Henan is 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market is operating smoothly, with an average market price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of July 28, which is unchanged from the price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of July 22. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises remains stable, and the spot supply is normal. Mining enterprises are facing safety and environmental requirements, making it difficult to improve the operation of fluorite mines. In addition, downstream procurement needs to follow up, and fluorite prices remain stable.

The downstream aluminum market is fluctuating and rising. On July 28th, the aluminum price was around 18343.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15% compared to the price of 18316.67 yuan/ton on July 22nd. Downstream consumption continues the off-season, with low operating rates and limited overall demand. Recently, the market trading atmosphere has been weak, and the situation of inventory removal has been average. The aluminum price trend has been consolidated and running.

Future Market Forecast

Raw material starts are low, upstream support continues, Cryolite enterprises have no pressure on inventory, maintain active shipment, downstream parties follow up as needed, the market trading atmosphere is fair, market supply and demand are relatively balanced, it is expected that Cryolite market will wait and see later, and the future market will specifically focus on the changes in manufacturers’ inventory.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 27th, the DBP price was 9263.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% compared to the price of 9087.50 yuan/ton on July 20th; The price has increased by 5.42% compared to 8787.50 yuan/ton on July 1st. Crude oil prices fluctuate and rise, DBP raw materials butanol and phthalic anhydride prices fluctuate and rise, plasticizer DBP costs increase, PVC growth slows down, plasticizer demand turns cold, and plasticizer DBP prices fluctuate and rise this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on July 27th was 9866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.42% compared to the price of 9633.33 yuan/ton on July 20th; Compared to 9350 yuan/ton on July 1st, it increased by 5.53%. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials increased, and the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 27th, the price of n-butanol was 7566.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11% compared to the price of 7483.33 yuan/ton on July 20th; Compared to July 1st, the price of n-butanol increased by 3.42% to 7316.67 yuan/ton. The supply of n-butanol has increased, while downstream demand news is flat. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm. In July, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and increased, and the demand for n-butanol has stabilized. The cost of plasticizers has increased, and the price of plasticizer DBP has fluctuated and increased in the future.

PVC prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the PVC product market analysis system of the Business Society, as of July 27th, the PVC quotation was 5691.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared to the fluctuating PVC price of 2698.33 yuan/ton on July 20th; Compared to July 1st, the price of PVC increased by 3.51% to 5505 yuan/ton. This week, PVC prices fluctuated and consolidated. In July, PVC prices fluctuated and increased, while crude oil prices fluctuated and increased. PVC costs also increased. The postponement of two policies in the “16 Financial Measures” helped promote the completion and delivery of real estate projects, and PVC demand is expected to rise. However, PVC prices have slightly declined this week, leading to a lack of enthusiasm for market procurement, weak downstream demand, and a weakened driving force for plasticizer cost increases.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the price of crude oil has increased, and the supply of butanol and octanol is tight. In July, the prices of isooctanol and n-butanol fluctuated and increased, while the prices of ortho benzene and phthalic anhydride have increased. The cost of plasticizer DBP products has increased, and the driving force for DBP growth has increased; The price increase of PVC has slowed down, the demand for PVC has cooled down, and the support for the increase in demand for plasticizers is insufficient. In the future, the cost of DBP has increased, and the support from rising demand is insufficient. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.