According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic TDI price stabilized first and then increased in February. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 17000 yuan/ton. On February 29th, the TDI price was 17500 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton within the month, with an overall increase of 2.94%.

The TDI market showed a strong upward trend in February. Before the holiday, multiple sets of TDI devices in the factory were reduced in load, and spot filling was slow. The TDI market was mainly bullish, while the downstream pre holiday stocking atmosphere was average. The market trading atmosphere was weak, and traders were conflicted. TDI quotations remained stable; After the holiday, news of TDI price increases, overseas device failures, and maintenance plans for TDI devices in large factories in northern China were released. Subsequently, TDI prices in Shanghai were closed and orders were temporarily not accepted until the end of the month when BASF and Wanhua Chemical were listed for a significant increase in March. Market positive news was stacked layer by layer, and the trading market followed the guidance of the news. TDI prices continued to rise.

The upstream toluene market showed a strong upward trend in February. On February 29th, the price was at 7210 yuan/ton, an increase of 330 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month’s price of 6880 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.80%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; However, the continued increase in port inventories has brought resistance to the upward trend of toluene.

TDI data analyst from Business Society analyzed that the current domestic TDI spot filling is still slow, and the supplier market is mainly strong. Considering the maintenance of the Wanhua plant in Fujian in March, the market supply of goods may tighten, and prices may increase. However, the downstream trading of terminals is weak, and market demand is lower than expected. Downstream procurement of TDI is limited. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the TDI market will remain stagnant and operate in March. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

High level fluctuations in ethylene glycol prices in February

The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a high level in February. According to data from Business Society, as of February 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% from the beginning of the month (February 1st) at 4656.67 yuan/ton.

On a monthly basis, the price of ethylene glycol ends the upward trend caused by the combination of overseas device news factors and continuous inventory depletion in December 2023.

Overview of February Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

During the Spring Festival, multiple sets of oil production systems were restarted, with Yankuang resuming and Shaanxi Coal inspecting one line. After the holiday, the supply of ethylene glycol continued to rise, and the operation of the equipment rebounded. The upward trend of ethylene glycol prices in February was interrupted. From the inventory data, the seasonal accumulation effect of ethylene glycol is not significant. As of February 29th, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China was 766900 tons, which is only an increase of 16000 tons compared to the 782900 tons on January 29th. The downward space for ethylene glycol prices is limited, and the long short game intensifies.

Factors affecting the price of ethylene glycol in March

Domestic supply side: A total of 2.1 million tons of coal chemical plant maintenance plan.

Overseas imports: Imports were not high from February to March, and with the restart of overseas facilities, there is pressure for imports to rebound after April. The overseas import shipment plan for March may gradually increase, and it is expected that imports will gradually increase. However, in terms of the delivery cycle, it is mostly reflected in the middle and late stages

Downstream demand may increase overall as the textile industry fully resumes production. However, based on the centralized stocking of downstream manufacturers before the year, downstream users may mainly rely on rigid stocking in the first half of March. In the second half of the month, demand will observe the situation of new orders. Recently, the average number of terminal weaving orders is 9.52 days, a decrease of 0.22 days from last week.

Estimated price of ethylene glycol in March

In March, the overall supply of domestic ethylene glycol was tight and balanced, and there may be import replenishment in the later period. In the short term, the downward space of ethylene glycol prices is limited, with mainly horizontal fluctuations. From the trend, the price of ethylene glycol in March may be strong in the front and weak in the back.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 880 yuan/ton on February 1st, and 903 yuan/ton on February 28th. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 2.65% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate has increased this month. In the first half of February, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price slightly decreased. The inquiries in the ammonium sulfate market have decreased, and on-site trading has been average. Affected by snowfall in some parts of China, transportation is not smooth. In the second half of February, the domestic market price of ammonium sulfate increased. Market inquiries have increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. Ammonium sulfate manufacturers mainly raise prices, while distributors are actively shipping, and the market has a strong bullish mentality. At the end of the month, prices slightly declined. As of February 28th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 860 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 930-960 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from December 4, 2023 to February 19, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle has seen mixed ups and downs. There was a significant increase in February, with the largest increase being 2.64% in the week of February 19th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst from Business Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been consolidating recently. Downstream demand has weakened, with primary procurement for essential needs, and market transactions are still acceptable. It is expected that the short-term trend of ammonium sulfate market will be mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of cryolite in Henan remained stable this week. On February 26th, the average market price in Henan was 7625 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7625 yuan/ton on February 19th, and remains unchanged from the beginning of the month.

This week, the ice crystal market has been operating steadily, and enterprise prices have remained unchanged. The price trend of upstream raw materials is temporarily stable, providing stable support for the cryolite market. However, the difficulty of starting production in upstream fluorite mines has increased, and spot prices continue to be tight. The overall price is still at a relatively high level in the fluorite industry, and there is still some pressure on the cost of cryolite. Most cryolite manufacturers have firm quotes, while downstream market purchases follow up as needed. The market mentality is cautious, and the cryolite market is watching and operating. As of February 26th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8200 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 500 yuan/ton within the range.

The upstream fluorite market remained stable, with an average market price of 3343.75 yuan/ton on February 26, which is unchanged from the price of 3343.75 yuan/ton on February 19. After the holiday, the game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. Follow up on demand when entering the market. Under the supply-demand game, the price trend of fluorite is mainly stable.

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw materials are tight, cost support still exists, and enterprise quotations are mainly strong. Downstream parties have resistance to high prices, and purchasing in the market follows up as needed. There is a certain sales pressure in the ice crystal market, and ice crystal manufacturers are hesitant. Under the influence of comprehensive cost pressure, the short-term ice crystal market may consolidate and operate. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

This week, plasticizer DOTP stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the price of DOTP was 11875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% compared to February 19th, which was 11912.50 yuan/ton; Compared to last weekend’s February 25th, the price of DOTP stopped falling and rose by 0.42% at 11825 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has stopped falling and increased, costs have risen, plasticizer manufacturers have resumed production, DOTP supply has increased, downstream production has risen, plasticizer demand has rebounded, and DOTP prices have stopped falling and increased after the holiday.

Isooctanol prices stop falling and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the price of isooctanol was 12437.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.10% compared to the price of isooctanol on February 19th last week, which was 12425 yuan/ton; Compared to last weekend, the price of 12400 yuan/ton has stopped falling and increased by 0.30%. After the holiday, the slow recovery of isooctanol, coupled with the slow increase in downstream customer production, has led to a rebound in demand for isooctanol, and the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and risen.

PVC prices fluctuate and rise after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the PVC quotation was 5592 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.47% compared to the PVC quotation of 5566 yuan/ton on February 19th last week. After the holiday, the PVC market rebounded, PVC prices fluctuated and rose, and the demand for plasticizers rebounded.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that after the holiday, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and risen, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP has stopped falling and rising; The PVC market has rebounded, and the demand for plasticizers has increased. In the future, as the cost of plasticizers increases and demand rebounds, it is expected that DOTP prices will stop falling and rise.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic caprolactam on February 1st was 13735 yuan/ton, and on February 7th, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 13775 yuan/ton. This week, the price of caprolactam increased by 0.29%.

quotations analysis

The market price of caprolactam has increased this week. This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. Some caprolactam enterprises have reduced their load operation, resulting in a decrease in market supply. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with fewer new orders in the pre holiday market. As of February 7th, the settlement price for Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam this week is 14150 yuan/ton. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has increased this week. As of February 7th, the reference price for domestic pure benzene is around 8192 yuan/ton. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 8300 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions increased by 450 yuan/ton simultaneously).

The downstream PA6 market remained stable this week. Enterprise owners supply old customers with stable shipping prices. As of February 7th, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 14775 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the caprolactam market has been steadily rising recently due to favorable factors such as rising costs and reduced supply. It is expected that the market for caprolactam will remain strong in the short term, with prices mainly consolidating and operating.

Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in January

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, on January 31st, the cobalt price was 217600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.49% compared to the cobalt price of 220900 yuan/ton on January 1st; On February 5th, the cobalt price was 217500 yuan/ton, which was weak and stable compared to January 31st. In January, cobalt prices continued to decline, but as the year-end approached, cobalt prices weakened and stabilized in February.

MB Cobalt Price Stabilizes

From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that since January, the price of MB cobalt has remained relatively stable, with alloy grade cobalt prices consolidating strongly, standard grade cobalt prices stabilizing weakly, and the overall cobalt price market fluctuating and stabilizing. The domestic cobalt market lacks positive momentum.

Import volume of cobalt raw materials

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in December was 1.57 metal tons, and the cumulative import volume in 2023 was 11.95 metal tons. The import volume of cobalt raw materials has significantly increased, and the supply of cobalt in the market has increased. The demand for cobalt in the market is temporarily stable, and there is significant pressure on the price of cobalt to decline; As the year-end approaches, there is a significant pressure on inventory due to poor shipments, which limits the production enthusiasm of enterprises. Some cobalt salt manufacturers have taken early holidays to suspend production and maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in cobalt market supply. As the year-end approaches, logistics transportation is suspended, and the import of cobalt raw materials in January has declined, exacerbating supply shortages and weakening the cobalt market supply.

Weakening demand in cobalt market

According to a report by market research firm Canalys, the global smartphone market grew by 8% in the fourth quarter of 2023, reaching 320 million units. Ending seven consecutive quarters of decline. In 2023, the total global shipment of smartphones was 1.1 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The demand for 3C electronic products in the domestic consumer market has not rebounded, but the sales of mobile phones have resumed growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. There is some positive demand in the cobalt market, but the overall positive trend is limited.

The first quarter of new energy vehicles is a traditional off-season, approaching the end of the year. Battery factories and upstream raw material manufacturers have gradually reduced production and stopped production, leading to a decline in corporate procurement enthusiasm and a cold demand in the cobalt market.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, transportation is restricted as the year-end approaches, leading to a decrease in cobalt raw material imports and a weakening of cobalt market supply; The first quarter is the traditional off-season for new energy vehicles, and the demand for cobalt in the market is weak. In January, the supply and demand of cobalt in the market were weak, and the upward support for the cobalt market was insufficient. The downward pressure still exists, and cobalt prices have fluctuated and fallen. The international market cobalt prices have fluctuated and consolidated, while the domestic cobalt market is bearish. It is expected that cobalt prices will consolidate at a low level in the future.

January plasticizer DBP price fluctuates and consolidates

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 4th, the DBP price was 9775 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the DBP price of 9775 yuan/ton on January 31st; The DBP price fluctuated and increased by 0.26% compared to January 1st at 9750 yuan/ton. In January, the raw material n-butanol was consolidating at a high level, while the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. DBP cost support still exists, coupled with stable operating rates of DBP enterprises and average downstream procurement enthusiasm, DBP prices were consolidating at a high level.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 4th, the price of isooctanol was 12350 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the isooctanol price of 12350 yuan/ton on January 31st, and fluctuated and fell by 4.63% compared to the isooctanol price of 12925 yuan/ton on January 1st. At the beginning of the month, the production of isooctanol resumed, and with pre holiday stocking, the price of isooctanol stabilized at a high level in the first and second half of the month. With the end of stocking before the Spring Festival, and with isooctanol manufacturers offering discounts for shipments, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, with insufficient cost support and insufficient support for DBP price increases.

High level consolidation of n-butanol prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 4th, the price of n-butanol was 8766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% compared to January 31st, when the price of n-butanol was 8816.67 yuan/ton; Compared to January 1st, the price of n-butanol increased by 0.77% to 8700 yuan/ton. Part of the facilities in the n-butanol plant have resumed production, and downstream enterprises are stocking up. As the Spring Festival approaches, the production of n-butanol enterprises has decreased. In addition, the pre holiday demand has declined, and the price of n-butanol has stabilized at a high level in January; DBP cost support still exists.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, n-butanol remained stable at a high level in January, while isooctanol prices fluctuated and fell. DBP raw material cost support still exists, and DBP prices remained stable at a high level in January. In the future, cost support still exists, with a decrease in the production of plasticizer DBP, a decline in demand, weak supply and demand, and cost support. It is expected that DBP prices will consolidate strongly in the future.

This week (1.29-2.2), the market for butyl acetate remained weak and stable, mainly due to weak supply and demand. The price of butyl acetate in the market did not improve this week, continuing the previous week’s decline, and the market has been hovering at a low level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 0.7%. The cost side was affected by the decline of acetic acid this week, the weak impact of n-butanol, and the lack of favorable market conditions. The supply and demand side maintained a weak balance, which constrained the price of butyl ester to break out of the independent market.

Market analysis: Most of the quotes from major manufacturers remained stable this week, with some manufacturers slightly lowering their prices, but not significantly, around 50 yuan. The operating rate of enterprises is low, and the supply and demand remain relatively balanced. The price of raw material acetic acid continues to rebound. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the weekly decline is 1.5%, indicating an overall bearish cost situation. More importantly, due to the weak supply and demand side, the price of butyl ester has not emerged from the haze. Downstream procurement is more on demand, and manufacturers are more on the go, making it difficult to increase transaction volume. However, the operating rate of the butyl acetate industry remains low, generally below 40%, and the price increase from manufacturers also has a boosting effect. Limited supply also supports prices.

Market forecast: It is expected that the butyl acetate market will maintain a range adjustment in the near future, and prices may remain rigid and stable due to the impact of low plant operation. It is recommended to pay attention to the production status of raw material acetic acid, n-butanol, and butyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 7500-7800 yuan/ton.

The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 31st, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13% from the price of aluminum fluoride on January 1st, which was 10575 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials have fallen, the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased. In January, the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell.

Reduced raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the price of fluorite was 3343.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.31% compared to the price of 3531.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. In recent times, it has been difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, with some mines shutting down and undergoing safety inspections. As the Spring Festival approaches, the number of holiday enterprises is gradually increasing. Downstream enterprises have poor purchasing sentiment, and the game between upstream and downstream is intensifying. The price of fluorite has fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the quoted price of hydrofluoric acid was 10083.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.72% compared to the quoted price of 10583.33 yuan/ton on January 1st. Some hydrofluoric acid plants are still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low, and the order situation for hydrofluoric acid is average. The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased.

Reduced procurement by electrolytic aluminum manufacturers

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 31, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 18980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.13% compared to the aluminum price of 19563.33 yuan/ton on January 1. Aluminum prices have almost unilaterally declined in the first half of the year. As the holiday approaches, downstream demand for stocking aluminum ingots has slightly rebounded, and aluminum ingot prices have briefly risen. Overall, aluminum ingot demand is weak during the off-season, and demand for aluminum fluoride is weak.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry, the prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fallen, leading to a decrease in the cost of aluminum fluoride. In addition, the downstream electrolytic aluminum off-season has resulted in weak aluminum fluoride procurement and a decrease in demand for aluminum fluoride. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride will decrease, and the demand will decrease. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and fall in the future.