The phthalic anhydride market stopped falling and stabilized in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 7th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6816.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.73% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on July 1st, which was 6866.67 yuan/ton. In July, the price of ortho benzene stabilized, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists. In July, phthalic anhydride equipment was repaired, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises decreased, resulting in a reduction in phthalic anhydride supply. The downstream plasticizer market rose, and the operating load of plasticizer enterprise equipment decreased, weakening the demand support for phthalic anhydride. Due to sufficient supply and weak demand, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in July.
There is still sufficient supply to support the cost of phthalic anhydride
Sinopec’s quotation for ortho benzene is 7000 yuan/ton. The price of industrial naphthalene is fluctuating and stabilizing, while the cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists. In July, the phthalic anhydride equipment underwent maintenance, and the operating rate of the enterprise was consolidated, resulting in sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. The weakening of cost support and sufficient supply still provide support for the rise in phthalic anhydride prices in July.
Demand side: DOP prices fluctuate and rise
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 7th, the DOP price was 8259.17 yuan/ton, which first fell and then rose compared to the DOP price of 8259.17 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the overall price has stabilized; Compared to the DOP price of 8184.16 yuan/ton on July 2nd, it has increased by 0.92%. In July, DOP production decreased, and the operating rate of the plasticizer industry dropped to about 50%. The production of plasticizers also decreased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride weakened. The support for the rise in phthalic anhydride prices also weakened.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of demand, plasticizer companies have seen a decline in production, a decrease in plasticizer output, and weakened support for phthalic anhydride demand; In terms of supply, equipment maintenance in phthalic anhydride enterprises ensures sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. In the future, with sufficient supply and weak demand, it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will stabilize and stop falling.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market continued to decline this week, with an average price of 8050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7904 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.81% during the week.

On July 3rd, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $67.00 per barrel, a decrease of $0.45 or 0.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September was $68.80 per barrel, a decrease of $0.31 or 0.4%. Investors are concerned that US tariff policies may slow down energy demand, compounded by the expected impact of OPEC production increases.
Cost aspect: The market price of pure benzene has fallen. The atmosphere inside the Shandong refinery was relatively light during the week. East China ports continue to accumulate inventory, with average market performance. Overall, industry players are cautious and continue to monitor crude oil, external market trends, and production and sales dynamics.
Supply and demand side: The supply of styrene has increased, with no new equipment maintenance and some equipment increasing load. In terms of demand, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S is weak, and there is a strong demand for procurement.
Styrene external market: On July 3rd, the closing price of styrene market in Asia increased by $2.5/ton, with a closing price of $890-910/ton FOB Korea and $900-920/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: Due to maintenance and restart, as well as the commissioning of new facilities, there will be significant pressure on the supply side in the upstream pure benzene market. The current profit of the styrene market is still acceptable, but in the short term, the operating rate will increase and the supply side will be weak. It is expected that the styrene market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 3, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6366 yuan/ton. Compared with June 29 (reference price of n-butanol is 6500 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.05%.

This week, the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, showed a weak downward trend. During the week, the overall focus of the n-butanol market in Shandong region shifted downwards, and some factories lowered their n-butanol shipment prices by about 100-200 yuan/ton. As of July 3rd, the n-butanol market price in Shandong region is around 6350-6400 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
On the demand side: Within the week, there was a strong sentiment of observation in the n-butanol field, and downstream demand was mainly cautious in procurement, with weak transmission on the demand side.
Supply side: Currently, although some n-butanol units are temporarily shut down, the supply of goods on site is still relatively stable. High priced shipments in the Shandong market are slower, and the overall price difference between high and low prices has narrowed, resulting in average supply performance.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is relatively light, and there is no significant boost in demand performance. The overall supply and demand transmission in the market is weak. The n-butanol data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province will mainly adjust within a certain range, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes in supply and demand news.

In June, the focus of the domestic acetone market mainly fell. The acetone market in East China has been trading at an average price of 5450 yuan/ton since June 1st, but has dropped to 5180 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 4.95%. From the perspective of the national acetone market, there is an equally significant downward space.

In the first ten days of the year, the supply was sufficient, the price was reported low under the pressure of traders, and the social resources were sufficient after the Dragon Boat Festival. The port inventory rose to 28000 tons, and the supply of goods was abundant. The market center of gravity declined, falling to a market low of 5250 yuan/ton. After a period of terminal replenishment, the market once again entered a state of sluggish trading.
The geopolitical situation has changed, with a sharp drop in crude oil and negative costs in the latter half of the month. Crude oil has driven the decline of pure benzene, and styrene has experienced a deep decline in a single day. Pure benzene has fallen, dealing another blow to the already lukewarm acetone market. As the end of the month approaches, the market has fallen below 5200 yuan/ton, and trading is deadlocked.
As the end of the month approaches, there will be little positive news in the later stage, and the overall market is in a downward trend. At the end of the month, the market fell to the lowest point of the month, and negotiations in the East China region are at 5150-5180 yuan/ton.

In terms of equipment in June: Early shutdown equipment such as CNOOC Shell, Yanshan Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Huizhou Center Phase I, and Gaoqiao Petrochemical are still in operation. The 350000 ton/year unit of Tianjin Petrochemical was shut down for 40 days and resumed operation on June 2nd. The 320000 ton/year phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou was shut down for maintenance on June 13th, lasting about 30 days.
It is expected to remain weak and difficult to change in July. From the supply side, the Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Phenol Ketone Plant plans to produce products in mid July, resulting in an increase in domestic acetone supply. From the perspective of imports, Saudi Arabia’s facilities have been shut down for maintenance, Middle Eastern sources are limited, and Thailand’s import resources are normal. Currently, it appears that the import volume has slightly decreased. From the perspective of demand, downstream bisphenol A and isopropanol units have been improved, but overall procurement is still mainly based on demand. From a cost perspective, the external environment remains weak, and pure benzene is expected to continue to decline, making it difficult to support acetone. It is expected that the acetone market will continue to operate weakly in July.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this month, with an average market price of 1275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1273 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has dropped by 0.16%, a year-on-year decrease of 45.22%. On June 26th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 84.42, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 0.06% from the lowest point of 84.37 points on June 19, 2025. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1270 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1300-1400 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in June. The average market price of light soda ash from the beginning of the month to the end of the month was around 1284 yuan/ton, which was 35.56% higher than the same period last year. Downstream purchases should be made as needed.
Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with the overall weak performance of upstream raw material soda ash in June. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will rise in June 2025, with an average price of 16475 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17020 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 3.31%.

On June 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 103.58, a decrease of 0.23 points from yesterday, a decrease of 22.71% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (November 29, 2016), and an increase of 38.79% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
At the beginning of the month, the overall fluctuation was not significant, but the price center continued to move up at a slow pace, indicating that in the market’s supply-demand tug of war, multiple forces had a slight advantage, which in turn pushed prices to show a moderate upward trend. The fluctuation range of lead prices in the middle of the month is relatively narrow. Although prices have shown a slight downward trend, the price center still moves up at a slow pace, and the lead price trend shows a strong bias. At the end of the month, some refineries began to undergo maintenance for primary lead, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in lead prices.
supply end
The supply situation of domestic lead concentrate remains stable, the production process of mining enterprises is progressing in an orderly manner, and the supply of raw materials is abundant. However, some lead smelting enterprises are affected by factors such as equipment maintenance and environmental inspections, which have limited the release of production capacity to a certain extent. This has slowed down the growth rate of lead ingot spot output, and the spot supply in the market tends to be tight, providing strong support for the rise of lead prices.
demand side
According to the operating rate data of lead-acid batteries, there is still a slight upward trend, but the overall market terminal consumption situation has not shown substantial improvement, and some enterprises are looking forward to the market recovery in July.
Prediction of future trends
As the traditional peak sales season for electric bicycles approaches, the fundamentals of the lead market have shown some signs of improvement recently. However, the overall market is still in a weak supply-demand situation, so it is recommended to approach the increase in lead prices with caution.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward this week. From June 16th to 23rd, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 9275 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.35% during the cycle. This week, the butadiene market saw a slight increase. Recently, crude oil prices have risen, and the overall macro situation is improving. The downstream synthetic rubber market has performed well, which has led to an overall upward trend in the butadiene market this cycle. Domestic mainstream production enterprises have generally raised their ex factory prices. However, the overall purchasing intention of downstream in recent times is biased towards rigid demand, and there is a lack of demand support to limit the weekly increase.

On the cost side, the overall crude oil market price closed higher, with the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $74.93 per barrel as of June 20th. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August contract is $77.01 per barrel. On the one hand, the escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to a tight supply of crude oil and a significant rise in the international oil market; On the other hand, the trade negotiations between China and the United States have made good progress, and coupled with the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, favorable factors have supported the international oil market, with the crude oil market mainly rising.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9600 yuan/ton, with an increase of 400 yuan/ton this week.
Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally without any exports, and the quotation is temporarily suspended.
Demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the butadiene rubber market has slightly increased. As of June 23, the market for butadiene rubber in East China has been narrowly consolidated. The futures price of Shunding rubber fluctuated and consolidated, while the supply price of Shunding rubber remained stable temporarily, with slight adjustments in merchant offers. At present, the mainstream prices in Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11900~12150 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced at 11700~11900 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: From a macro perspective, the recent strengthening of the crude oil market will provide a certain boost to the mentality of the spot market. In terms of supply and demand, there will still be some maintenance equipment restarted in China in the near future. The market expects the supply side to be relatively loose. Although holders have a strong reluctance to sell recently, the overall demand side still tends to be rigid in the near future, lacking demand boost, and the market continues to face significant resistance to upward movement. Overall, the supply and demand mentality in the butadiene market is strong, and it is expected that the short-term range oscillation trend will be the main trend.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market adjusted narrowly this week, with an average price of 8230 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8226 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.05% during the week.

News: On June 19th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.80 per barrel, an increase of $0.3 or 0.4%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $78.85 per barrel, an increase of $2.15 or 2.8%.
Cost aspect: Recently, international oil prices have strengthened due to macroeconomic favorable conditions and geopolitical deterioration, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate widely. Pure benzene production has rebounded, and the supply is relatively wide. The pure benzene market has followed the trend of crude oil to rise widely and then fluctuated slightly.
Supply and demand side: Partial styrene plants have restarted, with both production and capacity utilization increasing month on month, indicating loose supply. In terms of demand, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S is weak, with low profit contraction and high finished product inventory, which has dragged down the demand for styrene.
Styrene external market: On June 19th, the closing price of the styrene market in Asia increased by $5/ton, with a closing price of $940-950/ton FOB Korea and $950-960/ton CFR China..
Market forecast: In the short term, geopolitical uncertainty drives wide fluctuations in oil prices, and styrene is greatly affected by this. Therefore, in the short term, styrene will maintain a high volatility trend.

This cycle, the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, with an overall downward trend. At the beginning of this week, the market continued the trend of last week with a slight increase, but with lower downstream purchasing intentions and a lack of demand support, the butadiene market began to decline. Entering the later part of the week, with the weak trend of downstream synthetic rubber futures market and equipment maintenance, the market expects weak downstream demand and a lack of downstream support, and the butadiene market began to decline in the middle of the week.

On the cost side: The crude oil market price has risen significantly. As of the 11th, the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $68.15 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.77 per barrel. The crude oil market has seen a significant increase, mainly due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East region, as well as the good progress made in the China US trade negotiations and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, which have supported the upward trend of the international oil market.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9200 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 600 yuan/ton this week.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the recent (6.1~6.11) butadiene rubber market has fluctuated and weakened. As of June 11th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 11650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.18% from 11910 yuan/ton on the 1st. The price of raw material butadiene continues to decline, and the cost center of butadiene rubber shifts downwards; Shunding rubber production slightly decreased, easing supply pressure; Downstream tire production slightly decreased, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of June 11th, the mainstream prices in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were reported at 11550-11800 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: In the near future, domestic butadiene plants will restart, domestic production will increase, and the arrival of port cargo in East China will also be good. Overall, the market supply is relatively loose. The downstream demand side is unlikely to show significant improvement in the near future, and the decline in the futures market is dragging down market sentiment. The overall fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that the butadiene market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12500 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12533/ton, with a price increase of 0.27%.

Most domestic manufacturers have stable quotes for activated carbon this week, with some rising. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9000-13000 yuan/ton, with tight supply and strong demand supporting the price increase of coconut shell activated carbon. Industry insiders are mostly optimistic about the future market.
Internationally, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells worldwide, will face multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand will experience a reduction in coconut production due to drought and pest infestations, while some production areas in Indonesia will be affected by abnormal rainfall at the end of the rainy season, resulting in a decrease in coconut shell collection efficiency. In the short term, the import price of coconut shell charcoal will continue to operate at a high level.
Prediction: The combination of favorable factors supports the rise in activated carbon prices, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and strengthen in the short term.