The new order price of plasticizer DOTP surged in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 5th, the price of DOTP was 12080 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 5.04% compared to December 1st, which was 11500 yuan/ton. Some plasticizer companies have raised their DOTP prices by nearly a thousand yuan, while the price of raw material isooctanol continues to rise, supporting costs. At the beginning of the month, the price of new DOTP orders surged.

The price of isooctanol continues to steadily rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol has been continuously rising since mid November. As of December 5th, the quotation for isooctanol is 11740 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.20% from the quotation of 11160 yuan/ton on November 11th. In November, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers increased, and large plasticizer factories actively purchased. The demand for rigid isooctanol increased, and isooctanol products showed a fluctuating upward trend. In the past three months, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has gradually recovered, and the supply of isooctanol has increased. With the continuous rise of isooctanol prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream plasticizer enterprises has declined under price pressure, and the supply and demand of isooctanol have been weak. In the future, the support for the rise of isooctanol has weakened, and the downward pressure has increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the high production of plasticizer DOTP leads to an increase in DOTP supply; With the increase in DOTP prices, DOTP profits have increased, and downstream real order bargaining space has increased. Downstream customers have a strong willingness to purchase at lower prices. The continuous rise in the price of raw material isooctanol supports a significant increase in DOTP prices. In the future, there is insufficient support for the price increase of isooctanol, the cost of raw materials stabilizes, the supply and demand of plasticizer DOTP are weak, and downstream customers have a strong willingness to purchase at lower prices. It is expected that the high price of DOP will fall in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8595.00 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8300.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.43%. The price has increased by 6.07% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has fluctuated slightly in the past month, with a significant decline in the market this week. International oil prices continue to decline, cost support is poor, downstream demand has not improved, styrene spot transactions are weak, and the market is fluctuating and falling.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week, and spot resource transactions were weak. There was insufficient buying gas on the market, and most transactions were made in distant months. Shandong refineries have weak willingness to hold goods and have significantly lowered prices to promote shipments. After the price drop, the market’s buying sentiment improved, and a large number of low-priced goods were purchased to deliver orders within the week, resulting in better transactions.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. The domestic PS market continues to decline, with a range of 80-100 yuan/ton. The significant decline in crude oil has driven down pure benzene and styrene, and the price of PS ordinary materials has also fallen, with a magnitude not as significant as upstream prices. Merchants mainly offer discounts for shipping, negotiate actual orders, and some transactions are made at low levels.

This week, the EPS market has fallen, with weakened upstream support and thin terminal profits. Buying follow-up is limited, and overall transactions are average. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market, with buying mainly in demand. The reference price for EPS ordinary materials in the South China region is around 9700 yuan/ton.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has experienced slight fluctuations, and the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS is poor, with weak support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has generally maintained its early stage, and supply pressure continues. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the supply-demand contradiction pattern of ABS market will be difficult to change in the short term, and may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

Recently, international crude oil prices have continued to decline, and the demand for styrene spot is still weak, with poor transactions. It is expected that the styrene market will experience short-term fluctuations and decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid in November first fell and then rose. As of November 30th, the price was 3225.00 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price of acetic acid increased by 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38%, and decreased by 1.75% year-on-year.

As of the end of the month, the price details of acetic acid market in various regions of China in November are as follows:

Region/ November 1st/ November 15th/ November 30th

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton

North China region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton

In November, the acetic acid market first fell and then rose, with price ranges fluctuating. At the beginning of the month, downstream demand was sluggish, and market transactions were limited. Coupled with the influence of buying up but not buying down sentiment, the price of acetic acid continued to decline in October. Later, with frequent failures of acetic acid plants and the release of news of enterprise load reduction, the utilization rate of on-site acetic acid production capacity decreased, and many manufacturers maintained low inventory operations. Supported by favorable supply conditions, the bullish intention of operators increased, and some manufacturers increased their acetic acid prices. In the later stage, the utilization rate of downstream production capacity improved, The demand for acetic acid has improved, and under the dual benefits, the price of acetic acid has stopped falling and rebounded.

The methanol market for raw materials fluctuated widely, with an average price of 2510 yuan/ton in the domestic market as of November 30th. Compared with the price of 2425 yuan/ton on November 1st, the overall increase for the month was 3.50%. In the first half of the month, some major production areas had newly added unplanned maintenance and load reduction devices, resulting in a decrease in regional supply and a strong increase in methanol prices; In the middle of the month, coal prices stopped falling and rebounded, providing some support for methanol prices. However, downstream purchasing willingness was average, cost transmission was limited, and methanol market fluctuations were consolidated; In the latter half of the year, natural gas exports were restricted, supply was reduced, and cost was favorable for the methanol market. At the same time, prices of some downstream products were rising, and supply was gradually replenished as the main source. The demand side was also positive, and methanol prices rebounded and rose. Methanol prices fluctuated and consolidated within the month.

The downstream acetic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in November, with a price of 5712.50 yuan/ton on November 30th, a decrease of 0.87% from the price of 5762.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After a brief shutdown of the acetic anhydride manufacturer’s operating load within the month, the device restarted and the load increased. The spot market supply of acetic anhydride was sufficient, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride was significant. The upstream acetic acid price did not fluctuate much, and the cost support for acetic acid was limited. The price of acetic anhydride was weak and fluctuated.

According to analysts from Business Society, the current operating load of acetic acid enterprises has decreased, manufacturers have low inventory, and there is a strong upward momentum in acetic acid prices. Downstream production capacity utilization is high, and there is good demand for acetic acid. Supply and demand support is positive. In addition, manufacturers have a clear intention to explore price increases, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will be strong and upward in the future. Specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average market price of acetic acid on November 30th was 3225 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57% compared to the price of 3175 yuan/ton on November 23rd, and an increase of 2.38% from the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market has been relatively strong, with frequent fluctuations in supplier equipment, unexpected failures in Anhui Huayi and Jiangsu Sopu acetic acid plants, low load operation of Guangxi acetic acid enterprises, reduced market supply, low inventory operation of manufacturers, and high downstream capacity utilization, resulting in good demand for acetic acid. As a result, the willingness of acetic acid enterprises to raise prices has increased, leading to an upward trend in market price consolidation. As of November 30th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the month are as follows:

Region/ November 23rd/ November 30th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ seventy-five

North China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ seventy-five

Shandong region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ fifty

Jiangsu region/ 3040 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ one hundred and sixty

Zhejiang region/ 3140 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ one hundred and sixty

The upstream raw material methanol market has risen strongly. As of November 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2510.83 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 6.13% compared to the price of 2365.83 yuan/ton on November 23rd. Due to restrictions on export production and reduced supply of natural gas, the cost side is favorable for the methanol market. In some regions, there has been an increase in equipment maintenance, and inventory pressure has slightly eased. At the same time, downstream product prices have risen, and supply has been gradually replenished, with good demand support. Under multiple favorable factors, the methanol market has rebounded and risen.

The downstream acetic anhydride market first fell and then rose. As of November 30th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5712.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% compared to the price of 5700.00 yuan/ton on November 23rd. The equipment of acetic anhydride manufacturers has started to restart, the load has increased, and the supply of acetic anhydride spot market is sufficient. The downward pressure on acetic anhydride is significant, and the upstream acetic acid price has increased. The cost support for acetic anhydride has increased, and the price of acetic anhydride has stopped falling and rebounded.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the operating load of acetic acid has decreased, manufacturers are operating at a low level of inventory, and there is a strong upward momentum. The downstream capacity utilization rate is high, and the demand for acetic acid is good. The market supply and demand support is good, and it is expected that acetic acid will operate stronger in the short term. In the future, specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment situation.

In November, the price of ethylene oxide decreased by 5.88%. According to data from Business Society, as of November 28th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6400 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6400 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6400-6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in Northeast China is 6250 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6500 yuan/ton.

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer is generally affected by terminal demand, but the recent demand is weak, which generally supports the price of ethylene oxide.

Raw material end

The price of raw material ethylene has begun to show a weak market consolidation, and the cost of ethylene oxide is generally supported. On November 27th, the central parity rate (CFR) for Northeast Asia Ethylene Gold was $861 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton from the central parity rate of $881 per ton at the beginning of the month (November 1st).

The price of ethylene oxide may remain weakly stable in November

Short term crude oil decline, weak and stable ethylene prices, and weak cost side of ethylene oxide; The average demand for downstream products has led to a recent decline in the price of ethylene oxide. However, as profits expand towards negative values, there is an expectation of a decrease in the operating rate of ethylene oxide, and the downward space gradually narrows. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain weak and stable in the short term.

Price trend

In late November, the domestic ABS market continued to be weak, with spot prices of various brands consolidating and operating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 27th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11137.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.11% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: Recently, the ABS industry has maintained a high load, with a domestic operating rate of around 75% as of the 27th, which is a narrow decrease compared to the previous period. The stable production of the enterprise, coupled with the previous production of the new equipment of Yinglishi Benling, has led to a steady increase in inventory at present. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the company’s loss situation continues. The supply pressure is relatively high, and there is little improvement in the dragging effect of the supply side on the spot market.

In terms of raw materials: In late November, the three upstream ABS materials showed mixed fluctuations, with the acrylonitrile market showing an upward trend. The domestic production capacity loss is relatively large, and at the same time, some devices have delayed resumption of work, leading to a tightening of market supply and increased support from the supply side. However, downstream acceptance after the rise is poor, and it is expected that the increase in acrylonitrile may be limited.

The domestic butadiene market has recently recovered after a decline. In the early stage, there was equipment maintenance in the northern region, causing a contraction in the market’s spot supply and a rebound in merchant quotations. Downstream products, including ABS, have shown weak market performance and weak demand, smoothing out favorable maintenance. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will operate sideways.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene gradually declined in late November. The cost support mainly comes from ethylene, and downstream demand is not strong. Although the inventory position is not high, the main ports have concentrated arrivals. The situation of empty space in the venue is complicated, and it is expected that styrene will operate in a volatile manner in the future.

In terms of demand: Downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, showed average stocking enthusiasm in late this month, with an overall focus on digesting existing inventory. The operation of enterprises tends to maintain production, making it difficult for demand to increase, and the impact on price trends is not significant.

Future Market Forecast

In late November, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was mixed, and overall support for the cost side of ABS was average. The petrochemical plant has maintained its early stage of operation, and supply pressure continues. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term and may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 24th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 7040 yuan/ton, which is 0.56% lower than the reference average price of 7080 yuan/ton on November 20th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 24th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6883 yuan/ton, which is 6900 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on November 20th. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price decreased by 0.24%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has slightly decreased this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support for thermal phosphoric acid is insufficient. The price of raw material phosphate ore has increased, and the cost of wet process phosphoric acid still has support. At present, the operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, downstream purchases are made on demand, there are fewer new orders in the market, and on-site trading is poor. As of November 24th, the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7100 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7400 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6250-7600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has shown a steady upward trend this week, with the focus of the phosphate ore market constantly moving towards the high-end. Many domestic mining enterprises, including those in Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi, have raised the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock, with a cumulative increase of about 50-90 yuan/ton for 30% grade phosphate rock within the month. The supply of low-priced goods in phosphate ore yards is gradually decreasing, and the price difference between high and low prices is narrowing. As of November 24th, the domestic 30% grade phosphate ore market price is referenced around 1000-1100 yuan/ton, while the high-end price is referenced around 1150 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of yellow phosphorus continued to decline slightly, and the overall market trading situation was relatively light. Downstream discounted procurement, some yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. The center of gravity of the on exchange market has slightly declined, and downstream purchases are mostly cautious, with limited new orders and a focus on demand. The market on both sides of supply and demand is relatively deadlocked, with enterprises mainly focusing on price support. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 25700-26000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been weakening recently. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is poor, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Coupled with weak downstream demand, the industry holds a bearish sentiment. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of acetic acid on November 19th was 3150 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 3150 yuan/ton on November 13th, and decreased by 11.89% compared to the previous month.

During the week, the acetic acid market remained stable on the sidelines, with average downstream demand. Purchasing in the market followed up on demand, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. Acetic acid companies maintained rational inventory and actively shipped, resulting in low overall sales pressure and a strong market price. As of November 17th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the month were as follows:

Region/ November 13th/ November 17th/ Up and down

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ -75

Zhejiang region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ -75

The upstream raw material methanol market first rose and then fell. As of November 19, the average price in the domestic market was 2490.00 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.19% compared to the price of 2460.83 yuan/ton on November 13. The coal price has rebounded from a decline, and the macro economy is improving, providing some support for methanol prices. Enterprises and holders have strong quotations, but downstream delivery willingness is average, delivery prices are weak, cost transmission is limited, and the methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly. As of November 19, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5762.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the price of 5725.00 yuan/ton on November 13. The upstream acetic acid prices are mainly high, while the cost support for acetic anhydride still exists. The acetic anhydride market is under construction, with a decrease in spot supply and an increase in upward momentum. The prices of acetic anhydride manufacturers have increased.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the overall utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream market is weak, the purchasing enthusiasm is average, the trading atmosphere is light, and buyers are mainly bearish. From the perspective of manufacturers, there is currently no pressure on inventory and they maintain a positive shipping attitude. Many factories have a high price mentality, and the market supply and demand are in a game. There is a lack of effective benefits in the future market, and it is expected that acetic acid will remain stagnant and sorted out in the short term, Pay specific attention to downstream replenishment in the future.

Price trend

In mid November, the domestic ABS market continued to exhibit a negative pattern, with spot prices of various brands generally decreasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 20th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11062 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -0.56% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the recent high load in the ABS industry has continued. As of the 20th, the domestic operating rate has increased by about 3% to 75% compared to the previous ten days. The production of the enterprise is stable, and Ineos Benzene has a new device put into operation. The total production is increasing in the middle of the year, and the inventory position is on the high side. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the profitability of the enterprise is poor. The drag on the spot market by the supply side has expanded, resulting in high supply pressure.

In terms of raw materials: In mid November, the three upstream ABS materials showed mixed ups and downs, with the acrylonitrile market showing a sideways trend after rising. Although the demand level is average, the expansion of domestic production capacity losses in the early stage, coupled with the delayed resumption of some devices, has reduced market supply and strengthened supply side support. Acrylonitrile Lido guidance still exists, and the price is firm.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been mainly flat. In the northern region, there is equipment maintenance, and port inventory has slightly decreased. There is some support for spot supply, and the performance of merchants’ quotations is strong. The external market performance is weak, and the downstream product market performance is weak. The fundamentals of the future market lack positive support, and it is expected that the domestic butadiene market may turn weak.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fluctuated in mid November. The international crude oil price continues to weaken, and the rise of pure benzene market is hindered. While cost support has not been realized, downstream demand is also not strong. However, the overall inventory position of styrene is still at a low level, and it is expected that the decline in the future market may fluctuate slightly.

In terms of demand: In the middle of this month, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have low stocking enthusiasm, and overall focus is on digesting existing inventory. The operation of enterprises tends to maintain production, making it difficult for demand to increase, causing a drag on price trends.

Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was mixed, and overall support for the cost side of ABS was average. The petrochemical plant has maintained its early stage of operation, and supply pressure continues. Demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term, or it will maintain a weak consolidation market.