The price of aluminum fluoride has risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 20th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10050 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% from the price of aluminum fluoride on March 10th, which was 9975 yuan/ton. This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises started at a low level, and the supply of aluminum fluoride remained stable. Downstream Yunnan electrolytic aluminum resumed production, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was still acceptable, leading to an increase in aluminum fluoride prices.

Yunnan electrolytic aluminum resumption of production

Recently, the amount of electricity transmitted from outside Yunnan Province has decreased, and the supply of wind, solar and other electricity within the province has been relatively good, resulting in surplus electricity within the province. The Yunnan Provincial Government and relevant departments encourage industrial electricity consumption. After a special meeting within the province, it has been decided that the province will release 800000 kilowatts of load electricity for the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises within the province in the near future, equivalent to an annual production capacity of about 520000 tons of electrolytic aluminum. The production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, and the demand for aluminum fluoride has increased, providing greater support for the rise in aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry, in terms of raw materials, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid are temporarily stable, while the cost of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable; In terms of demand, Yunnan’s resumption of electrolytic aluminum production has led to an increase in the number of electrolytic aluminum enterprises operating, an increase in demand for aluminum fluoride, and increased support for the rise in aluminum fluoride. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable, and demand is increasing. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Recently, the isobutanol market has declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 19th, the average price of isobutanol enterprises was 8375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% compared to March 14th (isobutanol reference 8387.50 yuan/ton), and a decrease of 1.76% compared to the beginning of the month.

During this cycle, cost support has been weak, with high supply side inventory and downstream consumption of raw materials. The enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is not high, with only small orders requiring immediate follow-up. The market transaction atmosphere is flat, with holders offering discounts for shipments. In addition, the decline in related product n-butanol has caused a loosening of the focus of negotiations in the isobutanol market. On the 19th, the reference price for negotiations in the East China isobutanol market was around 7750-7800 yuan/ton.

Upstream propylene: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of propylene on March 18th was 6936.60, an increase of 0.96% compared to March 1st (6870.75). Recently, propylene prices have adjusted narrowly, providing moderate support for the isobutanol market.

Upstream isobutyraldehyde: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, on March 18th, the reference price of isobutyraldehyde was 8766.67, a decrease of 1.31% compared to March 1st (8883.33). In recent times, due to insufficient cost support, the price of isobutyraldehyde has fallen. The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late March may mainly fluctuate and decline, which may weaken support for the isobutyl alcohol market.

Business Society isobutanol analysts believe that short-term fundamental support is limited, and holders are actively shipping. It is expected that the isobutanol market may operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

List of precious metal prices in March

This week, gold prices have been trading sideways at high levels. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 15, 2024, the spot market price of gold was 505.87 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.23% compared to the pre holiday (March 8) spot market price of 504.72 yuan/gram, and a total increase of 5.01% for the month.

Silver prices have risen significantly this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average price of silver in the market on March 15, 2024 was 6279.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.10% compared to the average price of silver on March 8, which was 5797 yuan/kg, and a total increase of 6.43% for the month.

From November 2022 to early February 2023, precious metal prices significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US banking crisis, precious metal prices once again entered a period of skyrocketing. Silver prices began to fall in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices hit a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices became stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high level correction. In October, due to geopolitical factors, the risk aversion sentiment rose and continued to rise. In early November, the high range was weak and fluctuated horizontally. At the end of the month, precious metal prices resumed, and silver saw a stronger monthly increase than gold. Silver prices slightly declined in December, while gold prices remained relatively strong. From January to February 2024, precious metal gold and silver fluctuated horizontally at high levels; In March, precious metals such as gold and silver rose significantly simultaneously.

Future Market Forecast

The dominant tone of precious metals remains unchanged. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle is gradually coming to an end and entering a rate cut cycle, which logically favors interest free assets such as precious metals. Although the expectation of immediate interest rate cuts in the short term has weakened, the direction of the cycle remains unchanged. Short term precious metals continue to be affected by inflation data, and long-term support from expected interest rate cuts is still expected. The recent geopolitical situation remains tense, with central banks around the world continuing to purchase gold. Coupled with the possibility of the US banking crisis spreading, the US dollar index and US bond yields are expected to show a weak trend, and it is expected that short-term precious metal prices will remain high with a high probability of sideways fluctuations.

Zinc prices continue to rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 14th, the zinc price was 21434 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.12% compared to the zinc price of 20586 yuan/ton on March 1st. The Luoping Zinc Electric Fule Lead Zinc Mine has ceased production, and many zinc smelters in China have plans to reduce production through maintenance. The supply of zinc in the market has decreased, and domestic environmental pressure continues. Downstream purchasing willingness is average, and downstream demand is insufficient. The decrease in supply, combined with poor demand, has led to a favorable zinc market and a continuous rise in zinc prices.

Luoping Zinc Power: Fule Lead Zinc Mine Stopped Production

Luoping Zinc Electric announced that on March 7, 2024, the company received a production shutdown notice from the Luoping County Emergency Management Bureau. According to the production suspension notice, the company’s Fule Lead Zinc Mine will cease all production activities from today onwards. In addition to the shutdown of Fule Lead Zinc Mine, other mines of Luoping Zinc Power are also in a state of shutdown. Industry insiders have pointed out that due to the increasingly strict regulatory environment, the resumption of production at the Luoping Zinc Electricity Mine may take more than a year for the relevant mines to complete. In addition to Luoping Zinc Power, there are plans for smelter maintenance and production reduction in regions such as Hunan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Liaoning, and Gansu, which are expected to affect a reduction of nearly 30000 tons. Zinc smelters have reduced production and increased supply, leading to an increase in zinc supply in the market.

Environmental impact, poor downstream procurement

During the Two Sessions, environmental protection in the north has imposed production restrictions, and galvanized processing enterprises have reduced production significantly. The current production restrictions have not yet ended, and the consumer recovery is not as expected. Downstream sentiment towards accepting goods is not good, and there is no significant improvement in spot trading. The downstream production of zinc in the Tianjin market is limited by environmental protection, and the order volume is relatively poor, resulting in insufficient willingness to purchase zinc ingots; The transaction volume of zinc ingots in the Foshan market is also very low. Overall, the environmental impact has led to poor downstream production of zinc and lower than expected demand in the zinc market.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, in terms of supply, domestic zinc smelters have recently reduced production significantly, leading to a decrease in zinc supply in the market; The Huoshaoyun lead-zinc mine in Xinjiang is expected to be put into operation in the future, while the northern zinc mine is expected to resume production in the second quarter. The short-term supply of zinc is expected to decrease, while the long-term supply of zinc is expected to increase. The surplus supply of zinc in the market remains. In terms of demand, during the two sessions, due to environmental restrictions, downstream production of zinc was poor, and the demand for zinc in the market was lower than expected; In the future, downstream zinc enterprises are gradually resuming production, and the demand for zinc in the market is slowly recovering. However, due to poor macroeconomic performance, the growth of zinc demand is difficult to meet expectations. Overall, in the short term, the supply and demand of zinc in the market have decreased and the performance is average, with zinc prices expected to rise slightly. In the long run, the recovery of excess supply and demand in the zinc market is difficult to meet expectations, and it is expected that the zinc market will consolidate at a low level in the future.

Plasticizer DOTP drops significantly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 12th, the price of DOTP was 11337.50 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 4.53% compared to March 1st, which was 11875 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has significantly decreased, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, the price of PTA has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased; Plasticizer manufacturers are operating steadily, DOTP supply is sufficient, downstream PVC production is temporarily stable at a low level, plasticizer demand is poor, plasticizer support is insufficient, and DOTP prices have dropped significantly this week.

The price of isooctanol has dropped significantly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 12th, the price of isooctanol was 11875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.43% from the price of isooctanol on March 1st, which was 12425 yuan/ton. This week, the production of isooctanol has been stable, and the supply of isooctanol has increased; The shipment situation of iso octanol factories is poor, downstream manufacturers purchase at low prices, downstream demand is weak, and the price of iso octanol fluctuates and falls.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 12th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from the price of 7625 yuan/ton on March 1st. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride. The price of phthalic anhydride has fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP has decreased.

PVC prices rise first and then fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 12th, the PVC quotation was 5596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from the PVC price of 5608 yuan/ton on March 1st; Compared to the price of 5632 yuan/ton on March 6th, the price of PVC has decreased by 0.64%. The trading situation in the PVC market is average, with futures prices falling, affecting the confidence of the spot market. Downstream procurement is more cautious, PVC spot market prices are falling, PVC demand is weak, and high priced goods are still difficult to trade. PVC prices have fluctuated and fallen, PVC manufacturers have temporarily stabilized at low operating levels, downstream demand is poor, PVC production is low, and demand for plasticizer DOTP is weak.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol has dropped significantly, the prices of phthalic anhydride and PTA have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP has decreased; The production of plasticizer DOTP is stable, and the supply of plasticizer DOTP is sufficient; The PVC market is weak, and the demand for plasticizer DOTP is weak. In the future, the cost of plasticizer DOTP has decreased, downstream demand is weak, and it is expected that DOTP prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

The price of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 11th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 9975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.72% from the price of aluminum fluoride on March 1st, which was 10150 yuan/ton. This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises have started production steadily, with sufficient supply of aluminum fluoride. Downstream electrolytic aluminum production has remained stable, while downstream demand for aluminum fluoride remains weak. As a result, aluminum fluoride prices have fallen this week.

There is an upward trend in raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 11th, the price of fluorite was 3356.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% compared to the price of 3350 yuan/ton on March 1st. The operation of fluorite mines has been poor, and the supply of fluorite remains tight. The price support for fluorite still exists, and emerging downstream markets such as new energy have rebounded. With the continuous resumption of work and production of fluorite, the supply of fluorite has increased. The market for hydrofluoric acid, refrigerants, and other products has not improved, and the support for the rise in fluorite prices is insufficient.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 11th, the quotation for hydrofluoric acid was 9966.67 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the quotation of 9966.67 yuan/ton on March 1st. In March, the production of hydrofluoric acid enterprises remained stable, with sufficient supply of hydrofluoric acid. Downstream refrigerant production remained stable at a low level, with weak demand for hydrofluoric acid and insufficient support for the rise in hydrofluoric acid prices. The price of hydrofluoric acid remained temporarily stable, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials stabilized in March.

Market Overview and Forecast

An analyst from Shengyishe Aluminum Fluoride Industry believes that in terms of raw materials, fluorite prices have stopped falling and risen, while hydrofluoric acid prices are temporarily stable; In terms of demand, the production of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level, and the demand for aluminum fluoride is weak. In the future, the cost support for aluminum fluoride is limited, and there is sufficient supply and weak demand for aluminum fluoride. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic Shandong propane market has been fluctuating this week. On March 4th, the average market price of propane in Shandong was 5275 yuan/ton, and on March 8th, the average price was 5275 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, and it decreased by 9.32% compared to the same period last year.

As of March 8th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ March 8th

East China region/ 5050-5150 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5100-5150 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5050-5300 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 4850-5000 yuan/ton

This week (3.4-3.8), the Shandong propane market rose first and then fell, with prices remaining unchanged from the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, due to the rise in prices due to reasons, coupled with controllable on-site inventory, propane prices rose accordingly. After the rise, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market weakened, coupled with the warming weather and weakened demand for combustion, leading to a downward pressure on propane prices.

Saudi Aramco announced its CP in March, with propane at $630 per ton; Butane costs 640 US dollars per ton, while the contract price for propane and butane remains unchanged month on month. The landed cost in RMB is around 5160 yuan per ton for propane and 5279 yuan per ton for butane.

Overall, there is an expectation of a decrease in combustion and chemical demand in the future, and the upstream price support mentality will weaken. It is expected that the propane market will experience a narrow decline in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride slightly decreased this week. As of the 6th, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7587.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from the price of 7687.5 yuan/ton on February 28th, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.47%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is very abundant, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Stable price of ortho benzene with acceptable cost support

Recently, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has remained stable. As of the 6th, the price of ortho benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, which is consistent with the price of 8100 yuan/ton on the 28th. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site facilities is stable. In the short term, the trend of crude oil prices is declining, and the price of mixed xylene is stable. The temporary stability of ortho benzene prices provides certain cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price decline of the phthalic anhydride market is limited.

Demand side: DOP market’s on-demand procurement market is declining

This week, the downstream DOP market price trend has declined, with a price of 11630 yuan/ton as of the 6th, a 1.18% decrease from the price of 11800 yuan/ton on the 28th. Domestic DOP enterprises are operating normally, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, and downstream demand is average. The mainstream DOP price is 11600-11700 yuan/ton. The downstream DOP price trend has declined, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride is not good. The domestic phthalic anhydride market price trend has declined.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices has slightly declined, while the price of ortho xylene has remained stable. The downstream DOP market has declined, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reported serious losses. It is expected that the market price of ortho xylene will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the future.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOP prices in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the price of DOP was 11780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% from the price of 11810 yuan/ton on February 16th; Compared to February 1st, the price of 11780 yuan/ton has stabilized; On March 5th, the price of DOP was 11720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% compared to February 16th and 0.51% compared to February 1st. The prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and phthalic anhydride are weakly consolidating, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP is insufficient; After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises resumed production, and the supply of plasticizer DOP increased; Downstream demand recovery is slow, and the price of plasticizer DOP is weak and consolidating.

Weak consolidation of isooctanol prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12437.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% compared to the quotation of 12350 yuan/ton on February 16th; Compared to February 1st, the price of 12375 yuan/ton has increased by 0.51%; On March 5th, the price of isooctanol was 12337.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from February 29th and 0.30% from February 1st. During the Spring Festival, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, but after the holiday, it slowly recovered. The supply of isooctanol increased, but the demand for isooctanol did not recover well. In February, the price of isooctanol weakened and stabilized, while after the holiday, the raw material propylene fluctuated and rose, increasing cost support. In March, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized.

Downstream PVC prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 5th, the PVC quotation was 5629 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to the PVC quotation of 5596 yuan/ton on February 29th; Compared to February 17th, the price of PVC increased by 1.13% to 5566 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st, the price of PVC increased by 0.99% to 5574 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, PVC demand was weak, PVC prices fluctuated and fell, downstream rigid demand procurement, downstream manufacturers began to work after the holiday, PVC prices fluctuated and rose after the holiday, and demand for plasticizers slowly rebounded.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of raw material isooctanol is weak and consolidating, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP is insufficient; After the holiday, the PVC market rebounded slowly, and the demand for plasticizers rebounded slowly, with poor support from the rise of plasticizers. In the future, the cost support for plasticizers is insufficient, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. It is expected that DOP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the price of aluminum fluoride was 10150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on February 1st, which was 10350 yuan/ton; On March 4th, the price of aluminum fluoride was 10100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49% compared to February 29th and 2.42% compared to February 1st. After the holiday, aluminum fluoride enterprises resumed work, aluminum fluoride supply resumed, raw material hydrofluoric acid prices fluctuated and fell, aluminum fluoride costs decreased, downstream electrolytic aluminum resumed work poorly, downstream demand for aluminum fluoride was weak, and aluminum fluoride prices fluctuated and fell in February.

The price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 29th, the quoted price of hydrofluoric acid was 10016.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared to the quoted price of hydrofluoric acid on February 1st, which was 10083.33 yuan/ton; On March 4th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9966.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% compared to February 29th and 1.16% compared to February 1st. In February, the price of hydrofluoric acid slightly decreased. During the Spring Festival, some manufacturers started operating normally, coupled with insufficient downstream demand and high inventory of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers. After the holiday, about 50% of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers started operating, but there were still plant shutdowns. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid orders were poor, resulting in a decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices. Downstream, the overall transaction in the refrigerant industry is still good, but the production in the refrigerant industry is sluggish, and the procurement of hydrofluoric acid has not improved, resulting in a decline in the hydrofluoric acid market.

Poor resumption of downstream work

After the end of the Spring Festival, downstream aluminum enterprises have started construction one after another, but some enterprises have resumed work but have not yet resumed production at full capacity, and some enterprises have not yet resumed work; The basic enterprises that have resumed work and production are alloy ingot enterprises, a few aluminum plate and strip enterprises, and most aluminum rod enterprises have not yet resumed work. Domestic nationwide snowfall, limited logistics and transportation, and limited aluminum transactions. Downstream resumption of work is poor, and demand for aluminum fluoride is weak.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Aluminum Fluoride Industry, the price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell in February, resulting in a decrease in the cost of aluminum fluoride. Downstream electrolytic aluminum production was poor, and demand for aluminum fluoride remained weak. In the future, it is expected that hydrofluoric acid will recover, and in terms of supply and demand, the production of aluminum fluoride will increase. The supply of aluminum fluoride will increase, and the demand will be weak. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will be weak and consolidate in the future.